The state of the Nihonto Market at the end 2025

[Brano]

11 hours ago, Rawa said:

One question from me:

whether nihonto market adjusts prices in relation to currency fluctuations? Yen droped 40% in 15 years. Imo high end old blades are bad investment

First of all - no one should buy nihonto as an investment
If you want to invest then buy SP500, BRK or something similar

 

However I will give just one example that I heard from Darcy because at that time I was not in this hobby yet
In 2012 the USD/Yen exchange rate was 1:80 approximately
There was a great TokuJu Yukimitsu for 10mil Yen (125k USD)
There were two TokuJu Yukimitsu at the last DTI. One average for 27mil and one supposedly great (I did not have a chance to see this blade) for 36mil
Over the last 4-5 years the prices of top blades have increased significantly

 

[Lewis B]

30 minutes ago, Brano said:

First of all - no one should buy nihonto as an investment
If you want to invest then buy SP500, BRK or something similar

 

However I will give just one example that I heard from Darcy because at that time I was not in this hobby yet
In 2012 the USD/Yen exchange rate was 1:80 approximately
There was a great TokuJu Yukimitsu for 10mil Yen (125k USD)
There were two TokuJu Yukimitsu at the last DTI. One average for 27mil and one supposedly great (I did not have a chance to see this blade) for 36mil
Over the last 4-5 years the prices of top blades have increased significantly

 

Could this be the higher priced TJ Yukimitsu? Dealer had it priced at 38mil 2 yrs ago

 

https://www.tsuruginoya.com/items/f00665.html

[Brano]

9 hours ago, Lewis B said:

Could this be the higher priced TJ Yukimitsu? Dealer had it priced at 38mil 2 yrs ago

 

https://www.tsuruginoya.com/items/f00665.html

Yes - it could be this blade, because the seller is the same

[Rivkin]

There is an interesting book called "Economy of taste", but it is not very applicable to Asian items. Extending its gist, with Art and antiques price increase tend to come in waves, associated with "disposable cash" accumulation by the top 0.1%. Plus periodic re-evaluation of specific subjects which might not have been popular before.

It shows how a lot of current allure of Russian museum collections comes from it being the XVIIIth century market for what back then was considered second tier collectibles like Van Hals, which were dumped there in quantities, but now these artists are considered first tier.

 

In nihonto I think the recent valuation of Norishige, Yukimitsu, Akihiro, Oei Bizen compared to what it relatively was 100 years ago is because the last 20 years helped items whose quality can be recognized even on average photos. You can read a lot about how great Rai Kunitoshi in suguha is, but on photographs Norishige is definitely going to look more impressive. Which quite frankly is a real thing.

Expanding on this, it is possible that many blades which are great on papers and attributions, but creepy looking will slowly devalue compared to more visually impressive schools and examples.

But otherwise, nihonto is probably never going to make money as a whole.

Edited December 4, 2025 by Rivkin

[Marcin]

Guys dunno If I should mention it here but many sources predicts increasing interest rates on yen by another 0.25% this month. Dunno if it will end same way as in july 2024.

But I expect that Usd/Jpy ratio will drop. Though usd is not my basic currency. 
I just want to notice this situation as many members want to make purchases in coming days.

[Sansei]

2 hours ago, Rawa said:

Guys dunno If I should mention it here but many sources predicts increasing interest rates on yen by another 0.25% this month. Dunno if it will end same way as in july 2024.

But I expect that Usd/Jpy ratio will drop. Though usd is not my basic currency. 
I just want to notice this situation as many members want to make purchases in coming days.

Marcin,

 

I concur. At the same time in the USA, interest rates are decreasing; 25 basis points this month.

 

RayM