Glen,
I think you simplify things too much.
It is not only the shape and design that make a TOSHO or KO-TOSHO TSUBA but there are several criteria. The earlier type is much thinner, almost always large (> 80 mm, often much larger), has a special cross-section and the patina is not at all that easy to reduplicate in my opinion!
And I never expect anyone to judge and classify a TSUBA with a 100% 'safety'. Here at the NMB, we have always agreed upon (and respected) that actual ORIGAMI by the NBTHK are educated opinions of a panel of experts who have seen thousands of TSUBA in-hand. Within the existing system of classification, we do not have more expertise elsewhere. But as humans make mistakes, wrong attributions cannot be excluded.
But I am willing to learn, so I am looking forward to your proposal of an expanded classification system. The problem might be to convince the NBTHK.....