Hoshi

Not sure I follow the logic. Even assuming there were no red flags in the 'Tadayoshi' after visual inspection of the (bad) quality images - the fact that it was discarded into a second-tier auction house by the appraising experts should be enough to pretty much guarantee gimei. Dolphyn certainly knew, the Christie appraisers knew. Christies wouldn't turn down a 25% hammer fee on a 20K+ piece. Nor did they think the piece was convincing enough to attract the deep-pocketed gamblers. This is very similar to what I've been observing on the other action. Gambles get a premium. The 'upside argument' I don't understand. What's irrational to me is that you if you gamble ten times you're in the market for a shoshin Tadaoyshi which will hold value. And you've got far less than 10% odds for these gambles to reveal a 'gem' given that it's been scrutinized by pretty much everyone in the know so you're not going to break even. It may seem cheap put after a couple of 'cheap' purchases it's no longer cheap. Maybe I'm wrong and I'm missing something here.

Indeed Michael. Dealer prices on average swords are no-go, except for extremely rare exceptions. The market is flooded with average stuff, and the quantity of nihonto collector isn't increasing to absorb it all. It's just just supply and demand, and people should update their expectations accordingly. If you want to buy an mid-tier sword, sign up on bonham or christies - you'll pay peanuts compared to dealership as the market is losing interest and dealer still convey to us a different impression. Tosogu are in the same state, so much supply floating around with inflated estimates and people still buy. This goes back to the 'wide' vs 'tall' collections. The more 'tall' you are the lower your rent, and you may even get dividends if you're 'extremely tall'.

A couple of swords were fetched at bargain prices, all papered. I think 4 of them in total, including the gassan, norimitsu and the yamato tachi. Similar swords on mid-tier dealerships like AOI would go for 2x, easily. What struck me were all the people buying the unpapered/obvious gimei stuff at a premium. I mean, those items have been scrutinized by previous owners, their papers tossed away, and then onto the next sucker. Those things sold. Muramasa old papers? you bet, it's shoshin. It seems that the aggregate collectors are interested in paying a premium for a lotto ticket with terrible odds. There was basically one really precious sword and it didn't hit reserve. There were also some greedy sellers with high reserve. The 'Sue-Sa' school sword with 'missing' inlay (obviously gimei then removed) was perhaps the most interesting - but the reserve priced as if it was something truly special, which it wasn't. I think sellers are keenly aware of the gamble premium, and if they aren't happy with the attribution they'll toss the papers and put it on auction hoping to recoup. Market is down when it comes to the mid-range papered swords, that much is clear. Shoddy gambles still faring well. You could basically take some bungo, uda, mihara, mumei suriage shinshinto swords with paper, dress them up, toss away the attribution, and get more for them that what you paid for as the crowd is eager to roll the dice hoping for that tier 1 attribution. It's not rational and gives a nice demonstration of some behavioral economic theory. Low odds are overestimated and people are willing to pay a premium (see prospect theory). For those who took part in auctions in the past, did you notice the same thing? or was this one truly an outlier.

It's mumei status exerts a surprisingly sharp drop in value on this koto tanto compared to what I would expect on koto work. We're in the ballbark of ~5x discount. Do I just have a biased sample in mind or is it indeed unusually steeply discounted? It doesn't look exceedingly tired, either. And this dealer knows what he's doing.

Hurting financial value is the consequence but not the cause. Shape has a lot to do with aesthetic appreciation, and when shape is compromised away from the vision of the original smith, you lose some of that artistic value. Think of it as a painting that you'd crop to make it fit in a new canvas. You can lose a lot. Then there is masterfully executed Suriage, and horribly executed mutilation. In the case of the former, the artisan is mindful of the shape and skillfully executes the shortening. These are all things you need to take into account when appraising a shortened blade. Scarcity and intent are key to understand why suriage tolerance depends on the period of the sword. Ubu koto tachi are very rare due to the factors outline by others (changes in warfare, norms of carrying) which essentially leads the suriage to be performed 'honestly' - that is, within the constrains of cultural evolution. Whereas, suriage executed at later period are much more likely to reflect deceptive intent compared to legitimate requirements of the owner. This leaves the sword forever tainted.

22 is one of those bad apple sessions. Something to keep in mind. Now I know Yasutsugu has comparatively a lot of high-ranking blades and there is no doubt that some of his work, especially the utsushi are held in very high regards. I would however be careful in assuming this is '2016-juyo-worthy'. The price on the other hand says it is.

Interesting that TH has discriminatory power for Gendaito, unlike earlier work. Even in ShinShinto, great smiths get automatically TH unless something is wrong. It genuinely seems that there is within-smith variation for TH in great Gendaito smiths. It's more of a contest, a la juyo. If anything it's not very coherent.

Hi Joe, Ddn't sell. The gassan however was fetched for very cheap, 6-7K if I remember.

I'd be curious what the board thinks of the Naokatsu tanto. It's late work, one year before his death - so it's mature work from the top of his career. I find the package splendid at first sight, and I've been on the prowl for a Naotane school tanto/short sword for a long time now as one of my collection goals. I find the period koshirae beautiful, and it's exceedingly rare to find a package with a historical koshirae left intact... http://www.bonhams.com/auctions/24721/lot/423/ It's a little difficult to appraise the blade from the images, while the resolution is very high - the lighting is really no good to judge the nie or jigane. I'd love to hear opinions from the board on this item. Thanks in advance!

Some fantastic pieces in this one! Beautiful wild sea theme. http://www.bonhams.com/auctions/24152/lot/80/ One of the prettiest tanto package I've ever seen. http://www.bonhams.com/auctions/24721/lot/423/

I'd like to see the rate of conversion from Juyo to Tokuju+biju+bunka+koku of these same smiths. That would be awesome, see how the positions get shuffled.

Unless he's been hoarding extremely fine and rare yari (which he should know...) I would just go on Aoiart.net, and take the median price of say, 40 yari. I'd remove 25% from the price and multiply that by the number of pieces I own.

I didn't submit it. I don't think it will be a chance to learn anything new, as Darcy said it. The only reason would be for a potential re-sell, I suppose. But as my first love in the sword world It's not leaving my hands anytime soon Problem is that shinshinto work isn't very distinct compared to the older days. Steel production was centralized, methods of production became more homogeneous... Learning more about it would require a discussion with some foremost expert on Ishido/Naotane work. I'm sure someone like Tanobe sensei would have some interesting things to say about - but it's not the sort of sword he would agree to make a sayagaki for by my estimation. It's just too ambiguous and coated in some shady history. It would be untoward to ask.

My first Nihonto may be Unju Korekazu, or some other very good shinshinto maker. Mei has been erased at some point and a second mekugi ana has been punched to pass it off as O-suriage koto. That person also aged the nakago in some acidic solution to add to the little masquerade. http://www.militaria.co.za/nmb/topic/20477-disputed-attribution-unjuy-korekazutakei-naotane/ I love that sword despite all its trickery As you can imagine it was and is a great learning experience and this board was truly instrumental in solving the mystery. Lots of lessons learned. On a side note I'm baffled how much I learned since I first posted here, truly a wonderful community. I suppose I was fortunate in the misfortune of this sword, I would not have been able to afford such a quality blade otherwise.

I find this koshirae beautiful: https://whitelabel-2.globalauctionplatform.com/en-gb/auction-catalogues/mallams-ltd-cheltenham/catalogue-id-srmall10048/lot-433baff8-4e2e-4067-bf1b-a80900a9fbe2

That is a splendid katana kake, made for 'foreigner' tastes apparently. https://www.hermann-historica.de/de/katana_kake_japan_um_1900/l/160848?aid=157&Lstatus=0&Accid=1719&_=1507597370873&currentpos=36 Not much catching my eye on the sword side. I suppose the top pieces of these collectors get skimmed off the top - but surprisingly the European arms are still very high grade.

Thanks for keeping us appraised, Stephan

Don't touch it with a ten foot pole. Look at the sales section of the forum, that's my suggestion.

As an aside, I'm in love with the Habaki.

Thank you for providing these numbers. It strikes me that there are far less TH in proportion to Hozon swords compared to what I'd intuit reading some of the posts above. Can this be right? for every Juyo blade there are only two TH ones?

Goods posts. Some very good heuristics in there. There are cases where it's plain not worth it to re-submit. Say the sword is a mumei chu-saku shinto wak - you've got no chance of moving beyond hozon. Kryptonite swords are more or less resistant to this issue just like low-grade tosogu. On top of it, nobody can have a 'confident' judgement on bottom of the pond mumei shinto wak. If the work is too low to be recognizable beyond tentative broad strokes and the polish makes for 90% of the value of the blade - getting new papers is probably not worth the hassle and the costs involved. I have a mumei sword with shitty old green papers and honami papers both throwing a wild guess to good smiths as a way to say "it's good". It's shinshinto, signature erased, nakago aged, and fake second mekugi-ana to make it look koto suriage. It will never get past hozon, and whatever the name that ends up on the paper isn't going to increase it's value. It's nice work, but from a value point of view it's tainted.

Very interesting design, thank you for sharing. Makes a lot of a sense as a side-arm to use a triangular cross-sections dirk. Is it repurposed from another weapon (yari) or is it originally designed as a tanto? Looks like the latter to me but I really wouldn't know.

Indeed Denis. I think in fact someone cleaned that very sayagaki recently. The sword has a few uchiko gung-ball scratches, so there you have it. Grey, that's a very good tip. I'll do exactly that.

Thank you. Rice glue is surprisingly easy to make from what I've gathered and it's probably the safest (wood glue would surely hold up better). I'll make a batch and apply it to the split area. With the moisture it should as well reactivate the existing glue. I don't have a regular saya for the blade so I'll just keep it well oiled in a dry place as it will take time to dry.

Hi, I have a shirasaya with a subtle sideway split along the glue line. It came as is, and I presume it was cleaned up by splitting it then re-glued poorly. The horn pieces keep it in one piece but you can still see feint openings. My question is - how bad is it? Presently I've tightened it with leather straps to keep it sealed, but you can't make a perfect seal this way - should I seek repair? If it's not too involved, could I do it myself (rice glue?). I wouldn't want moisture to get down in there and make a mess. Thank for the advice, Chris