Any stats on gimei?

[Alex A]

Lets face it and is been said before.

 

Its not an exact science.

[Jussi Ekholm]

I don't think NBTHK has published an amount of failed blades per Hozon/Tokubetsu Hozon shinsa session. The fact that 100,000+ blades have passed their evaluation makes the possibility of an error or two being in the mix very likely. However as we human are as we are, I don't think 90% of us would complain if they would paper a signature that we might feel is gimei. On the flipside you can easily see how negatively people can react when signed items do not pass, and yes by the probablity of an error most likely a legimate signature has been bounced back and perhaps passed another time. NBTHK is not the only authority when it comes to Japanese swords and there are various opinions on things, museums, shrines, organizations might have different views on things.

 

For some smiths you can literally find hundreds of validated comparison mei, while for some you might struggle to find 5 reference ones. That will make things lot more complicated when it comes to evaluating the signature. Then there are blades that would be atypical for the smith, and if the traits would not fit that particular smith if the sword would not be signed it would most likely not be attributed to that specific smith.

 

I do feel that market is very much pro NBTHK papers and their attribution for mumei blades will affect the price very much. That is pretty much why I have not decide to go after high quality because I cannot afford it and focus on items that I like. You can get quite similarish blades from lesser schools for much less investment and for me the attribution itself isn't that big deal. I always mentioned that I have never sent an item to a shinsa and probably wont for few years at least (it is just quite costly and complicated vs. the benefit for a basic item).

 

There are swords that have been reappraised by NBTHK on later date and for example the smith has changed. Or mei that was at first needing more research is confirmed authentic. Example for the first one would be an ōdachi by Yoshimune (吉宗) that was at Jūyō shinsa judged as Yoshioka Ichimonji Yoshimune but at Tokubetsu Jūyō it was judged as Ko-Bizen Yoshimune. Another example would be long tachi by Sukemori (助盛) that was judged Ōmiya work at Jūyō but reappraised as Ko-Bizen Sukemori at Tokubetsu Jūyō. There is an example ken where the smith was first passed as Takafuji (讃州高藤作) at Jūyō 27 then reappraised at Jūyō 52 as Yukimitsu (讃州高藤行) [光] being cut off. With really old stuff proper identification can be extremely difficult even for the experts.

[Bruno]

Shinshin-to smiths are among the category with the most numerous gimei, on the contrary gendai-to smiths seem to be the category with the less gimei.

[Jacques D.]

In addition to what jussy said, you have to take into account the number of swords that exist for a given smith? If it's few, it's harder to distinguish whether the mei is shoshin. The works of certain smiths like Go Yoshihiro are judged by existing literature . in short, it's a world of which we know almost nothing, and to criticize it is to show a certain audacity, as  they're real experts, and we're light years ahead of them..

[Alex A]

Don't think anyone was criticizing them Jacques, just trying to get our heads around what's very difficult to get our heads around. 

 

Cheers for the data Jussi, much appreciated.

 

[Paz]

On 3/2/2024 at 11:43 AM, Bruno said:

Shinshin-to smiths are among the category with the most numerous gimei, on the contrary gendai-to smiths seem to be the category with the less gimei.

 

The shinshinto period ie bakamatsu was quite a turbulent time historically. And the samurai were preparing for conflict with either one of the foreign Western powers, or civil war again. So the demand for swords rose during this period possibly. With more Interest, more gimei, more to be sold. 

Besides that, we also have many top smiths who's works were highly in demand. 

 

Just my thoughts. But shinshinto / late edo is one of my favourite era in history. 

[Alex A]

I like the info that comes with some late Edo smiths, and onwards up to the present day.

[Jacques D.]

On 3/2/2024 at 10:25 AM, Alex A said:

Lets face it and is been said before.

 

Its not an exact science.

 

Do you have the necessary knowledge to judge? I don't.

[Alex A]

Jacques, briefly.

 

Firstly, Utmost respect for those guys.

 

Secondly, When it comes to me spending my hard earned money i question EVERYTHING. There was a time when i used to think "oh, it has papers so all is good", those days have gone.

 

Seeing what I've seen over the years, with other antiques and not just Japanese swords has made me extremely wary and cautious. Many instances where items have been messed with to increase value. Its kind of made me a bit pedantic when it comes to authenticity., hence now become more interested in items with provenance,

 

I make sure i become "expert" enough to have my own opinion in anything I'm spending money on.

 

As said earlier, don't like relying on other folks opinions for anything i own.

[Alex A]

18 hours ago, Jacques D. said:

 

Do you have the necessary knowledge to judge? I don't.

 

 

 

Also, judging by your recent reply here in another thread, you come across as an hypocrite lecturing

us.......

 

Pretty derogatory really. 

 

"As Tanobe sensei charges for his sayagaki (one Japanese polisher I know even says he'd do them on umbrellas if he was paid well), he's inclined to "embellish" reality. That said, he's fallible like any human being, and that's why a college of experts is preferable to a single opinion (In science, it's the same thing: there are books and peer-reviewed articles)."

[Matsunoki]

On 3/2/2024 at 9:28 PM, Jacques D. said:

. in short, it's a world of which we know almost nothing, and to criticize it is to show a certain audacity, as  they're real experts, and we're light years ahead of them..

Can anyone explain this please?

what world are we talking about?

who are we light years ahead of?

I’ve read it many times and makes no sense

[Mikaveli]

Similar to Alex, I've got respect for the NBTHK shinsa team - but questioning doesn't equate to criticism, as Jacques seems to assert.

 

Any process involving people is fallible - and appealing to authority isn't enough for me. Just look at the number of misdiagnosis from medical doctors - and then the education and qualifications required to perform in those roles.

 

I don't know what credentials / qualifications are required to appraise a sword and signature as genuine - but I'd imagine it crosses into quite a few fields; sword and political history, forging / smithing, Japanese language knowledge (including old / archaic writing), signature analysis, materials analysis (corrosion, aging, composition etc.) and so on.

 

I work with a few PhDs, and whilst they're clever guys, their field of expertise narrows as the depth of their knowledge increases. They certainly don't know everything and make mistakes like anyone else. It'd be the height of hubris to assume there's nothing they could learn from less qualified or experienced people.

 

So, yeah, I'd view the NBTHK as a highly respected authority, and I'd want a fairly high body of evidence to challenge their opinion. That's still not criticism though - as their appraisal should hold up to scrutiny - and, as in any scientific process, be prepared to change if evidence is later presented that might suggest otherwise.

[Toryu2020]

Colin -

I think he meant to say we are light years behind them, does that make more sense?

[Matsunoki]

34 minutes ago, Toryu2020 said:

does that make more sense?

Thomas, thanks. He meant exactly the opposite of what he said? That could be confusing in a topic discussing Shinsa and gimei🙂

Im still not sure which “world” we are talking about though

Anyway we are all entitled to our opinions are we not?

Best.Colin

 

 

 

 

[Franco D]

We cannot control what happens at the NBTHK's or NTHK's or NTHK NPO's end of the shinsa equation. However, we can control our end of things and that's where our focus should be. We are in control of analyzing and learning from the results we are given (attempting to understand why and how the shinsa team reached their conclusion). We are in control of our sword selection. We are in control of selecting the right polisher to a great extent.  We are in control of our educational materials and support and the amount of time we dedicate to studying. Nihonto collecting experiences are often difficult, costly, and, yes, disappointing. But through determination those experiences can be successful, rewarding, and even enlightening. We should not expect shinsa to do our homework for us. Shinsa simply grades how well we've prepared. Nihonto collecting should be thought of as an open book test.  

 

 As for gimei. Alan H. Pressley wrote an article or two about the 1989 NTHK shinsa. I believe that one of the articles gave stats on pass/fail/gimei, but I'm still searching for it. In the one article I have found, more than half the swords submitted that year were bounced for being substandard (a number between 60% to 65% sits in my memory), and of the signed swords that failed more than half of those failed for being gimei. Even knowing how many swords were submitted that year (anybody ???) might begin to shed some light on numbers. 

Buyer beware.

[Mikaveli]

Ouch, more than half of the signed failed as gimei! 🙈

 

I've got a blade going in to the June shinsa (which will be a first for me 😅). I'm happy with the condition etc. but I'm only 60% confident on the mei...

 

It's not one of the obvious gimei, but neither is it a perfect match for the examples I've seen. Fingers crossed, but I have to be prepared for it to come back as a fake.

[Franco D]

29 minutes ago, Mikaveli said:

Ouch, more than half of the signed failed as gimei! 🙈

 

44 minutes ago, Franco D said:

of the signed swords that failed more than half of those failed for being gimei.

 

 

[Franco D]

1 hour ago, Mikaveli said:

It's not one of the obvious gimei, but neither is it a perfect match for the examples I've seen. Fingers crossed, but I have to be prepared for it to come back as a fake.

 

Not to raise false hope. However, I know of one signed sword that had no fewer than 6 differences in its mei from all 12 verified published examples of the mei. To make a long story short, that sword passed both the NTHK and NBTHK shinsas with flying colors. Why, because the sword was a textbook example of the sword smith's work. The sword confirmed the mei and not the other way around. And on that note, the importance of the polish cannot be overemphasized especially for a highly rated smith. Not all polishes are equal.

 

p.s. the importance of the polish probably goes double for a mumei sword.

 

[Jacques D.]

On 3/4/2024 at 8:29 AM, Alex A said:

 

 

 

Also, judging by your recent reply here in another thread, you come across as an hypocrite lecturing

us.......

 

Pretty derogatory really. 

 

"As Tanobe sensei charges for his sayagaki (one Japanese polisher I know even says he'd do them on umbrellas if he was paid well), he's inclined to "embellish" reality. That said, he's fallible like any human being, and that's why a college of experts is preferable to a single opinion (In science, it's the same thing: there are books and peer-reviewed articles)."

You don't have all the knowledge you need, even if you think you do. Buying an object doesn't make the buyer an expert.

As you quoted me, I took the liberty of enhancing an essential part of what I'm saying.

 

I'm a physicist, specialized in fluids and especially atmospheres, but I'm not good at solid-state physics beyond the common basics (photon and phonon are quite different). The same goes for experts: a Nihonto expert is not a firearms expert, and vice versa. We must know where we belong and stay there. Unfortunately, the Internet pushes people to believe they know more than they do (some people even go to their doctor and say: "Doctor, I have this and I need this treatment") and, no, not all opinions are equal.   

 

 

[Alex A]

You sure know how to over complicate things, Jacques

 

 

[Mikaveli]

52 minutes ago, Jacques D. said:

The same goes for experts: a Nihonto expert is not a firearms expert, and vice versa. We must know where we belong and stay there. 

 

Are you proposing some kind of caste system... 🤔😅

 

"Firearms expert" well, that's a broad topic. You're not going to find someone who knows everything about matchlocks, shotguns, military / service weapons and modern handguns all to the Nth degree. It's very possible (and common) for a collector to know more about a specific area (say variants of Enfield service rifles) than a professional with a different (or broader) focus.

 

As a side note, I've been to the doctor and said "Doctor, I have this and I need this treatment" - albeit phrased a little more humbly, including an apology for the self-diagnosis. He told me I was absolutely correct, and that was exactly what was needed.

 

Conversely, I've had friends overuled by teams of experts, only to have their lay opinion proved correct much later. Including more than one occasion with tragic consequences.

 

Again, there is no human involved process that's infallible. Qualifications and positions of authority do not hold any monopoly on correctness.

 

One reason why doctors sometimes misdiagnose is many combinations of symptoms fit many illnesses. And sometimes the way they present is atypical. 

 

Most of the arguments I've heard about attributions for swords eventually spiral into a circular argument - matching existing known works to be attributed as such. Disallowing exceptions - or the possibility that the existing reference information may itself contain inaccuracies.

[Alex A]

If we are to believe Jacques, then we have no business buying books, researching and definitely not buying antique swords.

 

Its all so pathetic, troll detector has detected a signal.

 

 

[PNSSHOGUN]

Knowledge is only possible with a piece of paper stating you are allowed to know it.

[Rivkin]

Another reason I like war. Well, like is a strong word, burying friends every month is problematic. I worship it though.

Everyone comes to it motivated by what professional councils of experts believed to be true.

Convinced the opponents' experts is evil conspiracy which lives by lies and serves we know whom

.

Year into war it becomes apparent that everywhere and every council member gained (insert pronouns) position purely by being loyal to the previous generation of experts. Their opinions are valued only because they are mutually supported by other experts. None of it even remotely relates to reality - yet it is the reality that is resisted at all costs by the experts.

Its even worse in stuff like Art history and other things where you can't really prove anything and what experts believe can actually become reality. Museums... Aside from Markus Sesko none of them has the slightest knowledge of subject... positions filled solely by the right people who are students of even righter people.

 

NBTHK, NHTK, NTHK NPO.

Yes, 99% of criticism against shinsa comes out from people whose treasure was gimeied and who simply don't know enough to make a judgement and understand why. Unfortunately, today its no longer the sole issue.

None of those blades shinsa people has a name that can be associated with a solid publication like Dr. Honma's; none presented and defended his general position on attributions and related issues. Very unfortunately - it shows. 

Simple experiment with each group - submitting published and sayagakied Juyo from years back. Turned out it was: Bungo, Kaga, or Echizen Seki. If you know which organization favors which bucket attribution you can guess who did what. To be fair - even in full polish it was really taxing on eyes and you should have spent a LOT of time to see everything there and understand what it is. If all you did just pointed it towards a light source, then its just a sharp stick by any other name. Sometimes its working conditions not the people per se which derail the process.

 

I do not have a formal school, as in high school, education.

[Mark S.]

23 hours ago, Mikaveli said:

 

I work with a few PhDs, and whilst they're clever guys, their field of expertise narrows as the depth of their knowledge increases. They certainly don't know everything and make mistakes like anyone else.

 

Hijack alert!  But the above statement very much matches a quote I keep on my wall at work (originally came from my high school architectural drafting teacher):

 

ARCHITECTS are said to be people who know very little about a great deal and keep knowing less and less about more and more until they know practically nothing about everything.

 

ENGINEERS are said to be people who know a great deal about very little and keep knowing more and more about less and less until they know practically everything about nothing.

 

CONTRACTORS are said to be people who know practically everything about everything but end up knowing nothing about anything due to their association with Architects and Engineers.

 

HOMEOWNERS are said to be people who start out knowing nothing and never learn anything due to their association with Architects, Engineers and Contractors.

 

Maybe we could insert Sword Expert, Sword Dealer, Sword Collector, and Sword Newbie into these categories? 
 

Hijack over… sorry.

[Alex A]

Think its the old putting stuff in brackets again scenario.

 

Obviously there are swords that even baffle "experts" and end up with conflicting opinions, old and unsigned, whatever.

 

Then there are swords that are pretty straight forward.,

 

Luckily for me, prefer the latter.

 

Hopefully that makes what I've been saying clearer for anyone confused or those that are not confident to know what they own and rely on someone to tell them.

 

Horses for courses.

 

You know your at the end of saying what you want to say when you realize your going around in circles.

 

 

[Matsunoki]

5 hours ago, Jacques D. said:

We must know where we belong and stay there

Says who????…….and coming from a scientist???!!. Maybe we should all go back to caves and wooden clubs and start fires using sticks rubbed together.

5 hours ago, Jacques D. said:

Unfortunately, the Internet pushes people to believe they know more than they do

……it also pushes and enables people to vastly expand their knowledge and understanding on just about any subject thus knowing far more than they did before. 
 

…..but I do agree not all opinions are equal. Some are vastly inflated…….and I know that mine are worthless - except to me.

[Jacques D.]

4 hours ago, Alex A said:

If we are to believe Jacques, then we have no business buying books, researching and definitely not buying antique swords.

 

Its all so pathetic, troll detector has detected a signal.

 

 

Perfect nonsense, we just have to know our limits (i perfectly know mine) and those are far away from expert's ones. If I put 2 swords in your hands, one from shodai Tadatsuna, the other from nidai with the nakago hidden, would you be able to tell which one is by the shodai? No, the experts can. They may be wrong, but you don't have the knowledge to judge. I don't have this knowledge too, even if I know a lot more than you and the majority of the members of this forum. That's why I'd never question their judgment. It's the same thing with climate skeptics: they know nothing about the subject but reject the work of real specialists. 

[Alex A]

1 hour ago, Jacques D. said:

Perfect nonsense, we just have to know our limits (i perfectly know mine) and those are far away from expert's ones. If I put 2 swords in your hands, one from shodai Tadatsuna, the other from nidai with the nakago hidden, would you be able to tell which one is by the shodai? No, the experts can. They may be wrong, but you don't have the knowledge to judge. I don't have this knowledge too, even if I know a lot more than you and the majority of the members of this forum. That's why I'd never question their judgment. It's the same thing with climate skeptics: they know nothing about the subject but reject the work of real specialists. 

 

Ridiculous, for a "scientist", you don't half come out with some crap.

 

Ive not studied Tadatsuna, but if one can tell the difference between two swords by looking at them in hand then its not **** rocket science!!!!!!!!!!!. Obviously, if you know what to look for then it makes it doable. These "experts" don't have super human eyes like telescopes, we are not looking at stars, they are not X Men

 

 You cant expect everyone to think like you, very narrow.

 

Also, you like to put others down, to elevate yourself. Suspect you do this because your have issues, narcistic, insecure or whatever. You need to grow up.

 

Anyways, as said, said all i need to say, always a pleasure

 

Look forward to any sensible input from others though.

[Andrew Ickeringill]

6 hours ago, Alex A said:

 

Ive not studied Tadatsuna, but if one can tell the difference between two swords by looking at them in hand then its not **** rocket science!!!!!!!!!!!. Obviously, if you know what to look for then it makes it doable.

 

I’ve not studied rocket science, but if one can tell the difference between two atoms by looking at them under a microscope then it’s not **** kantei!!!!!!!!!!! Obviously, if you know what to look for then it makes it doable.