Future Of Collecting

[Peter Bleed]

A friend forwarded me this link about “collectibles” that have suddenly become totally worthless.

 

http://www.thestreet.com/story/13162897/1/15-collectibles-that-are-completely-worthless.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO

 

I find it annoying that my friend equates Japanese swords with Hummel figurines, but looking at this list of now worthless stuff convinces me that there is a future to our hobby, especially  after the recent and wonderful discussion we just had about the potential “crash” of Nippon-to.  I doubt that the objects of our interest will drop like Franklin Mint thimbles or Beanie Babies.

We must expect changes and we can’t ignore market events.  Appreciation of objects, -- call it “collecting” – is subject to changing taste so interest in Japanese swords may well fade. Japanese swords have a good history of interest, but they have seen collapse. In the late 19^th century, loads of them were sold into Louisiana and the Caribbean as cane knives.  And then there is the reality that the world of Japanese swords is very well organized. There is lots of good information on swords and there is pretty clear agreement on what is “good” or at least “desirable”.  

Given all of this, collectors can recognize categories of swords and related gear that will have:

1. steady, and generally high, value.
2. decreasing value and little long term interest to collectors.
3.  decreasing value altho they remain worthy collectibles.

We should aspire to the first category – if we can afford it and wish to pay for - or develop our own - expert advice.  This category includes papered, pedigreed stuff. No surprises, no risk, few bargains, but great satisfaction.

Obvious losers consist of stuff nobody wants –unpolished mumei shoto,  short  kazu-uchi mono even with a signature,  military swords in rough condition, and swords that have visible flaws. The list could be nuanced and made longer, but even a new collector can easily acquire the skill to recognize this stuff – and avoid it.

                I think the next generation of sword collector should be directed to this third category. These are swords that have history and researchable pedigree, although they are  NOT recognized by the taste makers as serious stuff. Training your eyes to appreciate the differences between a jyo-saku and jyo-jyosaku is tough, but looking closely at a “mere” jyo-saku can reveal the wonder and artistry of the Japanese sword. Likewise, there are schools and categories that don’t get much respect – most Mino, Takada, Nio etc. – although they are interesting in historical and artistic terms.

Peter

[Dave R]

 I was rather amused by the article linked, and lets face it most of us knew these things were bubbles bound to burst one day. Regarding Nihonto, hmmm... Having been a collector of arms and armour for the last 50 years I believe that the top of the market will always reward the informed buyer. However increasing rarity of items no longer made (antiques and vintage) and an expanding collector base have brought about price increases in every area of the field....you just have to wait!

 Once upon a time no serious collector bought anything made after 1815, small swords, flintlocks and Napoleonic uniforms. Oriental weapons were treated as interior decoration, holes drilled through the piece to screw it on the wall.

 Go round an antique Arms Fair now, swords I bought for £1.50 now fetch £250.00, percussion shotguns that dealers literally threw on a bonfire to sell the metal as scrap ( I knew dealers who did this  ) now fetch hundreds and even thousands.

  Nihonto collectors and Antique Arms collectors are not the same beast by any means, but in my experience yesterdays "tat" has a nasty habit of working it's way up in value as the best is removed from the market and it is all that is left.

[Kronos]

I think the main difference between everything in that article and nihonto is that there's 1) skill involved in the creation of nihonto and 2) There's a finite supply. Anything with a finite supply, especially that is somewhat perishable with only so many polishes (not to mention the amateurs ruining them constantly) that they'll inevitably go up in price. It's just a matter of when demand outstrips supply. As has been mentioned, the rarer the better.

[Fuuten]

Although Kronos (i think) hit the nail on the head, i wanted to add that, for one these antique's weren't made to be collectible, and secondly the fact they really are part of the history and the cultural relevance they hold will ensure the hobby (or collecting) never dies out entirely.

[Kronos]

Although Kronos (i think) hit the nail on the head, i wanted to add that, for one these antique's weren't made to be collectible, and secondly the fact they really are part of the history and the cultural relevance they hold will ensure the hobby (or collecting) never dies out entirely.

 

Exactly, although that I'd like to add this is all long term thinking, in the short term (20 years) prices could plummet before rebounding.

[bigjohnshea]

Building on what Kronos said:

 

Of the 15 items shown in the article, none of them have the same qualities as Nihonto.  

 

By qualities of Nihonto I mean:  Historical value, artistic value, scientific value (via metallurgy), social significance (link to a nobel class system), scholarly value, etc.  All of these resulting in Nihonto potentially being something that is preserved in a museum or desired by discerning collectors.

 

The only museum displaying Hess Trucks, Pogs and Cabbage Patch Kids is a "museum" for people who specifically love them, or a museum like the Henry Ford Museum, that has collections of incredible engineering achievements, as well as collections of some less important things related to those achievements.

 

Furthermore the article does not really distinguish between rare things within its own categories.  For example: an actual painting by Thomas Kinkade would never sell for just $30.  Even limited run and/or signed lithographs of his paintings would still fetch prices in the high three to four figure range.  The print of his work that is sold at Target or Hobby Lobbywould sell for $30 or perhaps even less.  The same would be said for Lladro's.  Limited editions, and retired piece aren't the ony factor.  Condition matters.  Size and impressiveness of the piece matters.  etc. etc.  The purpose of this last paragraph here is to imply that the article is ridiculously imprecise to begin with, and the writer likely never intended it to be used in a discussion about something like Nihonto.

[Brian]

Weapons will seldom drop in value. It's a man thing.
Combined with the fact that value in collectibles increases with reference works, and English references are constantly being published, I think the collecting of Nihonto and values of the mid to upper range are only going to increase. As collecting of German militaria slows down due to the quality of the fakes, so are collectors turning to other fields that are less prone to faking. Yes, we know how many fakes there are out there, but they are generally still identifiable and cannot be reproduced for dirt cheap.

 

Brian

[lonely panet]

its hard to gaze into the crystal ball but, yet nihonto will loss value, Ebay has made them a common thing now. once they were a hard to find item.

they will never become worthless, but the next bit trend in the sword market is military sword, very big at the moment,

 

Mint gunto's with seki blades $2000

mantetsu in mint gunto fittings $4000 USD

 

neat Kai guntos $2500 +

naval Kyu guntos $4000+

naval dirks a stupid $1500+

 

the only thing to not rocket off in value is army Kyu gunto, the masses don't like them for some reason,

 

but the biggest trend is seki style blades are more popular the ever, thanks to the affordable price and heaps of information

 

so the hob-snobs will have to endure the noobs asking heaps of silly questions about there rusty ugly sword the just bought before buying any books

 

regards H

[Loco Al]

Peter, there seems to be a bit of angst in your opening post. It is perhaps not without good reason.

See this thread: http://www.militaria.co.za/nmb/topic/16737-your-worst-purchase/

 

These collectibles are not investments. They are toys. Sometimes, very expensive toys. Sometimes, very rare exclusive toys.

 

Alan

[Pete Klein]

Brian: "Weapons will seldom drop in value. It's a man thing".

 

And one of the reasons they don't go up is, 'they're not a woman thing'! Now then, this can be good or bad, depending upon your perspective. If you want to sell quickly for big buckage, then it's a bad thing. If you wish to continue to purchase what are actually quite reasonably priced antiquities, then it's a good thing. The central reason many art related purchases go through the roof is the involvement of women, especially when they have very rich husbands. Auction house managers, museum curators, antique shop salespersons, they all know this. And it's almost always based upon the perception of social status.

 

ROFLMAO!

 

PS: if you don't believe me, check out Tetsubin sales on Yahoo! Japan some time.

[Grey Doffin]

If any of you would like a good read on the market for art I can recommend 2 books.  Duveen by Behrman is a rolicking romp through old master paintings, the wealthy American Robber Barons who collected them, and the wizard who made it happen.  The 12 Million Dollar Stuffed Shark looks at today's market for contemporary art, which is nuts.  Nothing specific to collecting Nihonto but lots to say about collecting in general.

Grey

[Fuuten]

Brian: "Weapons will seldom drop in value. It's a man thing".

 

And one of the reasons they don't go up is, 'they're not a woman thing'! Now then, this can be good or bad, depending upon your perspective. If you want to sell quickly for big buckage, then it's a bad thing. If you wish to continue to purchase what are actually quite reasonably priced antiquities, then it's a good thing. The central reason many art related purchases go through the roof is the involvement of women, especially when they have very rich husbands. Auction house managers, museum curators, antique shop salespersons, they all know this. And it's almost always based upon the perception of social status.

 

ROFLMAO!

 

PS: if you don't believe me, check out Tetsubin sales on Yahoo! Japan some time.

 

You just scared me just a little bit, museum curators ok, but wives with rich husbands sounds like the worst place for any antique to be..  (not sure if you meant the phrasing like that..)

[Ken-Hawaii]

Geez, Brian, I hope you don't say anything in front of my wife about weapons being a "man thing." She swings a pretty mean sword! Three dan, too, not to mention a deadly shot with a rifle!

 

Ken

[seattle1]

Hello All:

 It is easy to confuse one of a kind art objects subject to collection with "collectibles" which, by definition are objects subject to limitless replication. Traditional Nihonto of any age can be reproduced and faked, but not limitlessly. For anyone seriously interested in "the art market" and art collecting it is very enlightening to read Joseph Alsop. The Rare Art Traditions: The History of Art Collecting and Its Linked Phenomena Wherever These Have Appeared. (Princeton University Press, 1982), 691 pp., ISBN 0-06-010091-5. Under Collecting's General Laws he proposes three binding relations: 1. All collectors' categories are created by collectors; 2. By creating their own categories, all collectors create their own rarities; 3. In all forms of collecting, the collectors' category is always controlling, since all collectors require their prizes to belong to the correct category. The power of the thus defined "rarity" is so important that fakes and reproductions must be avoided at all costs. One cost is investing in the learning process as a collector, and any other is the periodic shinsa, which in one guise or another, will always be with us.

 Arnold F.

[Adrian]

The golden rule which says "they just don't make these anymore" applies to all antiques. This means the supply is inevitably limited and a relevant increase in demand will automatically trigger a price increase.

 

 However, this doesn't mean that all antiques will become more and more expensive if the global population continues to grow. (even in absence of wars/important disasters/important economic crisis and so on) . The trend is moving very fast towards owning high-tech gadgets which subsequently become obsolete with insane speed.  The spending power of larger and larger parts of the population is used for purchasing stuff which drops to almost zero value within 2-3-4 years.

 

 Large companies know they cannot make zillions by pushing the trend towards antiques (a limited resource) so they use all the means available (and these days they have access to a whole new array of methods) to push the general trend towards purchasing every year the last i-crap, the largest LED TV and so on.

 

  If the current trend continues, I believe that in 50 years the percentage of the global population interested in antiques will dramatically decrease. Sure enough, not all antiques will be equally hit, but as a general trend I don't see tomorrow's world driving towards collecting ancient stuff.

[davepsilon]

I hear it oft-repeated (and oft-blamed unfairly on millenials) but to me it is all about telling a story.  If an antique tells a story that people connect with then it will be valuable.  I don't think pogs or beanie babies tell a timeless story and the market seems to agree with me.  While with a sword people can connect to a historic, symbolic, or aestheic story.  I think these kind of stories are more timeless, but I am sure there will be periods of both rising (original post's category 1) and decreasing value (original post's category 3).

 

If you collect what you like, your collection will always have peronal value.

[Isocyanide]

Not sure if I agree with Alan about swords not being an investment.  Fewer and fewer people are holding more and more of the world's wealth and they are looking for avenues to spend it. There's been a huge boom in high end art being purchased by these people and I'm sure high end Japanese swords are on their radars.  If you could get a high end sword into an elitist auction you could probably make a multiple fold profit.  I was browsing through Christie's and was blown away at what people are spending on some swords.

 

As far as future interest goes.  I'm in my early 30s and was part of the huge Japanese anime, manga and video game boom.  I think this phenomenon was able to hold out to kids at least 10 years younger than me (thanks Pokemon).  So I think interest in Japanese culture is going to be around for a while.  Whether or not that translates into collecting nihonto, I don't know, it did for me.  

 

Steve

[Clement]

This phenomenon is surely involved in the interest of Japanese culture and thus Nihonto Steve. But i think there is also another thing, more unconscious : the searching of the beauty.

There always be people, like our community, searching for it and speaking of Nihonto, they are so beautiful to see !

 

In all art related hobby, i think this is a central aspect.

 

The more the knowledge is extended, the more emotions gets stronger as we realize how much this blade in front of us is beautiful.

 

I like tell myself "you are watching the best blades ever made by humanity in all time" That is my Nihonto definition/representation.

It may be over emphasized but hey, i like to see beautiful things