Kronos

Dante's Inferno which is a very famous poem has 9 circles of hell, the 9th being treachery.

Exactly, although that I'd like to add this is all long term thinking, in the short term (20 years) prices could plummet before rebounding.

I think the main difference between everything in that article and nihonto is that there's 1) skill involved in the creation of nihonto and 2) There's a finite supply. Anything with a finite supply, especially that is somewhat perishable with only so many polishes (not to mention the amateurs ruining them constantly) that they'll inevitably go up in price. It's just a matter of when demand outstrips supply. As has been mentioned, the rarer the better.

I agree with Darcy that the middle is in a perpetual state of squeeze. However for a lot of people spending even $10k on a sword is an unrealistic proposition so the top end for them to own even one is the middle to which they may supplement it with a couple from the bottom. Not to mention the difference between an $8k sword and a $20k sword is not so great as to bring up the question, is it worth the large additional cost for a slightly better piece? As for tosugu specifically, who wants to own just one Tsuba? I think part of it is if you have $5k's worth of Tsuba then a lot of people would rather have that spread as one quite nice one of a couple grand and then 5 or 6 $500 ones rather than one single piece unlike swords where more tend to be happy with a single item. Plus there's all the sword guys like me who may have a passing interest but sometimes find it hard to tell the difference and thus anything extra spent would be wasted if the additional quality can't be recognized. So it seems to be being squeezed but there's less seen forces in the market that keep everything balanced and the biggest factor in any pricing now more than ever seems to be JPY strength.

Humidity does not damage lacquer itself in the slightest whether it be 0% or 100%. it's all about the wood expanding or contracting inside that creates cracking of the lacquer where the wood changes size and the lacquer remains the same. At home I have a particularly annoying door that is very hard to close in winter when it's expanded which many of you may of experienced (in summer for most in hot countries). Sharp changes in humidity/temperature are the main problem such as when shipping or a change in environment from Japan to Europe. It's all about acclimatization at the end of the day so if Brian's koshirae has been kept at a constant 30% RH for 20 years then that is perfect and any changes are more likely to do damage than not, although it can take years in a low humidity environment to cause damage as the lacquer protects the wood, through diffusion it will eventually balance the moisture in the wood with that of the outside environment. I presume in Japan they're kept separate from blades because Japan is a very humid country and the koshirae would be worn subjecting it to Japans natural humidity, while the blades when not being worn would be kept at a low humidity to stop rusting. Ideally 55-60% RH is perfect for Japanese lacquerware as when the wood is cured in Japan it is acclimatized to Japans humidity, unless however it's been kept at a constant low humidity for years without signs of damage since. Here's an interesting article on the subject of conservation: http://www.bishopmuseum.org/research/pdfs/cnsv-lacquer.pdf

The beauty of auctions, it's Of course the buyer didn't get fried as at the end of the day they were willing to pay $3100. This is the beauty of auctions as the seller simply listed it starting at $500 which would of been a bargain and had no say on the realised price. At the end of the day if you have 2 people prepared to pay $100k for it it'll sell for that, if they're only willing to pay $500 it'll sell for that. So listing items onebay is good for |Japanese dealers as they hope and what often happens is people will pay more than what most would consider the "market value".

Details sent. So far Paul's been outstanding and offered the best service I've arguably had anywhere, not just in terms of Nihonto. If anyone needs polishing/papering orto buy swords from Japan I can't recommend him highly enough.

Agreed, if you're living in Japan, even if you know nothing of Nihonto all you need to do is go to the local sword shop and you'll have a pretty good idea of what your swords worth. There's even books with all the list prices updated yearly. Somewhat like Toko Taikan but more about the pricing. Speaaking of which I'd be interested in such a book if anyone knows where I could get one.

I thought it was maybe around the 1.7m yen mark but who knows.

The sword registration takes place the second Tuesday of each month in Tokyo iirc. Swords are examined by senior members of the local NBTHK branch who generally know their stuff, but mistakes can happen. Hopefully Kunitaro can find out why it failed as there only needs to be 1 aspect that isn't traditional for it to fail.

Momoyama/early shinto. There were a couple of Jumyo but you could probably find some oshigata to narrow it down.

It wasn't working for me either last night but will check when I get home.

http://www.aoijapan.com/ would be a good place to start, or even in the for sale section here good deals come up often, although I'd recommend saving up while you read books so you get a good knowledge base to make good decisions while figuring out what you like.

A few things, firstly it looks somewhat older than 18-19th century, probably Kanbun Shinto so circa 1660. As has already been said anyone offering a "preservation polish" is an amateur and more likely to do harm than good. Although there are a few non traditionally trained polishers who can do a decent job for low level items that don't warrant $3k spent, you could probably count them on one hand and even then reshaping as would be needed with the tip might be a stretch. To "preserve it" all you need to do is keep it lightly oiled with light mineral oil/sewing machine oil and that will stop any degradation. The signature is not necessarily gimei but the only match I can see would probably be this guy http://nihontoclub.com/smiths/KUN1898. I've found an example where he's signed fujiwara Kuniyuki but not simply Kuniyuki but it's possible. As for the tip it's hard to tell where the boshi ends so whether it can be polished out or not. Your best bet is to try and see if there's anyone nearby who could take a look in hand or possibly take it to the next sword show in the USA where you'll get much better advice.

It looks quite tired to me with possibly the hamon running off the edge or at least perilously close. There are infinitely better options at that price point.

Yeah, the Nobukuni generations are a bit unclear although some are attributed to specific smiths like Shikibu-no-jo Nobukuni etc I was just wondering out of interest more than anything.

Very nice Nick, do the papers place it to a specific Nobukuni?

Looks like it could be a gimei of this guy.

It looks pre-muromachi and the horimono seems to be added later. The Shiogiji isn't as wide as one would expect from Yamato.

Thanks for sharing, that is a wonderful polish that really brings out the qualities of a fine sword. I can easily see Andrew becoming the first western mukansa before too long. Just out of interest do you know what his waiting times are like, or were when you arranged the polish?

Yes, Isopropyl alcohol with a microfiber cloth would be ideal, followed by mineral oil or sewing machine oil. I'd stay away from gun oil personally. Like you say, as long as you don't touch the nakago that should do it. As for the mei, from comparing a few examples it looks good although not particularly well done. What I've discovered recently from personal experience is that no matter how good or bad it is, not until you get it in front of a shinsa panel will you know for sure.

I'm more than happy to courier swords from the UK and back again if there's enough interest.

The other 14 swords that were with it are easily identified so it's either in the collection of someone who knows what they have either in the usa or Japan, or it's been destroyed.

There could be a lot of reasons for a nijimei on osafune blades from that time so not too much to worry about. The signatures not a match for the one in Markus' book (2nd gen?) although there's some similarities. With the names being listed as about the same level by markus then it's potentially a very good sword. Can you post a picture of the full blade?

Makino clan maybe?