Jūyō & TJ pass rates

[Jussi Ekholm]

Here in the western world we have slightly limited amount of exposure to Jūyō level stuff for many of us. Of course those who collect high end stuff could be in different position but for many of us getting to handle Jūyō items is a rare feat. I think we might have some misconceptions and false beliefs about Jūyō shinsa etc because we just lack information about them. I've been doing lots of reading on Jūyō swords last year & this year, unfortunately my reading has been bit selective. I was really amazed today as I found out the numbers of items sent to shinsa sessions, and they were out in plain sight all these years for me but I've skipped over that information for multiple years. Granted some years ago I didn't have the interest and curiosity for Jūyō that I currently have.

 

But here are the numbers of items sent to Jūyō and TJ shinsa and passes from c.1996 to 2018, these are provided by the NBTHK so no mysticism or speculation, just pure data. I do have bunch of older info as well but I chose those years as that is continuous timeline of most recent shinsa backwards.

 

Jūyō 42

Swords 1174 (not sure about this) submissions – 115 passes (95 Kotō, 20 Shintō)

Jūyō 43

Swords 837 submissions – 144 passes (120 Kotō, 24 Shintō)

Jūyō 44

Swords 805 submissions – 147 passes (113 Kotō, 34 Shintō)

Jūyō 45

Swords 938 submissions – 155 passes (114 Kotō, 41 Shintō)

Jūyō 46

Swords 911 submissions – 200 passes (152 Kotō, 48 Shintō)

Jūyō 47

Swords 994 submissions – 189 passes (149 Kotō, 40 Shintō)

Jūyō 48

Swords 1011 submissions – 186 passes (140 Kotō, 46 Shintō)

Jūyō 49

Swords 1020 submissions – 226 passes (181 Kotō, 45 Shintō)

Jūyō 50

Swords 1073 submissions – 185 passes (145 Kotō, 40 Shintō)

Jūyō 51

Swords 1106 submissions – 203 passes (164 Kotō, 39 Shintō)

Jūyō 52

Swords 1001 submissions – 114 passes (97 Kotō, 17 Shintō)

Jūyō 53

Swords 992 submissions – 155 passes (135 Kotō, 20 Shintō)

Jūyō 54

Swords 979 submissions – 88 passes (83 Kotō, 5 Shintō)

Jūyō 55

Swords 703 submissions – 107 passes (93 Kotō, 14 Shintō)

Jūyō 56

Swords 724 submissions – 53 passes (47 Kotō, 6 Shintō)

Jūyō 57

Swords 552 submissions – 31 passes (26 Kotō, 9 Shintō)

Jūyō 58

Swords 356 submissions – 47 passes (38 Kotō, 9 Shintō)

Jūyō 59

Swords 467 submissions – 105 passes (80 Kotō, 25 Shintō)

Jūyō 60

Swords ?? submissions – 127 passes (98 Kotō, 29 Shintō)

Jūyō 61

Swords 829 submissions – 165 passes (136 Kotō, 29 Shintō)

Jūyō 62

Swords 875 submissions – 149 passes (135 Kotō, 14 Shintō)

Jūyō 63

Swords 760 submissions – 140 passes (119 Kotō, 21 Shintō)

Jūyō 64

Swords 923 submissions – 135 passes (118 Kotō, 17 Shintō)

 

Tokubetsu Jūyō

TJ 15

Swords 239 submissions – 34 passes

TJ 16

Swords 260 submissions – 51 passes

TJ 17

Swords 289 submissions – 62 passes

TJ 18

Swords 328 submissions – 76 passes

TJ 19

Swords 348 submissions – 52 passes

TJ 20

Swords 268 submissions – 33 passes

TJ 21

Swords 286 submissions – 33 passes

TJ 22

Swords 205 submissions – 20 passes

TJ 23

Swords 224 submissions – 40 passes

TJ 24

Swords 330 submissions – 71 passes

TJ 25

Swords 343 submissions – 70 passes

 

I hope this might be interesting info, I haven't seen anyone listing this before. Hopefully this might spark some discussion.

[Maurice_lmb]

hello Jussi

 

here are some interesting information from Tsuruta san about TB 25. he actually sold one from this session.

 

https://www.aoijapan.com/notice-about-19128-katana-yoshioka-ichimonji/

 

Maurice 

[16k]

hello Jussi

 

here are some interesting information from Tsuruta san about TB 25. he actually sold one from this session.

 

https://www.aoijapan.com/notice-about-19128-katana-yoshioka-ichimonji/

 

Maurice

 

I don’t even want to ask how much such a gem must have cost the buyer...

[Gakusee]

That Yoshioka Ichimonji is still for sale at 19.5m

People need to make their own determination about hamon etc as the three oshigata look Very different and the photos are.... Well, photos.

[Gakusee]

That Yoshioka Ichimonji is still for sale at 19.5m

People need to make their own determination about hamon etc as the three oshigata look very different and the photos are.... Well, photos.

[16k]

Only 19.5 m? Okay let me count my copper pieces...

[Valric]

Thank you Jussi, interesting numbers. It's really too bad we don't have these going back longer in time. It's hard to make out trends glancing over at raw data but I see a strange slump in submissions between session 56 and 61. It's not a once-shot anomaly, but something which stands out as a multi-year dip and I wonder what caused it.  

 

No other trend jumps out of the picture to me. 

 

This is something which would be worth producing a proper chat for, provided the numbers all the way down to Juyo 1 are obtainable. 

[Tom Darling]

Hi Jussi,

 

Great job as always..Do you have any information as to how many mumei Koto blades juyo and Tj percentage wise, verses signed.?

 

I would believe that all shinto blades were signed. Wasn't the standard lowered for juyo rating.

 

 

Tom D.

[Ken-Hawaii]

For the TJ, Jussi, which years were those?

[Jussi Ekholm]

The Tokubetsu Jūyō shinsa is every two years and the 25th was in 2018 and 15th was in 1998.

 

Give me few years and I should be able to come up with few sweet things if things go like I've planned.

 

There is interesting stuff as Jūyō session 29 was the first one I've seen using the current format of submissions/passes. The older sessions have even more interesting layout of submissions. Unfortunately at the moment I am lacking the Tōken Bijutsu magazines pre-1979 so Jūyō 26 is the first session I have in magazines and pass rates for. The interesting thing in these old sessions is that they sort even the submissions for old swords / new swords.

 

Jūyō 26

Kotō 366 submissions – 282 passes / Shintō 211 subs – 88 passes

Jūyō 27

Kotō 491 submissions – 168 passes / Shintō 141 subs – 61 passes

Jūyō 28

Kotō 245 submissions – 122 passes / Shintō 152 subs – 53 passes

 

Unfortunately I do not have any easy way of telling the percentage on signed vs. mumei old swords that passed than counting by myself. Note that non-mumei include all forms of lacquer or gold signatures, faded signatures, etc.

 

Session 63 - 119 old swords of which 82 are mumei swords

Session 64 - 118 old swords of which 81 are mumei swords

 

You can compare to the first 5 sessions for example

 

Session 1 - 20 old swords of which 3 are mumei

Session 2 - 28 old swords of which 10 are mumei

Session 3 - 38 old swords of which 8 are mumei

Session 4 - 40 old swords of which 14 are mumei

Session 5 - 47 old swords of which 20 are mumei

[Tom Darling]

Hi Jussi,

 

Thank you very much for all the information you've been providing to our nihonto community, Most appreciated.

 

Regards,

 

Tom D.

[Jussi Ekholm]

Here are the results for koshirae & tōsōgu. At first the submissions were grouped up but from 61 onwards there seems to be specific numbers sent in. For making things easier I will just use S for submissions then after the - numbers will be passes K will be koshirae and T will be tōsōgu.

 

42. 304 S - 21 K / 24 T

43. 247 S - 23 K / 31 T

44. 218 S - 22 K / 45 T

45. 198 S - 21 K / 49 T

46. 284 S - 28 K / 66 T

47. 368 S - 31 K / 64 T

48. 383 S - 25 K / 74 T

49. 414 S - 17 K / 71 T

50. 379 S - 13 K / 60 T

51. 344 S - 16 K / 65 T

52. 361 S - 13 K / 46 T

53. 367 S - 16 K / 63 T

54. 357 S - 11 K / 36 T

55. 309 S - 12 K / 38 T

56. 318 S - 9 K / 26 T

57. 244 S - 9 K / 18 T

58. 226 S - 12 K / 31 T

59. 236 S - 6 K / 19 T

60. ? S - 12 K / 39 T

61. 49 K / 277 T - 11 K / 37 T

62. 54 K / 274 T - 9 K / 29 T

63. 35 K / 284 T - 8 K / 36 T

64. 64 K / 300 T - 8 K / 25 T

[Jussi Ekholm]

As I was answering to another topic I remembered I had made this one too, so I can maybe update session 65 stats in here

 

Swords - 1003 submissions - 101 passes (97 Kotō - 4 Shintō)

Koshirae - 45 submissions - 8 passes

Tosogu - 293 submissions - 29 passes

 

In total - 1341 submissions - 138 passes

 

As there was discussion about this being a tight session, the numbers say it so too. One of the lowest pass rates in the last 20 sessions. Of course unfortunately we dont have access to all the items sent to this shinsa but it seems to be really tough on later swords with only 4 passing...

[BIG]

Thanks Jussi, do you have the shin shinto in that data? Can you count a special smith ?

 

Best

[Ken-Hawaii]

It's like they set 10% in their brains.

[Jussi Ekholm]

Unfortunately in the results NBTHK just has two general categories so you will have to manually pick the Shinshinto from the items.

 

Session 65 only one passing was a katana by Sa Yukihide.

 

Session 64, daisho by Suishinshi Masahide, katana by Taikei Naotane, katana by Koyama Munetsugu, katana by Minamoto Masayuki (Kiyomaro) and 3x katana by Kurihara Nobuhide.

 

Session 63, katana by Ozaki Suketaka, katana and wakizashi by Taikei Naotane, katana by Hosokawa Masamori, katana by Koyama Munetsugu, katana & naginata by Kurihara Nobuhide, katana by Sa Yukihide, katana by most likely 3rd gen Satsuma Masayoshi going by date, katana by Ason Masayuki.

 

Session 62 katana by Taikei Naotane, 2x katana by Sa Yukihide

 

Session 61, wakizashi by Gassan Sadakazu (1906), katana by Suishinshi Masahide, katana by Taikei Naotane, daisho by Koyama Munetsugu, 2x katana by Sokan, katana by Unju Korekazu, katana by Kurihara Nobuhide, 2x katana by Sa Yukihide, katana by Nagasada, katana by Motohira and katana by Ason Masayuki.

 

Session 60, katana by Gassan Sadakazu (1906), 2x katana by Taikei Naotane, 2x katana by Koyama Munetsugu, katana by Sokan

 

Now that is just few latest results but those names keep popping up mostly when it comes to Shinshinto at Juyo. However I need to point out that Gassan Sadakazu seems to be upcoming, before those two I think there was only one passing in session 20. I am not too well versed in Shinshnto but it is these big names that pop up at Juyo level and maybe occasionally a sword by lesser known smith passes.

[Rivkin]

Being an ignorant man, and with reactionary attitudes largely preventing Juyo submissions, I still _guess_ the actual passing is more challenging than 10%.

Ubu, signed, Kamakura has probably 99% passing rate.

Suriage but still long, Ichimonji - 80%.

Katana Kiyomaro - 50%? 

 

So at each session after those things are auto-papered, then starts the real competition between still very good blades, but which are better in life than on paper.

Fighting for the remaining spots.

What kind of chance an absolutely stellar nidai Hizen Masahiro has?

 

Kirill R.

[Tom Darling]

It's very difficult to answer that question, unless you're related to a member of the  Juyo team. The Sa Yukihide, I  believe was a mumei blade, proves that you have to be very connected. Peace.

 

Tom D.

[BIG]

Thanks Jussi, Tom mumei shin shinto and Juyo?

 

Best

 

PS think Naotane coming up ( TJ)

[Tom Darling]

Hi Peter,

 

Yes, a mumei juyo shin shinto Sa Yukihide, REALLY!   I've never come across any shin-shinto blades that wouldn't even get green papers, let alone juyo.  I am leading with my chin on this, or am I.  

 

 

Tom D.

[Ted Tenold]

If you are referring to the Sa Yukihide passed in Session 65 that Jussi mentioned earlier, no, it was not mumei.  It was indeed signed.  

 

Unsigned Shinto and Shinshinto cannot be elevated to Juyo Token.  

[Tom Darling]

Hi Ted,  I guess my eyes, got mixed up with another mumei blade. Thanks for correcting my mistake. 

 

 

Tom D.

[spartan0690]

"The Sa Yukihide, I  believe was a mumei blade, proves that you have to be very connected. " 

Implied corruption?

If i misunderstood, apologies.

 

Granted, a mistake.

 

"I guess my eyes, got mixed up with another mumei blade"

 

 

But, when such serious allegation is made, or going to be made.

​Some responsibility should be bared, IE, Checking and double checking your information, no? 

 

John

 

My first post, if any error in posting, apologies in advance.

 

John