Hoshi

Agreed Jussi, lot 24 and that's it...

I wouldn't be surprised if this intentionally part of a selling strategy. Christie has a lot of experience selling art where authenticity may be unclear...

Here it is Christies doesn't mention if papers accompany the blades. I would surmise that most aren't papered. I have to say I'm somewhat disappointed, but then I just had a quick glance and further study is needed to see if there are any hidden gems in the pond, which I doubt. Some easily recognizable gimei...

On top of the factor's mentioned above: Seller expectations adjust slowly. Nihonto Antiques is not a high throughput market - that means the process of price discovery and hence expectation adjustments takes longer. Low to mid-tier waks are on a downward trend due to increasing supply from Japan being dumped on the western market + post WW2 old collectors passing away with shinto wak troves seeking new acquirers. It's all supply and demand at the end of the day. A more general point: People don't go into collection nihonto 'at random' historically. There are periods of booms in demand and interest - such as the post WW2 treasure hunting era where baby boomers (and the previous WW2 vet generation) began to produce demand. That baby boomer period is coming to to an end and big collections are going to be increasingly dumped on the market. The real supply of some items being hoarded will be discovered by the market and prices will drop. New, young western collector are scarce and won't be able to produce as much demand as the previous generation. It's a gradual process...

https://www.aoijapan.com/katana-ishidosekido-korekazu-seitan-saku-kore Pleasing blade. Notice how the edge is itame, and the body is mokume.

nice find

Hi Curran, Could you show me an example of something you think is better? (not wabi-sabi, I don't understand these very well on an emotional-aesthetic level. Grey's Higo Tsuba is beyond me.) Cheers Chris

Fantastic, thank you! Astonishing work... Is there any kinko artist who even comes close to him?! this is leaps and bound above to what I've come to expect from tosogu...

Indeed, I'd love hear it. I am guessing you refer to the knot about the menuki, and the spacing between the final knot tied to the kashira. I think we could all benefit from expanding our appreciation of what constitutes a fine tsukamaki

Hi all, I was recently blown away while researching tosogu by the work of this artist. Natsuo used to be my favourite tosogu artist, but now I'm veering towards Masayoshi. I was wondering if any of you had any pictures of his work you could share. I've exhausted google images, and I could only find a couple (including the most beautiful Tsuba I've ever seen, sold at Christies in 2005, in fact if anyone has a high resolution image of this one, please share). The finesse and crispness of the brushwork, details, shape and composition is just otherworldly. I haven't seen anyone come near in terms of birds or plants.

You need to be very careful with collecting Wakizashi. There are those worth collecting and those that aren't, and most fall into the second category - Darcy has a great post on it. These points aren't necessarily obvious so it's worth a read. Generally speaking, I think that waks in the lower price range (1.5-4k) are overvalued given that they are extremely numerous, especially shinto-era ones. The price on these things are dropping lately when you look at auction results. The market is adjusting to the supply. It's the same with iron tsuba in the lower price range but that's a different topic. In both cases I would be extremely careful about such purchases.

I wonder to which degree ascribing these extremely high coin value to swords was an indirect way of 'printing money' for the Tokugawa. It's not clear at all to me that these honami estimates would reflect the real selling prices at the time. These 'monetized' swords could be used as an effective way to reward a vassal without spending valuable currency. Some sort of 'sword bubble' purposefully done in order to spare treasury and land, similar to the way fiat currency has been issued by central banks. This is further corroborated by the inflation in sword value we observe over the years from the Honami appraisal. We have no market data from the commerce of old swords during the Edo period as far as I know. Only gift exchange lists. This means we should take these multi-million estimates with a grain of salt.

Very nice advice, John. Again a testament to the helpfulness of this board.

Given that the seller is knowledgeable about nihonto, it would be papered if it wasn't gimei. We don't need detailed mei analysis and workmanship style examination in such cases. p(shoshin|seller knows about nihonto + has no paper) =~ 0. Whoever this Eric is - and irrespective of his reputation - it's dishonest to make it appear as if it was genuine. I've no doubt it will sell, as people just love paying a premium for a lottery ticket. The fact that its obscure certificate is advertised is just an old trick to elicit hope and bait in potential buyers. He knows it's gimei. In fact the more I get into this hobby the more 1. I find these commercial practices extremely disheartening and 2. I'm baffled why there isn't a collective effort to name and shame such practices in order to create a commercial incentive for dealers to behave in accordance with the truth.

Great article. The wikipedia entry of the dutch sailor who earned the shogun's trust is also worth a read.

Furthermore, you made a point about the sword holding value. As a good heuristic, the higher you go (provided you maximize quality and scarcity for a given budget which is the essence of collectability) - the more the likely it is that the piece will hold value over time. With a 25k budget, you could go for a tier-2 koto maker. For instance, a student under one of the masamune Juttetsu. In other words, in terms of value preservation, it's better to have one 25k swords than two 12.5k swords (all else being equal). The distribution of sword rarity/quality follows an exponential distribution while the prices correlate but not nearly with the same exponent.

I can't recommend Darcy at nihonto.ca enough, he's a great guy and will advise you wisely. Even if he hasn't a sword for you on his website he can find one. He will do a lot to help new collectors avoid mistakes. It's a landmine hobby for newcomers.

The pictures of these lots are really dismal. I hope they will upload the actual images of the blades, and not simply the koshirae.

Sometimes the starting auction prices are very attractive. This is one. Once and a while if your auctions aren't getting enough attention, you can gather the crowd by putting up a few with a low starting bid. You may not win money on it, but chances are - a purchase will be followed by another.

You'd need more examples to compare with, it's important to know what's 'normal' variation in mei from what isn't. Third and fouth character look off to me, but it could be part of the smith's natural variation... Something I've been thinking about lately is the source of the lottery ticket. You can't just compare the work from the picture, you need to account for the context in which it was sold. Say you have four different contexts. You judge (based on your expertise of Hizen blades, gold inscription, and so forth) that's it's 2/3 chance of being shoshin all else being equal. The images are of insufficient quality to fully judge the workmanship but that's all you have. The blade has no papers. Prices are the same across context. First blade is from 'REALjapanArt' seller on Ebay Second blade is on Christie from a big western collector's estate Third blade is garage sale in western oregon from a widow's estate Fourth blade you glimpse at in a private Japanese dealer circle to be auctioned off. Knowing the context of the sale, which one would you pull the trigger on, and why? Probably I'm drifting off topic and this would merit a post of its own...

This is art. I think it's like those movies that are so bad they're good again. This paragraph has crossed the line of mere cobbled-up bullshit into something truly special. It has it all. The lies, the impossibly shitty attempt at creating hope to prospective buyers, the blade-maiming amateur polish, the 'I need money fast' nigerian scam vibe, the lack of basic grammar and punctuation... It's meme worthy. It's special.

From a historical perspective I'm afraid I don't know anything. However, It's odd from a purely structural and balancing point of view. Bo-hi are there to reduce weight and hence improve the blade's agility without overly compromising structural integrity. If you cut the bohi at the base, you're further putting the weight of the blade down the tip, which is unwieldy. Logically, a partial bo-hi should be cut at the tip or not at all. Could be that specific schools of fencing emphasis forward weight in the blade, which I can't exclude. This leads me to speculate that the bohi on the second blade was done to remove a flaw or a disgraceful horimono.

Hahahaha this is excellent. Look at his other listing: https://www.ebay.com/itm/WWII-restored-Kanetsugu-17th-century-tsuba-in-full-polish-amazing-Hamon-Hada/292316612049?hash=item440f6d85d1:g:35YAAOSwZVZZyt09

Not sure I follow the logic. Even assuming there were no red flags in the 'Tadayoshi' after visual inspection of the (bad) quality images - the fact that it was discarded into a second-tier auction house by the appraising experts should be enough to pretty much guarantee gimei. Dolphyn certainly knew, the Christie appraisers knew. Christies wouldn't turn down a 25% hammer fee on a 20K+ piece. Nor did they think the piece was convincing enough to attract the deep-pocketed gamblers. This is very similar to what I've been observing on the other action. Gambles get a premium. The 'upside argument' I don't understand. What's irrational to me is that you if you gamble ten times you're in the market for a shoshin Tadaoyshi which will hold value. And you've got far less than 10% odds for these gambles to reveal a 'gem' given that it's been scrutinized by pretty much everyone in the know so you're not going to break even. It may seem cheap put after a couple of 'cheap' purchases it's no longer cheap. Maybe I'm wrong and I'm missing something here.

Indeed Michael. Dealer prices on average swords are no-go, except for extremely rare exceptions. The market is flooded with average stuff, and the quantity of nihonto collector isn't increasing to absorb it all. It's just just supply and demand, and people should update their expectations accordingly. If you want to buy an mid-tier sword, sign up on bonham or christies - you'll pay peanuts compared to dealership as the market is losing interest and dealer still convey to us a different impression. Tosogu are in the same state, so much supply floating around with inflated estimates and people still buy. This goes back to the 'wide' vs 'tall' collections. The more 'tall' you are the lower your rent, and you may even get dividends if you're 'extremely tall'.