The state of the Nihonto Market at the end 2025

[Matsunoki]

It would be usual for the descriptions to be within a printed catalogue and in the online sale catalogue. Auctioneers rarely do description cards to display with the Lots.

Did you see the catalogue?

[lonely panet]

10 hours ago, MassiveMoonHeh said:

 

Whilst I hear stories of private sales being the way things work with Nihonto blades and it may be, I know for damn sure that an open market pushes prices a lot higher than closed private sales. I agree with Christine's sentiment here 100%... this market needs more transparency. It is the only way we see prices appreciate and start to see these incredibly historic and culturally important pieces start to get the respect they deserve.

 

I want to see the highest prices not be rumoured guesstimates that some Museum in Japan has paid but I want to see a healthy market where private collectors across the world push to have their favourite blade knowing that there is someone else that wants that blade as badly or even more. Until this happens we are stuck in a negative feedback loop that just perpetuates sideways/ downward action.

 

As a community we should demand openness and transparency at every level. From NBTHK and their database of swords through to shops and auction houses. Transparency benefits everyone. We will see this space grow, NBTHK will make more money, collectors will see some returns on their favourite pieces and Nihonto will finally join the realm of valuable art comparable in price to art works from China, Europe and the Americas.

 

Transparency is key.

 demand transparency and openness!!!

 

what position do you hold to force this apon a private buisness in other countries?? 

 clearly not that switched on,  to understand how Japanese society works or evan just normal art transactions arcoss the world works.

 

Edited Monday at 11:35 PM by lonely panet

[MassiveMoonHeh]

1 hour ago, lonely panet said:

 demand transparency and openness!!!

 

what position do you hold to force this apon a private buisness in other countries?? 

 clearly not that switched on,  to understand how Japanese society works or evan just normal art transactions arcoss the work works.

 

I do not hold any position and perhaps I am not switched on, so please explain it to me not like I am a salaryman from Tokyo but like I am a child who loves swords and one day when I grow up wants to be a Samurai.

[MassiveMoonHeh]

5 hours ago, Jussi Ekholm said:

I consider myself as a sword researcher with 0 financial interest.

 

Now will you still believe that line if I will tell that I have 575 pages of sword prices, and have tracked down interesting swords for over 10 years...  Here is a link to an old version that I shared to NMB I think almost 7 years ago: 

After posting that I had some interesting discussions with few people, back then I didn't understand the bigger picture too well but I try to think I have learned something in 7 years. I had some good ones with Darcy and while we sometimes butted heads a bit as we had maybe a bit different view of the some things, now with more experience under my belt I've come to realize that the actual historical prices are pretty unrelevant. As I go through all of my regular sites every week, I just type down the price down as a habit as I had done it for so many years. Main point for myself is just tracking down the items themselves for my database. Jūyō items are actually quite easy to track down when they pop up as I have the basic data.

 

One thing is that different dealers will sell the same item for different prices and it is just normal in life. Some can squeeze in larger profit (and will have to do it for business) while some are satisfied with smaller profit. I was just commenting last month to a smaller Japanese dealer that they have excellent prices, their answer was of course logical that they are online only, so they don't have any additional costs. Compare that to some of the top dealers, showroom in Ginza with staff etc.

 

I feel that the only relevant thing is the current price of the item and how comfortable you are with it. Items are one of a kind items and if you are happy with the price I think that is the only thing that matters. Of course every week as I browse through all of the interesting new items that dealers and sites in my list have put out, I do keep immidiately thinking how something feels overpriced or something is actually feeling like a very good deal.

 

I am actually super happy that Tōken World at Nagoya won the Mikazuki Kanemitsu, now I can see it some year when I visit Nagoya. For me that is the most important thing that people can actually see the items in museums. Had some top tier private collector won the item, most people would never had the chance to see the sword. I won't say anything about the big auction houses, just that I am extremely against them. I will much rather support Japanese and International dealers and would even pay premium for them for the same item rather than deal with extremely greedy auction houses. Sword dealers have a passion for this which auction houses lack.

Jussi, first a massive thank you for everything you do, share and contribute to this community. It is a real privilege to be able to learn and grow from all the information you put out. So thank you.

 

I did have a chuckle that a person with 575 pages or price data is not interested in price. But I also get it, data is important and without we cannot identify, learn or grow. 

 

I agree with you 100% that prices are variable based on location, type of operation, number of employees etc. A private seller with no overhead is able to make a sharper deal than a person with 10 staff and a shop in one of the more exclusive neighbourhoods to attract a certain clientele. I also agree that price is a matter of what you are comfortable with. For a more experienced hand who has 575 pages of price data that they privately collected this is an easier task. For a newb who has just joined the space and wants to buy their first sword this is less so. Dropping a few thousand dollars of your hard earnt money on something from a few hundred years ago can be an extremely daunting task. The sweaty palms and lump in your throat perhaps gives away that whilst you are massively excited you are also spending more money on something than you ever spent and you just hope you are doing the right thing.

 

Without some guide or price transparency this task becomes a massive uphill battle that means you can only enter this space if you do years of research... for many people they just don't have the time or the inclination and that can result in poor decisions or worse they become overwhelmed by the task of getting into Nihonto and so after a couple of weeks of playing with this new hobby - they walk away. 

 

Do I want to see more museums buy Nihonto? Yes absolutely. Do I want to see more museums outside of Japan buy more Nihonto - 100%. I have no issue with this but what I do wish we had more of was price transparency to allow this market to develop properly and grow. Whilst price is not the most important thing what it does do is create a natural curiosity. Most people don't understand crypto, equities or art. But most know that Bitcoin is a thing, AI is gonna change the world and Monet and Da Vinci are two of the greatest artists in the world. Money or new highs attract the attention of the masses. And yes it can get messy but it also creates a new community base of die hards and wannabe die hards and everything else in between. It creates an interest, a mystique, an aura that creates a market and puts these things in the collective conscious of the people. 

 

Nihonto are culturally super important to Japan but even in Japan the younger generation is abandoning the traditional... they see old things as being super uncool. It is the great contradiction that the names of some of their favourite manga characters are based off the names of famous Nihonto blades - but not many know this and certainly most have never been to their local museum to see any of these blades... why because they are just not interested. 

 

Price is a double edged sword. It can price out the true fans but it also brings attention to a whole new audience. Nihonto to me should not be guarded jealously for a select few that spend 10 years to study the subject (and by the way I love that there are people who dedicate their lives to this artform - the collectors, polishers, sword smiths, shop owners, appraisers, professors, museum curators, etc. - without them doing the hard graft this space dies.)  Nihonto however are a beautiful and incredibly intricate form of art that needs to be shared with the whole world. And to do that the old equation for any asset class must come into play:

 

Price + People = Global Recognition 

 

Change one and the other two are affected.

 

If we could keep price down forever but gain more supporters, collectors, hobbiest, fanatics and the like - great. But that is generally not how the world works. 

 

It does not mean we all have to like it - I am simply suggesting that for this space to grow we need to consider how we help it grow. And one of the important parts of this equation in a Capitalist world is price.

 

And by the way - I agree with you, I prefer a knowledgable shop owner any day to a cold corporate auction house. I am not the one batting for the auction houses here - I just see them as a necessary evil that can and do help with global recognition.

[MassiveMoonHeh]

5 hours ago, Lexvdjagt said:

A very interesting thread, 

 

This discussion is wonderful and insightful. Having said that, there are some points I disagree on.

 

I personally will not take auction results from auctioneers like Christie’s, Sothebys (or other high end auction houses), as a market parameter. These auctions are in many cases outliers, and one auction or auction house is to me not a proper market indicator.

 

Having been active as a dealer in the antique market when I started at 14 has taught me A lot about market decline and rise. I have sold ancient Roman and Greek coinage ever since I was 14. The coin market is very transparent, you’ll always be able to check the market price for a particular coin. I have a very wide range of databases that I use to figure out the price increase or decline of certain coins (which overall has seen an uphill increase). But from the perspective of a coin dealer this transparency is also a curse, my profits are low (because anyone can find out where they can get it from my source), and I focus on selling in quantity to make a living.
 

 

This cannot be said about Nihonto. When I started buying Nihonto, I desperately wanted to gain intimate knowledge of the market and trends within the market. I have never been rich so I’ve always focused on the Hozon-Tokubetsu Hozon range. The market is completely dependant on location and clients, it’s a whole different game. There is no standard metric to compare your swords to. The Japanese market is very different depending on who you know or where you can get into (for example dealer auctions).

 

Dealers can really truly ask whatever they want, if they have a client willing to pay. 
 

There is of course some basic understanding of price, but it can wildly differ. 
 

Overall in Japan when I talk to dealers, some can be quite optimistic. Looking to branch out more and reach more clients, and working to get young people interested in Nihonto.

 

I don’t worry as much, at least not at my collecting price point.

 

Greetings,

Lex

Agree 100% on auction houses being outliers. But even though they are they represent transparent price action that is sorely lacking in this space. They are also an indication of the strength of the current market that the international community does watch. And yes, at the moment Nihonto is not even on anyone's radar due to the auction houses being a outlier in the Nihonto market. Case in point... the 54% clearance rate after the sale of the Mikazuki Kanemitsu in the same auction. This tells you everything you need to know about how the global community currently sees the Nihonto market - it is not something anyone is touching.

 

That is a valid point and really great insight regarding the example you use of selling rare coins. Whilst you have great price data you also have smaller margins but the price trend is up. With Nihonto there is no price data, the market is fragmented and difficult to understand. And yes dealers do differ massively in the price they charge which makes it even harder for a buyer to understand. I suspect however like your coins shop that for the majority of Nihonto sellers they are also making a very small margin on their sales because their market is so small and there is very little demand meaning the price trend is not up.

 

You can tell exactly how well a dealer is doing by how quickly their swords sell (or how long they stay on their website) and for the younger dealers who started their YouTube channels during covid how many are still producing content. Most are not doing as well as their optimistic view suggests. 

 

I would love to see this change and for these sellers who are the bread and butter of Nihonto transactions to be rewarded for their hard work and effort they put into this space. They truly are the link between the old community and the new enthusiast and if they do well the community does well.

 

Thank you for your insights - it is really appreciated.

[Sebuh]

3 hours ago, Matsunoki said:

It would be usual for the descriptions to be within a printed catalogue and in the online sale catalogue. Auctioneers rarely do description cards to display with the Lots.

Did you see the catalogue?

 

Yes I did, the catalogs were there and in some corner within the display room. Sothebys and Christies go out of their way to label all other forms of art, they did it with every other item displayed, just didn't bother with Nihonto as much. A few weeks back I was at Christies for their 21st evening sale, and they had no problem displaying little bits of paper with estimates ranging from 40,000,000 USD - 60,000,000 for a Monet. Of course paintings and swords are one and the other. Just left a bad taste in my mouth when everything else setup at Sothebys at that time had far more attention tended too it than the swords being tucked away in some corner unceremoniously, but what can we do.

[Gakusee]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blind_men_and_an_elephant
 

It is naive to assume that Sotheby’s or Chrtistie’s are the places where great Nihonto masterpieces change hands. Occasionally that happens but it is rare. 

[Winchester]

Hi OP and fellow enthusiast,

 

Hope you are well. There are a couple things to point out in reference to your main thesis or major premise:

 

-The examples are larger sums for a specific class (Juyo) and therefore cannot be used in a ‘most’ argument to provide overall direction of a market.
 

Separately, how many people can spend $5K or $10K on art let alone six figures for one example?

 

-As Hoshi (I believe mentioned) about knowledge…Brother, people are not going to give up their competitive advantage (knowledge) that cost them time and money so ‘we’ can quickly Google search or AI gobbles it up.

 

This is one of the reasons why it is such a service to our shared hobby when someone is kind enough to write articles, et cetera or even provide books for sale. 
 

 

……Let us borrow a thought experiment from Charlie Munger and inverse:

 

+How would we NOT be a successful dealer? No established clientele, nearing six-figure pieces, limited opportunity to sell via auction house.

 

+How could we BE successful as a dealer? Tsuba under $2,500.00 USD, nihonto under $25,000.00 with most in the $5K -$15K range. Fittings at $2,000.00 or below. 

 

Edited Tuesday at 01:37 PM by Winchester
Clarity

[Jussi Ekholm]

I fully understand Brett and I think it is very important to be supportive of new enthusiasts to the hobby. As someone with quite modest means for collecting I know very well that spending multiple thousands into a purchase is something many people will need to seriously consider and weigh the different options. That is why I initially started looking at the prices and trying to figure out things in order to make most of my potential future purchase. It can be extremely difficult to understand why for example one mumei Ōmiya attributed sword is 600,000 yen, another is 1,100,000 yen and third one 2,800,000 and to be totally transparent I sometimes still struggle to understand the pricing for some items. Originally years I was thinking that there could be a major difference on a 700,000 yen sword and 600,000 yen sword. And many cases there can be major differences just not ones that might affect the price too much.

 

For me personally when an item is jumping through dealers or sold multiple times, it just makes me think there must be something on that item as people don't want to keep it even though the item would be really nice. Here is an example of a Ko-Bizen tachi that was listed at 3 different high quality vendors lately.

https://web.archive.org/web/20221203191527/https://wakeidou.com/pages/522/

https://web.archive.org/web/20230603022557/https://eirakudo.shop/token/tachikatana/detail/425951

https://web.archive.org/web/20240424230207/https://www.samurai-nippon.net/SHOP/V-2051.html

 

Each of them had it priced slightly differently but they were of course around the same ballpark. The Japanese dealers of course know their pricing very well.

 

I think the Paul Davidson collection had awesome items but a low level collector like me isn't the target audience. I just felt many of the estimates were beyond what I would have been looking at. Well of course I couldn't afford a single item from there. The most interesting item for me was the Kozori Sadamitsu wakizashi and I think that could have been a good deal: https://www.sothebys.com/en/buy/auction/2025/important-Japanese-swords-and-armour-from-the-paul-l-davidson-collection/a-ko-wakizashi-signed-bishu-osafune-sadamitsu However the smith is completely irrelevant as long as high end collecting goes so I would guess the Tomomitsu and Morimitsu got a lot more eyes on them, well the Morimitsu seems wonderful item. Of course I understand that my personal view is skewed towards overvaluing some items and not realizing the real potential for most of the items.

[Matsunoki]

8 hours ago, Sebuh said:

everything else setup at Sothebys at that time had far more attention tended too it than the swords being tucked away in some corner unceremoniously, but what can we do.

Sadly there is nothing we can do. All the major auction houses have “bean counters”  deciding what to put effort into and what not to. Once upon a time it was different when specialist departments employed genuinely knowledgeable people  who were allowed to do the job vaguely properly. Not so now. Minor departments (eg a Japanese Art) are either closed, moved geographically or tacked on to a wider Dept eg “Asian Art”.

The potential comparatively low £return from such niche markets is an irritant to be tolerated rather than developed…..and I guess from a financial perspective (the only one that matters to them) - that’s fair enough.

 

I don’t think anyone on here is naive enough to think that major auction houses are a complete guide to the market but then neither are top end dealers selling top end swords to rich people who don’t care what the price is and don’t know what they are actually buying. Both can cause definite distortions but both are reality……that is what is actually happening.

 

You could argue that auction results are a better reflection of the “everyday” marketplace ie what people are prepared to actually pay for something in open competition with others.
 

 

[Hoshi]

Hello, 

 

I realize that my previous post may have been too theoretically-slanted.

 

For the benefit of the broader readership, it's worth clearing things up.

 

Claim: Prices are down on the items I found online. 

 

Your sample is not representative. On a representative industry price survey, DTI24 -> DTI25, top TJ prices are up ~+25%+, Juyo+ were mostly absent (TJ coming up 2026), Juyo- items are stable.   

 

Claim: Auction house all time high has not been exceeded since the Compton sales

 

Auction house ATH has been broken (see Mikazuki Kanemitsu) 418'000$ -> 1'300'000$ (although, I caution that this is a perfectly meaningless measure)

 

Claim: 50% of items went unsold, therefore the market is down because seller's reserve on a per-item basis has not been met

 

What matters for the seller and auction house are the total sale proceeds, not the item clearance rate. Total sales proceed is driven by crown-jewel items (power-law distribution) and it has been a resounding success from this perspective. 

 

And finally, are you sure you want more transparency, liquidity, and participants? It would be relatively simple to "pump prices" in this field, as such a market is extremely sensitive to new whales joining. Do we want more speculation-minded deep pockets with no education? At your risk and perils. The center cannot hold. 

 

Be careful what you wish for. 

 

Hoshi 

 

Edited Tuesday at 09:06 AM by Hoshi

[Lukrez]

 

Many thanks  for the previous contributions. The question of pricing, development, and returns in connection with Nihontō is fascinating. I can well understand why many consider this aspect central, expecting clear guidance from it, only to be disappointed.

 

My preliminary conclusion, however, is that there are at least two main approaches: the quick, seemingly clear answers that promise guidance but are usually misleading, corrupting the true joy of Nihontō by entangling us in political and economic argumentation - the moment one adopts a political approach and starts to calculate, the magic vanishes. And the more complex considerations, which offer no simple solutions but lead us deeper into the intricate reality of human experience.

 

First, my own experiences with dealers and auction houses have been always very unpleasant. Perhaps personal factors played a role, but the situation is simply too steeped in tricks, lies, and deceit. And apparently, I am not alone in thinking this: Darcy, for instance, criticizes in his articles how dealers dismantle Nihontō for the sake of pure profit, selling pieces individually without regard for cultural or historical context. Likewise, the history of certain smiths or works is often exploited through exaggerated storytelling, solely to inflate market value. In Japan, there seems to have been an early aversion to profiting from beauty, which is why dealers in the Edo period held the lowest social status (a position I still hold to this day, though, of course, there were other political reasons).

For many, Nihontō are sacred relics; they are bound up with love—and yet, as we know, politics and love rarely mix well. That is fundamental.

 

All of this nearly spoiled my initial interest in Nihontō.

 

Personally, I would be immensely grateful never to have to deal with dealers and auctioneers again, preferring instead, as it was settled in the past, to resolve everything with friends by handshake. At the same time, there is supposedly an informal market that grants access to the finest pieces only to a select few insiders.

 

These developments trouble me from a scholarly-philosophical perspective, as they prevent us from realizing the potential of these art. Additionally, I share Hoshi`s  concern, as he writes that new crypto millionaires and their ilk may be infiltrating the market, generating illusions and artificially inflating prices. I had actually assumed this was already happening, but apparently, it does not yet seem to be the case.

 

That said, I still appreciate museum exhibitions, but a blade truly reveals its almost 'totemic' power only when held in one’s hands. What I think would be really nice would be a kind of prayer room in the museum, similar to the ones you find at airports, where you could take a Nihontō and spend a few hours meditating with it. That’s my vision for the Nihontō museum of the future ;).

 

(A brief personal digression): I am familiar with the saying, “Bad swords spoil the eye,” which makes it all the more embarrassing to admit. Yet, perhaps others feel the same: the Nihontō that shape us are, in most cases, called "bad" Nihontō, because most of us never have, and likely never will have, access to the truly exceptional pieces. These "good bad Nihontō," as I like to call them, offer a richness that one loses once a more refined taste or collecting ambition takes hold. When one becomes acquainted with high art, the terrain that was once wild and wondrous begins to narrow—a system with its own pitfalls (ultimately giving rise to sometimes strange, oddly intellectualized judgments of taste).

The original joy is partially lost—it is lost with taste. The central question, then, becomes whether—and how—one can recover it.

 

As I’ve mentioned, all of this is intellectually fascinating to me. However, what occupies my thoughts most is the question of why the market remains informal and opaque to this day—a point that has been repeatedly raised in previous forum posts. Nihontō continue to be a niche market, and as such, their pricing potential can hardly be fully realized. The fact that purchases are often conducted in secrecy and that knowledge is guarded with caution, suspicion, or even jealousy is particularly intriguing.

 

Of course, knowledge is hard work, requires a lot of effort, and one must dedicateto it seriously and with humility. Literature is the main path. But fundamentally, it seems to me that this community thrives on the generosity of a few individuals, like Darcy, Hoshi, and some others (I hope there will be more in the future).

 

It’s always a few who carry the pull of one generation to the next, expose the vanity of other secret keepers, and thus push the species forward in certain areas. But secrets are simultaneously the origin and driving force, as they have a long tradition. The dynamic is truly complex and fascinating.

 

I believe one can approach this topic on multiple levels of abstraction. Here is a small selection of reflections I have made:

 

At a higher level of abstraction, the Japanese "culture of secrecy" exists within a historically developed cultural context that can only be understood from within that context. Reading, for example, Jun’ichirō Tanizaki’s nostalgic longing for the beauties of old Japan, one encounters an aesthetics of darkness and shadow. While in the West we aim to illuminate every secret with the light of science—a pursuit with its own beauty—the Japanese cultivated an aesthetics of shadows, of veil, of the unspoken.

 

It is at the core concerned with the question of how to preserve the secret, how to protect what can only be sensed.

 

There is a special appeal in this as well: allowing agreements or relationships to arise somewhat in the half-light—a subtle, peculiar pleasure.

 

From another perspective, Japanese cultural history can also be read as a succession of treacherous attacks. The persistent insistence on loyalty among the Samurai and in military contexts sheds a clear light on the frequenct occurrents of plots, lies, and breaches of trust. From this arose a deep cultural inclination toward secrecy.

 

Another interesting aspect is that, although Japan traditionally maintained a naturalistic outlook, its world remained suffused with legend. Their world is full of ghosts. They invented gods and created myths and legends to somehow interact with that which could not be grasped by symbols alone. Observation and myth were not strictly separate, flowing together.

Swordsmanship was revered as a sacred craft, and the formulas for making Nihontō were treated like magical spells. Many smiths even withheld knowledge from their own students.

 

This attitude continues into the modern era. Togishi Hayashi captures it beautifully through the words of Satō-Sensei: "During an apprenticeship, you are not taught anything. Your sensei is not obligated to teach you. In a way, you are to ‘steal’ your sensei’s skill and make it your own. It is up to you to observe what he does and emulate him."

 

Of course, there are also Western figures, like Dostoevsky, Zweig or Calasso, who have approached the dark heart of things. Yet the Japanese perspective undoubtedly belongs among the human endeavors that peer most deeply. It is difficult to fully comprehend. Precisely because it remains a mystery, it gives us so much.

 

How can anyone still attempt to express it seriously in numbers?

 

[Matsunoki]

7 hours ago, Hoshi said:

What matters for the seller and auction house are the total sale proceeds, not the item clearance rate. Total sales proceed is driven by crown-jewel items (power-law distribution) and it has been a resounding success from this perspective. 

Whilst that may be financially true (to an extent) for the auction house it does their image/reputation no good at all to have high unsold rates and they are very conscious of that. That is why they try to depress estimates and reserves at every opportunity. High “unsolds” makes for very nervous department employees. Low estimates and reserves makes for very nervous vendors……selling one or two high profile Lots for serious money can catch the eye and make the headlines but the undercurrent can be a totally different story for both parties. 

From the vendors point of view it isn’t exactly wonderful either because he is left with a “significant” number of swords that have failed on the open market and although the star items have sold, his unsold items now have the unwanted provenance of having been rejected by the open market in a very high profile way.  In such a small niche market that will have been noted by all interested parties ……..and then what?

[Gakusee]

2 hours ago, Matsunoki said:

Whilst that may be financially true (to an extent) for the auction house it does their image/reputation no good at all to have high unsold rates and they are very conscious of that. That is why they try to depress estimates and reserves at every opportunity. High “unsolds” makes for very nervous department employees. Low estimates and reserves makes for very nervous vendors……selling one or two high profile Lots for serious money can catch the eye and make the headlines but the undercurrent can be a totally different story for both parties. 

From the vendors point of view it isn’t exactly wonderful either because he is left with a “significant” number of swords that have failed on the open market and although the star items have sold, his unsold items now have the unwanted provenance of having been rejected by the open market in a very high profile way.  In such a small niche market that will have been noted by all interested parties ……..and then what?

Colin, 

You overlook several pertinent facts:

-  The business has moved on tremendously in the last 20 years. Previously, auction houses were the only way to access top blades etc, while now they are not. Also, their presentation of auction items, in-house knowledge and overall expertise are woefully behind the standard benchmark (of even the modest dealers working and presenting on this forum) let alone the topmost leaders in the space internationally (no slight intended to our members here, just reality);

- So, since the auction houses lag so pitiably behind, they can no longer be representative of “the market”. The market is where most action happens and that is in Japan. That is not accessible to the vast majority of NMB members and that is privileged info. Of course you could endeavour to parse the “market” into segments such as the US market, the U.K. market etc but again that is a false methodology as all of these jurisdictions now primarily source from Japan nowadays (with the ever diminishing trickle of discoveries in the US); 

- The “unsold” auction houses proportions cited above are misleading. There are post-auction private sales which still realise prices and margins on the auction remnants for the auction houses. In fact, the Davidson collection left-over items were placed that way and so were other “unsold” items in other auctions. The auction house fulfilled its purpose to indicate roughly where the seller’s mind was (taking into account reserve pricing axioms). 
- While Hoshi and others do discuss top items, please do not get distracted by that. The facts above in relation to auction houses are relevant to all levels of items. 
 

On the perennial point of secrecy: 

- It is embedded in the Japanese national psyche. Ever since Nobunaga and Toyotomi confiscated swords nationwide and demanded their vassals present them with “worthy” blades (ie the best blades in the daimyo’s ownership). Therefore families hid, defaced, concealed their swords

- Furthermore, there was ignominious embarrassment associated with the impoverishment of daimyo families in Meiji/Taisho and the concomitant dispersal of family heirlooms. Therefore, family histories were deliberately obfuscated, eradicated or concealed. 
- Next, there is always fierce competition for great blades. That is necessitated by the limited number of such in existence at every level (Hozon- Kokuho). Therefore, as we now all know more, have access to more info and all hope for better items in our collections, guess what - we are all competing with each other for the very few items which still circulate around and have not been acquired by Brastsheave, Nagoya Token World, Mori foundation, the collectors first / foremost in Japan or the few top Japanese dealer-collectors (who own outstanding items). It is always easier for the Japanese dealers to sell in Japan even though sometimes the higher Western market friction is justified by the higher prices which could be realised in the West due to the lower variety and choice. 

 

The idealistic approach of some of our younger and newer NMB members, perhaps inspired by their other respective fields of study of collecting outside of Nihonto or even the utopian (ubiquitous, indelible and immutable information availability) promise of blockchain technology, is unfortunately not commutable to nihonto esoterica.
One needs to be realistic about the cultural, historic, psychological (self-interest etc) aspects of this hobby. 

[Matsunoki]

21 minutes ago, Gakusee said:

So, since the auction houses lag so pitiably behind, they can no longer be representative of “the market”.

Sorry Michael but I don’t  think I overlook facts. Auction results are facts. What happens afterwards is unproven and much or the damage is already done. 
I am  not saying that auction houses represent the whole market but they are a factor……a highly visible one. I was an auction house consultant for many years (not for swords!)

 

This whole discussion seems to focus purely on top level blades …….i suspect but cannot prove that they represent only a modest slice of the total market.

[Gakusee]

2 hours ago, Matsunoki said:

Sorry Michael but I don’t  think I overlook facts. Auction results are facts. What happens afterwards is unproven and much or the damage is already done. 
I am  not saying that auction houses represent the whole market but they are a factor……a highly visible one. I was an auction house consultant for many years (not for swords!)

 

This whole discussion seems to focus purely on top level blades …….i suspect but cannot prove that they represent only a modest slice of the total market.

Yes, Colin auction houses are one element of the market. I agree with you. We can’t ignore that element.
All I am saying is that element has diminished so substantially in the last two decades that its importance in a multi-factorial model of evaluation of prices, desirability, relevance, importance, trends/ trajectories etc that it is not that informative (as the main driver of our observations and conclusions) anymore. The real prices (outside of the punitive 40-50% spread of value due to buyer/seller fees and taxes) at which items can and should clear are marred by that aforesaid spread. 
 

I am not sure why you claim the discussion is only around top blades. The auction house analysis or secrecy aspects stay the same regardless.
However,  in relation to appreciation:stagnation of value, then that is very pertinent and I agree with that comment.  Perhaps that is so because indeed the top end of the market (excellent or rare Juyo and above) has really appreciated, while Hozon has stagnated and TH is very tricky as one needs to be knowledgeable enough to figure out whether TH is simply not Juyo yet or it is a failed Juyo (thus, merely a slightly superior H). Unfortunately, in nihonto pricing, the ladder theory of gradation (H->TH->J etc) is a very strong determinant of prices. Jussi’s valuable data amply demonstrate that by having examples which were low priced when H/TH and then substantially appreciated when they became J/TJ. 
 

p.s. I was (not sure if seriously or jokingly but there is always a scintilla of truth even in facetiousness) asked to be an auction consultant and refused. Again, we need to move beyond what was relevant and valid twenty years ago and live in the modern world. 

[Lewis B]

Darcy used to sell some of the big name blades he acquired through the major auction houses. Given his contacts both in Japan and outside I can only surmise he chose that venue because they could command top dollar in a public auction. I think one blade he sold was a Norishige achieving ~$100k, which at that time it was a significant price for a sword by the smith. Maybe even the well heeled, inner circle, Japanese collectors have their limits...

[Matsunoki]

10 hours ago, Gakusee said:

Again, we need to move beyond what was relevant and valid twenty years ago and live in the modern world. 

Michael, you will see from my earlier comments that I fully understand and acknowledge the massive changes that have occurred within this market in the last 20 odd years. Having sold 58 swords in the last 2 years without going anywhere near an auction house I assure you I am in the real world with the massive caveat that that is within 

the insular and now somewhat isolated confines of the UK market. My swords were not stellar Juyo upwards items but mostly within the £2-10 k bracket which from what I see represents the “normal” UK market.

12 hours ago, Gakusee said:

The market is where most action happens and that is in Japan.

This statement puzzles me. What about the huge US market and the smaller but active ones in Europe, Australia etc?

All the swords shows in the US etc…..Or are we talking here (again?) about the very pinnacle of swords ie Juyo upwards?

12 hours ago, Gakusee said:

The market is where most action happens and that is in Japan. That is not accessible to the vast majority of NMB members and that is privileged info.

So again are we referring to the very top end?

12 hours ago, Gakusee said:

Of course you could endeavour to parse the “market” into segments such as the US market, the U.K. market etc but again that is a false methodology

Why is that false methodology? The hole market is indeed global but within that the geographical variations are enormous driven by supply/demand balances, economic/tax issues, shipping issues, market practices and customs etc They operate very differently and thus yield different results 

12 hours ago, Gakusee said:

all of these jurisdictions now primarily source from Japan nowadays

Again I’m puzzled…..the UK sources very little from Japan and I would venture to suggest that other markets are sourcing less from Japan…..it would be good to hear from some US dealers and collectors on that point. Or are we referring to top end items again?

 

Please don’t misinterpret me……the OP was asking about the “market” and I interpreted that to mean the whole market from top to bottom. Also I totally respect the enormous knowledge that those of you who collect higher end swords possess. Personally that has never been my objective but I take my hat of to those that have reached those dizzy heights. But please remember there is a huge market active below that.

[MassiveMoonHeh]

While Japanese blades remain in a 33 year vortex of very little appreciation because, I am reliably told, Japanese society just operates differently to the rest of the world.

 

Somehow Japanese art has managed to escape the back room private deals and just set a new world record for a woodblock print (yup, not an original - a print...) at an auction.

 

Is the Nihonto market really that different that it requires a different way of operating?

 

Makes you wonder... 👀

 

 

[Gakusee]

5 hours ago, Matsunoki said:

Michael, you will see from my earlier comments that I fully understand and acknowledge the massive changes that have occurred within this market in the last 20 odd years. Having sold 58 swords in the last 2 years without going anywhere near an auction house I assure you I am in the real world with the massive caveat that that is within 

the insular and now somewhat isolated confines of the UK market. My swords were not stellar Juyo upwards items but mostly within the £2-10 k bracket which from what I see represents the “normal” UK market.

This statement puzzles me. What about the huge US market and the smaller but active ones in Europe, Australia etc?

All the swords shows in the US etc…..Or are we talking here (again?) about the very pinnacle of swords ie Juyo upwards?

So again are we referring to the very top end?

Why is that false methodology? The hole market is indeed global but within that the geographical variations are enormous driven by supply/demand balances, economic/tax issues, shipping issues, market practices and customs etc They operate very differently and thus yield different results 

Again I’m puzzled…..the UK sources very little from Japan and I would venture to suggest that other markets are sourcing less from Japan…..it would be good to hear from some US dealers and collectors on that point. Or are we referring to top end items again?

 

Please don’t misinterpret me……the OP was asking about the “market” and I interpreted that to mean the whole market from top to bottom. Also I totally respect the enormous knowledge that those of you who collect higher end swords possess. Personally that has never been my objective but I take my hat of to those that have reached those dizzy heights. But please remember there is a huge market active below that.

 

Colin

Thanks. I am happy to have a call with you and discuss the state of the market in more detail.It is becoming too time-consuming to discuss here.  There are substantial regional dichotomies as well as level-related disparities. But the overall trends are consistent. 

Better still,  may I recommend that you could eventually come to one of our UK meetings in person (as you know, we have been meeting all over the UK for the last few years, with regional sessions in Birmingham, Scotland, London and even other parts of the country plus various large- and small-museum visits and also even dedicated samurai-themed auction house visits) and talk to a handful of people who are doing it (semi) professionally or me. Also, I tend to go to Japan 3-4 times a year and every visit contains a Nihonto element (study, appreciation, discussion about the market and dynamics, rather infrequently - the occasional purchase, etc). 
 

Best wishes. 

 

[eternal_newbie]

7 minutes ago, Gakusee said:

may I recommend that you could eventually come to one of our UK meetings in person

 

You will also find that meeting people in person will provide more data on the market that you might not be able to access on the internet, as not all of them will be very online (especially in a field such as this which tends to be dominated by older eccentrics).

[Jussi Ekholm]

Lukrez wrote amazing post above. As I am not a business person I haven't thought about specifics of market that much. However once you see how many swords there are currently for sale every day of the year, it is easy to understand that the dealers will probably have their own guidelines to price the average items. While it pains me to say it the vast majority of Japanese swords are average items. I am not talking about the quirky items that I personally like, just that even on various levels of quality most items are average. For these average items Japanese dealers most likely have their pattern to price the items and then they can add or reduce price depending on the actual item.

 

Now these are just examples that I chose randomly to give an example.

 

There are 99 Mumei katana with Rai Kunimitsu or den Rai Kunimitsu attribution at Jūyō. Now 13 of them have advanced to Tokubetsu Jūyō (well I am not yet sure of the origin of 2 of these new TJ) + 1 Mumei Kunitoshi and 1 Mumei Kuniyuki were switched to Kunimitsu at TJ. That would leave 86 Mumei Rai Kunimitsu Jūyō katana and I am sure the big dealers will have a common price for Jūyō Rai Kunimitsu katana that they will then adjust depending on the actual item.

 

I have so far recorded 176 Mumei Ko-Mihara katana. I would assume that dealers will have a common base price for Hozon, Tokubetsu Hozon or Jūyō rated item. While the "ladder theory" that Michael mentioned above is not 100% accurate there is usually a minimum price that Jūyō items tend to fetch, and it would need to be a very good Mumei Tokubetsu Hozon Ko-Mihara to achieve the minimum price for Jūyō mumei Ko-Mihara. Even if in my personal opinion the cheaper item might be better, the Jūyō papers carry a prestige.

 

As far as mid-higher level items go NBTHK papers are just something you pretty much expect the item to have. And the attribution that NBTHK gives to a mumei item can have a massive effect on the actual price of the item.

 

There are actually lots and lots of Japanese swords available for purchase at any given moment. As I started to browse many Japanese dealers years and years ago, I was surprised how many high quality items are even listed online by big dealers. Some big inventory dealers like Aoi Art or Meirin Sangyo add few new Japanese swords to their inventory pretty much every day. I was just looking at Yahoo Japan and there seems to be 5,210 listings at Japanese Sword section, there are items that are not swords in there too so I think something like 3,000 swords would be closer to truth. Every now and then an item that was on Yahoo JP makes it to inventory of more established dealer. I admit I am completely clueless about inner workings of sword dealers, their relationships, and most importantly the dealer auctions. I can just imagine the price dealers actually get the basic items is quite low as they are able to make profit even on their cheaper offerings that would be quite affordable.

 

In my personal opinion the high end items are just very small part of the market and the majority of items are lower and middle tier items.

[Bruce Pennington]

Brett, COVID was mentioned once, but not really looked into.  It would be interesting to see prices of the blades you discussed at the beginning, from '93 to 2019 - just prior to COVID.  On the military side, the high-end gunto - copper handle NCOs and Mantetsu - were climbing like crazy until COVID hit.  Both took a 50% drop over that 2 years, but both are now climbing back up.  They aren't back to pre-COVID prices, though.  I don't know their '93 prices, so this may not be a good comparison for your discussion.

[Matsunoki]

2 hours ago, Gakusee said:

may I recommend that you could eventually come to one of our UK meetings in person

Michael, thanks for the invite but having had a stand at the last 7 Birmingham Arms Fairs I have met a wide assortment of other collectors and dealers including many members of the Token etc. Those encounters and lively discussions plus the sales they have generated have given me a perspective on the current UK market and to an extent the issues that exist within it. Of course for those of you that visit Japan and collect at a higher level the perspective will be very different.

Also, as I am no longer collecting or owning swords I have not renewed my Token membership.There is no malice in that I assure you and I wish the Token and all other enthusiasts great enjoyment and happiness within this unique “hobby”.

I am now moving on to sell my gun collection, that might not be so easy.

[Rawa]

One question from me:

whether nihonto market adjusts prices in relation to currency fluctuations? Yen droped 40% in 15 years. Imo high end old blades are bad investment

Edited 22 hours ago by Rawa

[Sansei]

4 hours ago, Rawa said:

One question from me:

whether nihonto market adjusts prices in relation to currency fluctuations? Yen droped 40% in 15 years. Imo high end old blades are bad investment

 

Good question Marcin. I have been following this thread throughout and was wondering when someone would mention foreign exchange rates. My contact and buyer in Japan has told me that he has sold the same sword a number of times back and forth from Japan to the USA. He said the the primary determination of timing of a sale and price was the exchange rate. 

[Robert S]

14 hours ago, MassiveMoonHeh said:

While Japanese blades remain in a 33 year vortex of very little appreciation because, I am reliably told, Japanese society just operates differently to the rest of the world.

 

Somehow Japanese art has managed to escape the back room private deals and just set a new world record for a woodblock print (yup, not an original - a print...) at an auction.

 

Is the Nihonto market really that different that it requires a different way of operating?

 

Makes you wonder... 👀

 

 

Just to clear up a misunderstanding - that is an original - an original woodblock print.  It's not a copy of any other piece of art.  A bunch of people who I won't characterize because the language would be seriously foul have confused the whole market by claiming that things like giclee reproductions are "original prints", which they aren't.  As a once-upon-a-time full time printmaker, I'll stop there, because otherwise this will turn into a novel length rant :-)

[Robert S]

On the subject of auction houses, I fully agree that their current ability to assess and price Japanese art is abysmal.  I occasionally buy from Bonhams, etc., and honestly, their catalogues are the far side of terrible... which sometimes creates opportunities, but usually just means that anyone not physically present is bidding blind.  Auction results have to be taken with a gigantic grain of salt, since the person who might have been the most interested in an item likely never bid because they couldn't fully know what they were bidding on.  When it comes time to sell some of the objects I've collected, they won't be going through one of those houses, because with items in the sub $20,000 range... and often higher than that... they are simply not interested in optimizing the sale price. 

[MassiveMoonHeh]

1 hour ago, Robert S said:

Just to clear up a misunderstanding - that is an original - an original woodblock print.  It's not a copy of any other piece of art.  A bunch of people who I won't characterize because the language would be seriously foul have confused the whole market by claiming that things like giclee reproductions are "original prints", which they aren't.  As a once-upon-a-time full time printmaker, I'll stop there, because otherwise this will turn into a novel length rant :-)

Robert, apologies - I never meant to discredit the art work or cause you to rant.

 

My comment was such that being a woodblock print (which I did mention it was) there are multiple prints around (experts suggest 8,000 were printed of The Great Wave, although only 100 are now said to survive) from the same woodblock - so it is not a one off like a Nihonto. Yet even as a multiple it outsold our back room deals on Top drawer original nihontos and even the latest original one off Mikazuki Kanimitsu closed bid auction (although maybe it didn't - we just don't know) and the price of this print was not hidden but very public. With Sothebies even putting out a YouTube video of the event to drum up more business. Because records are exciting and bring interest and people into a space.

 

This was more to the point of what I was suggesting rather than the print was some knock off gilcee print.

 

Please accept my apologies.

[Robert S]

2 minutes ago, MassiveMoonHeh said:

Robert, apologies - I never meant to discredit the art work or cause you to rant.

 

My comment was such that being a woodblock print (which I did mention it was) there are multiple prints around (experts suggest 8,000 were printed of The Great Wave, although only 100 are now said to survive) from the same woodblock - so it is not a one off like a Nihonto. Yet even as a multiple it outsold our back room deals on Top drawer original nihontos and even the latest original one off Mikazuki Kanimitsu closed bid auction (although maybe it didn't - we just don't know) and the price of this print was not hidden but very public. With Sothebies even putting out a YouTube video of the event to drum up more business. Because records are exciting and bring interest and people into a space.

 

This was more to the point of what I was suggesting rather than the print was some knock off gilcee print.

 

Please accept my apologies.

Absolutely no apologies required!  It's an old issue for me which I fought in the market at one time.  You're quite correct that there are a number of original impressions of the famous wave still in existence... but they have one huge advantage in the market - absolutely everyone knows the image... and recognizes it as a masterpiece, where-as 99.9 (and several more 9s) percent of people wouldn't be able to tell the difference between a masamune and a chinese fake.  Personally I'm slightly better than that... but not enough to be able to know with any certainty what I'm looking at beyond some idea of period when I see a nihonto, without significant research :-)  It's such a fascinatingly high skill field, and I am frequently in awe of the knowledge of some on this forum, but that barrier is significant, and does impact the market.