Hoshi

Hi Robert, I couldn't agree more. My earlier comment was not criticism of the focus. The factual errors that we have vehemently denounced are the product of a particular paradigm of historical analysis that focuses on power dynamics, deconstructionism, and post-modern revisionism. In this paradigm, convergence towards historical accuracy is subordinated to the greater goal of pushing novel narratives to enact society change. It is this inversion of teleology that I take as responsible for the fall of Western scholarship in our field. Or, simply put: when the purpose of scholarship shifts from "finding out what was true" to "changing what people believe," accuracy becomes optional and errors become inevitable. Hope this helps to clarify my position, Hoshi

Alas, This video is very difficult to watch. Beyond the factual errors, it is representative of the lack of museum budgets for qualified curators and European decline in museum scholarship on Arms & Armor. This is not to blame the presenter. His effort is earnest, and I am sympathetic to his predicament in the society he is embedded in, it is a survival strategy. He is but a symptom of a deeper societal issue. This is a general trend, museums follow the elite taste and ideology of their donors and subsidizing government bodies. Sadly, the BM has been marred in a battle against the Woke Mind Virus and its denunciation of colonial history that renders everything it owns, hires, and does, suspect. The presenter is a product of this tension. It is an unfortunate situation, but this too will come to pass in the broader arc of history when necessity calls back for common sense. Best, Hoshi

Indeed, hence why I did not mention his name, nor that of Yukimitsu.

Hello, While perhaps controversial, I have come to the conclusion that "Masamune's ten disciples" is best understood as a memory aid. This practice of memory aid, I believe, was quite common during the Edo period. The most parsimonious explanation is not that smiths traveled, rather, armies traveled across garrisons, and these travels led to the spread of different styles of sword-making. The exception is of course after the fall of Kamakura, where smiths were displaced not by choice, but by survival requirement. I understand that it is not good from a marketing perspective to adopt this view, but it is more congruent with the western school of historical analysis, which tends to be less deferential to historical sources. While Masamune's historical existence is attested beyond doubt, one must remember that he was not the only smith in Sagami working in nie-deki. It is perhaps more parsimonious, all things considered, to speak of Sagami influence on the taste of high-ranking Bushi dispatched across strategic garrison strongholds. This is further supported by the fact that the archetypical Masamune style, with its otherworldy Inazuma, unaffected yubashiri, and distinct angular chickei, is not reproduced anywhere else or during any other time period. Rather, we see a more pronounced emphasis on chickei and nie. The only maker who comes close is Go Yoshihiro in the traditional attribution corpus. Go Yoshihiro, Shizu Kaneuji, and Sadamune are the most likely candidate smiths for a direct student connection. Best, Hoshi

Dear @MassiveMoonHeh, Thank you for your dedicated effort on this, it is much appreciated. Yamanaka is a precious resource. Best, Hoshi

Hi, I wrote about this sword here. The sword was twisted, and as a result of repair, these shinae appeared. Best Hoshi

Hello, Yes, blue papers are not comparable to green papers. They are, in general, closer to the truth - survivorship bias not withstanding. They are also more "lenient" - and subtle downgrade are not uncommon (but it is rarely a free fall). The reason for this is that blue papers were issued by the central authority of the NBHTK, and not regional branches. This is the root of Han Bin Siong's observation. Well, it somehow does if you're deep into this. In your example above, your set went from being a true daisho (2 swords, 1 papers) to two distinct blades with separate papers. This means the modern NBHTK judges did not find sufficient evidence to conclude that both swords were ordered from the smith with the intent of forming a daisho. While this may not seem like much, it has surprising implications on the market with regard to value. We are entering arcane topics, but it is worth pointing out. Nonetheless, I would still insist on modern NBHTK papers and Tanobe sensei Sayagaki, and evaluate every piece deeply, in context. Hope this helps, Hoshi

Hi, I am bothered by this blade and I am not too keen comment, but I will do it to honor Darcy's memory. A newcomer to this hobby will inevitably have his perception shaped by Aoi's offerings, which as one comes to learn, are arbitrage opportunities for blades that do not make it in Japan, with few exceptions. One must learn from great blades first and foremost, and such a sword is an experience that teaches the wrong things. Some context: I find it irresponsible of Shinsa to make a call to "Den Masamune" on such a sword. One could argue that they've hedged it with "Den" - and unfortunately this is a misrepresentation. All Masamune without Kinzogan or Kiwame by the best Hon'ami judges or featured as Meibutsu are "Den" with only very few calls diverging from this pattern historically. Some of the Masamune blades without "Den" are shakier than the ones with Den, and so forth. It is not a simple attribution, and calls for deep contextualization. Then inevitably comes the unorthodox positions that Masamune doesn't exist, that he's unneeded, that this is evidence that his work is not that great, and so on, and so forth. I don't want to go there, I find it silly. Then there is the absurd claim by Aoi that "Choshiki was one of the most respected judges..." - Darcy used to say that an attribution by Choshiki means anything but. Since Tanobe sensei's departure from the Shinsa panel, the NBHTK is more swayed by Choshiki judgements than in the past. If you are really deep into this field, you know that since 2022, it is a good time to target blades with Choshiki attributions for Shinsa. There is only one "Den Masamune" in the Juyo record with a Choshiki attribution, and the setsumei states that this is the work of Shizu. Now, when faced with such a TH blade, there is no context on the attribution, and this absence of context is damaging. This absence of context is why Den Yukimitsu, Den Norishige, or Den Shizu are much safer harbors at TH and have been traditionally preferred before going so far as to calling it Masamune. Back to the blade in question. It is tired and has been extensively repaired. This sword has suffered a tragic accident in the past: it was twisted. Someone repaired it, and by untwisting it created a plethora of shinae, or bend marks. These shinae appear as ware/fukure along the ji. Some of these ugly openings have been filled with umegane. Choshiki calls attention to this fact in his Sayagaki, which has conveniently been left untranslated. While it is true that the extensive jinie of the blade, and the angular chickei and inazuma are characteristics of Masamune, this is all there is to it. And before people bring up "Ogiba" and other arcane Hon'ami things, just don't bother, no, this is not relevant anymore since the mid-20th century and the great cleanup of inflated Edo attribution. The sword is missing Masamune's defining trait: the highest class of nie executed in a nie kuzure that leaves no visible nioiguchi demarcation line. Masamune's nie unfolds in layer to the light, with different nie sizes reflecting light at different angles, leading to a kaleidoscopic effect which can only truly be experienced in hand. Unaffected Yubashiri emerge from the interplay at the hamon, fading in and out of existence when swiveling the blade. The deposits of nie form clouds of diamond dust. The contrast between ji and the ha is the brightest amongst all the Soshu Joko. The hamon is formed out of overlapping clouds of nie. It's unlike anything else. What "Masamune" means We don't have a time machine. At the end of the day, "who made it" remains an open question. While we know that Masamune existed historically (it is proven by pre-edo sources), we can never be sure that a particular hand made a particular swords, especially when the corpus of blades contains such a paucity of signed examples. Are the best works of Yukimitsu, Norishige, and others, likely to be absorbed in the Masamune attribution? Certainly, but this is true elsewhere as well. Within the Masamune attribution group, there is indeed great variety. Some have a distinct Ko-Bizen flair, others are veritable storms of inazuma crossing in and out of the ji with violent angular formations, and the last group are masterworks of such virtuosity that they truly defy understanding and fit absolutely nowhere else in the Soshu corpus due to the quality of their nie. All these blades have in common nie kuzure, unaffected yubashiri, and the feeling that the nie diffuses out into the ji as china ink spreading on paper. Masamune is a snowstorm over the ocean painted in sumi-e ink. Blades that leave you wondering if a human could have made it. Swords that stand in pure defiance to the laws of metallurgy. Masamune means perfection of nie-deki. Best, Hoshi

Hello, I realize that my previous post may have been too theoretically-slanted. For the benefit of the broader readership, it's worth clearing things up. Claim: Prices are down on the items I found online. Your sample is not representative. On a representative industry price survey, DTI24 -> DTI25, top TJ prices are up ~+25%+, Juyo+ were mostly absent (TJ coming up 2026), Juyo- items are stable. Claim: Auction house all time high has not been exceeded since the Compton sales Auction house ATH has been broken (see Mikazuki Kanemitsu) 418'000$ -> 1'300'000$ (although, I caution that this is a perfectly meaningless measure) Claim: 50% of items went unsold, therefore the market is down because seller's reserve on a per-item basis has not been met What matters for the seller and auction house are the total sale proceeds, not the item clearance rate. Total sales proceed is driven by crown-jewel items (power-law distribution) and it has been a resounding success from this perspective. And finally, are you sure you want more transparency, liquidity, and participants? It would be relatively simple to "pump prices" in this field, as such a market is extremely sensitive to new whales joining. Do we want more speculation-minded deep pockets with no education? At your risk and perils. The center cannot hold. Be careful what you wish for. Hoshi

Hi Brett, I appreciate the effort you've put into this. Let me offer some insights. First, it's important to understand the structural difference of the markets you are comparing. Western collectible markets strive to minimize knowledge asymmetries and maximize price transparency, which in turns increases market activity, liquidity, and trust. You see this with numismatic, comics, Tolkien and Harry Potter, fine watches, Baseball cards, etc. These objects are commodities: aside from an objectively-gradable condition, they do not differ for a specific item type. A black lotus is a black lotus, minus the crooked corner. Furthermore, they are extensively catalogued, and their their rarity is a matter of common-knowledge for market participants. This legibility combined with immediate liquidity provides reassurance to buyers. When COVID hit, and enthusiasts in their 40's with disposable income are suddenly carried by nostalgia, the collectible market's inherent transparency gives an easy way to park money in confidence. In other words, collectibles are commodities, and commodities due to their transparency are friendly to new market participants. Nihonto, on the other hand, are not commodities, and they follow the opposite market structure. Knowledge asymmetry is sky high and price transparency is almost non-existent. The items themselves are not legible. You simply do not know what you get, and it is exceedingly difficult to situate it within the broader spectrum of rarity or desirability. This lack of transparency increases transaction costs and risks for new market participants. You can't go wrong buying a graded Black Lotus, but at a similar price point, you can be very, very wrong buying a Juyo mumei Rai Kunimitsu if you use Aoi's past prices alone as your guiding function. If you go into Nihonto with a comic book collecting mindset, you will commit costly mistakes. What does the Compton Collection have in common with the magnificent Kanemitsu tachi that sold for over 200 million yen? What would the top items sold during the legendary "Museum of Sword Fittings" auction sell for today? Now, we are talking about comparable. I will leave it to you as an intellectual exercise to disentangle the structural difference from the items you've been following that have cycled through other auction houses which form the foundation of your analysis on price decline. Add to this a cultural layer that differs from our own in terms of values (Japan vs the West) - as well as different tax policies that create their own class of structural incentives, and you will begin to understand that the foundational data you use to support your analysis only translates to a specific class of items. As others have wisely pointed out, the vast majority of Nihonto transactions that would matter for such an analysis simply go unrecorded, and are carried out between trusted parties in total secrecy. There, million $+ exchanges are not uncommon. The more precious and rare the item, the greater the shroud of secrecy. So, you are left with the tip of the iceberg, and doesn't translate to the vast mass hidden under the sea. Would greater transparency increase the Nihonto market's liquidity, prices, and reduce transaction costs? Absolutely. Are current market participants motivated to do so? Not at all, knowledge is jealously guarded in this field, because it is hard earned. If you know that an item is the best Tokubetsu Juyo piece from a given master, would you be keen on others knowing it? Only if you are on the sell-side. And how hard is it to obtain this knowledge? Well, it is remarkably difficult and requires building a library worth ten's of thousands of dollars of rare and out of print books, hours of study, translation work, and in-hand experience sampling across a wide range of comparable. You're looking at a decade of serious study. What does this information asymmetry mean in the end? It leads to a much slower rate of maturation in the market, the "bid/ask spread" is noisy, and adjusts slowly. From the lowest grade to the highest grade of Nihonto, the price differential is about 100x-500x, which is a complete anomaly when compared to other Art or collectible markets. There are ~2.5 million registered Nihonto with Torokusho, ~1'100 Tokubetsu Juyo, and ~110 Uber Tokuju. If you apply the price-to-rarity mapping of the collectibles or Art market, you will quickly realize that something is completely off. There are economic forces keeping it this way, enabled by the lack of transparency, which benefit, in fine, high-end buyers who spent decades in gathering knowledge, and reputable dealers who have nurtured their reputation and relationships over generations. Markets are markets, in the end, and even the most obfuscating of market practices cannot stop all top items from finding their price. The Kanemitsu really ruffled some feathers. Finally, let us pause for a moment and remember that we have 700 years of collecting praxis in this field. Unlike nostalgia items, which fade in and out of consciousness through a single generation, the Nihonto is a foundational cultural artifact that resonates deeply with the soul an entire civilization. For these reasons, I invite you to be optimistic. But also realistic. It is not an easy field. Best, Hoshi

Hi, Yes, I agree. Gimei or obscure unskilled smith tend to be discarded the same. This is understandable for Art, but it is unjust to history. I would always err on the side of preserving signatures when there is even the slightest doubt that it can be genuine. Here, there is some small degree of doubt. As others have mentioned, it may be some obscure Muromachi-era Kanemitsu. In which case, it is not an artful blade, but a utilitarian object. The flaws, the hastily forged hada, all point towards a sword made with an intention of expedite production. The sugata, however, points to an earlier, or much later era - and combined with the dry O-hada, the uncertain strokes of the signatures, the stroke tagane style which deviates from Muromacho-era Bizen, and its gross misalignment to the shinogi line, form cues that lead me down the path of a deceptive intent. But these are just cues, and the overall picture is murky. If it is genuine, then it is a historical artifact as it may one be one of the few pieces left by by forgotten smith, and this at the end of the day is interesting from a historical perspective. And there it is, a study piece. Good for learning, which in the end is the goal. Best, Hoshi

Hello, These are indeed lovely pics of a magnificent nie-deki. We are lucky to live in a time where high-grade digital cameras can take incredible pictures to immortalize experiences, even behind museum glass. There is a point in life where collecting is not feasible anymore. Inevitably, taste outgrow wallets - and if not - the supply wall inevitably hits. The reality is that after some time, as the mind habituates, one comes to realize that there are only very few swords that truly feel otherworldly, and possess this mysterious grace that makes you question if a human could have made it. This is why collecting experiences is the more sustainable path to growth, and through the skillful use of photography, to preserve them and share them with others is a noble pursuit. Best, Hoshi

Hello, Sorry to hear about your misadventures. It is indeed a "cursed" sword. The inscription is not genuine. Regarding age, difficult to tell. The hada has been acid etched and deviates completely from what you would expect from the Bizen Osafune school. It could be anything - Given the sugata and the hada, my guess is probably Shinshinto during the phase where they experimented with rather unseemly forms of O-hada, but it is not a high confidence call. Most likely, this is a shinshinto blade made to deceive, or later. You see these types of swords frequently, appearing without papers, on sites such as YJP. The gamblers that are fooled by of these swords on YJP, or elsewhere, often then seek out auction houses to flush away their mistakes to the next person. For "Big name" smiths, it's best to work with reputable dealers. Sometimes they'll appear on the NA market. You win a few, you lose a few, such is life. Good luck in your pursuits, Hoshi

Hi, A blessing for the forum would be to ruthlessly filter out the low-effort "I found this on EBAY is it good should I buy it?" These posts are polluting general and nihonto section. Some visitors just throw crap at the wall to see what sticks and abuse the kindness of people here. And these people don't contribute anything of value, not even a gold badge. I would in fact make a section called "identification" and limit posts to 1 sword per visitor, and after that it's a 200$/year. That will keep the noise the down.

Hello, A good question and a chance at learning. Remember that there is a component of intra-smith competition at Juyo, this means that in addition to appreciating the overall quality, one must assess the relative quality. That said, it is possible to design such an exercise without traps (e.g., not taking a chu-saku JINO or mumei shinshinto in koto style). Moreover, ideally, we would have more picture than this: unfortunately our eyes are prone to errors in appraising the nioiguchi from these photos, due to hadori, poor polish, or other visual artifact. It's a game of statistics and it relies on picking archetypes and not outliers for this exercise to be meaningful. All of this to say that the heuristics I'm about to produce only work if there are no traps: Hope this helps, Hoshi