Are Contengency Gunto (Type 3) Underpriced?

[Bruce Pennington]

After re-reading Nick Komiya’s discussion of the origins of the “Contingency Standard Sword”, I noticed the order was to produce “3,000 blades annually at a maximum cost of 80 Yen for a sword.” Assuming the gunto hit the streets in mid-1940, it was produced 5 years. That would be only 15,000 Contingency gunto made during the war. My guess is that they must have made much more than that. We see far too many of them on the daily market. They must have become fairly popular. The very high quality versions with nihonto blades is probably an indicator of that. It is said that the Allies collected 500,000 gunto at the end of the war, and half were destroyed.

I’m just working out percentages here. I have read that there were 180,000 NCO Type 95s made, so even if ALL 180,000 were part of the 500,000 collected (which we know wasn’t the case), that would leave 320,000 Officer gunto. If only 15,000 Contingency gunto were made, and ALL of them were collected (again, not likely), they made up only 4.6%. Personally, my guess would be more like only half were collected, so that’s down to 2.3%. So, given all other sales and circulation variables are neutralized, we should only see 2 Contingency gunto for sale out of every 100 officer gunto on the market.

I haven’t done a survey of sales, but my gut says that while there are less Contingency sold than Type 98, it’s far higher than 2 of 100. Yes? So, there must have been more than 3,000 made per year. Still, there ARE less of them than the 98’s, so that should cause their collection value to be a bit higher, though, that’s counter-balanced by the fact that they tend to be lower quality blades than an average 98; except for the nihonto, custom order version, which then should put THAT version back into the more-rare category, and therefore move valuable. If the custom gunto were, say, 10% of total Contingency blade production, then they would make up only .2% of Japanese officer swords!!! Since they are that rare, and usually have RJT nihonto in them, I’d say they are currently way under-priced!

 

Thoughts?

[David Flynn]

Bruce I don't know where you obtained these figures?  Are these figures just for Japan?  Or have all the surrenders been taken into account?

[Stephen]

Whole lot of speculation going on in here.

[IJASWORDS]

Bruce , answering your question from an anecdotal personal view point only, I have basically collected nearly every gunto that comes my way . And my collection contains 15% Contingency gunto. Not a scientific guide I know , but this is about what I see in the market . 

From another angle , I think ALL gunto are under valued . 

[vajo]

Sorry for the question what is a contingency gunto. I'm not familiar with this term.

[PNSSHOGUN]

I believe it's the Type 3 being discussed Chris.

[Shamsy]

Technically, the army would have officially designated it 九八式呂号軍刀, Type 98 Model B Sword. But it has so many names now, Type 3 or 0 is the common, if misleading name.

[vajo]

Ah thanks now its clear.

 

What makes the price of a sword? The blade, the koshirae or both?

 

The value should be the blade. The condition and the quality of the koshirae is an addition to the blade. I personally like the type 3 koshirae much more then the type98.

[David Flynn]

Blade, No.1

[PNSSHOGUN]

Yes blade first and foremost, there are obvious exceptions in regards to rare or unique Koshirae but those are a very small subset of collecting for Gunto.

[dwmc]

In approximately the past three months on Ebay under the category of Shin Gunto in completed listings.

 

1. 66 type 98 ( 100% )

 

2. 15 type 3 ( 22% )

 

3. 11 NCO ( 16% )

 

4. 12 Kai-Gunto ( 18% )

 

Percentages based in comparison to 66 type 98's. These percentages are obviously not conclusive to overall numbers of Japanese bring backs, but thought it was rather interesting.

 

Dave M.

[Bruce Pennington]

Dave,

 

Wow, you spent some time gathering that data! Thanks for that!

 

I would modify the numbers in that the percentage requires adding all the gunto together for the total of 104.

So:

98 - 63%

Contingency (type 3) - 14.4%

NCO - 10.5%

Kai - 11.5%

 

But it is a good example of a spot-check number. 15 out of 104 were Contingency. If representative, it backs up my suposition that many more were made than the govt order of 3,000 per year.

[Bruce Pennington]

Bruce I don't know where you obtained these figures?  Are these figures just for Japan?  Or have all the surrenders been taken into account?

David,

 

I went back to the books and discovered that the 500,000 number was just the American number. One book simply states "400,000 to 500,000" collected, but doesn't specify by whom. Whereas, Fuller specifies that AMERICAN numbers collected were 661,621. He also specifies that "372,609 were dispersed as torphies, to museums, and technical use. The remaining 289,012 were destroyed." He didn't say his source, but the specificity implies these numbers came from actual records.

 

Fuller speculated that the total Allied swords collected could have been as high as 1,000,000.

 

Another discovery after re-looking at sources: The Type 95 total production was more likely to have been 288,000! Nick's chart from Army records shows 168,950 for years '41-'45. Assuming the low end rate given, the years of '36-40 would have produced another 120,000, giving a total of 288,950.

[PNSSHOGUN]

Apart from the very high quality examples with RJT blades, lacquered Ito etc etc I have always found the Type 3 rather unimpressive compared to a similar quality Type 98 of the same year. There is something quite splendid about the Type 98 and Kai Gunto that the Type 3 just can't compete with. Perhaps many other collectors feel the same way and that's why they are comparatively cheaper, even the really nice ones. Even if they are considered "rare", like the Type 95 NCO, they simply don't excite me as a collector.

 

Just for myself I have only seen a handful of Type 3 I would consider purchasing, whereas everyday I see Type94/ 98's or Kai Gunto I would happily buy if my bank account let me.

[dwmc]

Agree, Bruce. Either way you add the numbers, surprising amount of contingency swords. All I can say about the possible number of (Bring Backs) is to consider the number of allied troops in the Pacific Theater and occupied Japan. Not all brought home swords of course, but my father managed to bring home five. Considering the possibility of troops bringing several as opposed to just one could change the numbers substantially.

 

John, I agree with your theory also. The only sword I've ever sold out of my collection was a standard type 3. Even though the very high quality type 3's can be quite nice. I feel the most people would probably pick the higher end 94 or 98's given the choice...

 

Dave M.

[Bruce Pennington]

Yes, I failed to consider aesthetics. No matter how rare an item is, if collectors didn’t find it appealing, they’re not going to be interested in buying, and if they do buy, the price will be lower.

[dwmc]

Through the years, I passed on at least a dozen reasonably priced Type 95's. Feeling (somewhat arrogantly) they were simply an imposter of the 98's. However, like Mark Twain, I have never been able to realize an good opportunity until it cease to be one...

 

Dave M.

[vajo]

Very interesting thread. I enjoy reading!