Hoshi

Just trust me. Or, if you are so inclined, I suggest your search the forum, read Darcy's old blog, read Markus's sesko blog, pick up a beginner friendly book, etc. This is a topic that has been re-hashed since the dawn of NMB, and I don't have the mental fortitude to dive into it. It's based on 700 years of sword appreciation. But it is also an arcane topic that takes a fairly long investments of time, in-hand experience, reading, etc, to establish what makes a "good" sword.

Hello, It's more complex than that but it isn't a mystical deep topic either. Multiple structural factors were at play which have a historical basis. I. Near extinction event of expertise during the late muromachi, e.g., Floording of the Yoshii river, war, etc. II. The only major production center left was in Mino, which focused on quantity, lowering production cost and quality III. Smiths from Late Mino, notably Daido, went on to repopulate the craft IV. During the momoyama/early Edo, smith location changed from being industrial villages of entrepreneurs competing against each other towards in house castle smiths with a fixed allowance. This structural change reduced the beneficial effects of competition between smiths/schools. It was not just the centralization of steel production that was at play. - The near universal dominance of Sue-Mino smithing technics that would go on to seed the Shinto period. And we all know that Mino was the lesser of all traditions in terms of quality, but the most effective in terms of output. - The loss of the battlefield feedback loop - The loss of proximity-based competition from independent schools/smiths (e.g., what used to go on in Bizen province) - The change from independent smith entrepreneurs towards house smith retainers with a fixed allowance - A general reduction of demand by the clients for high-end quality swords due to economic and social factors. You have notable exceptions as always, with Yasutsugu and Umetada smiths working directly for the Shogun trying to crack the puzzle of how to make Koto-level swords, then Hankei, etc. Cheers Hoshi

This is not a good sword. Uneven nioiguchi, nie-kizure, and crumped ara-nie. There is a reason for the price.

It's not a named sword, this would be a sword with Go (Name). It's a zaimei Muromachi blade, from a group of makers that have been extremely prolific. These blades are commodities, with the exception of the rare custom ordered ones that generally (but not always) carry the full name of their maker (e.g., Yozozaemon, Gembei...). Nakajima Rai is a bucket attribution for blades that are "almost Rai Kunimitsu" but show less ji-nie, less nie-utsuri, more nagare...etc. It's second tier Rai. Even mumei Rai Kunimitsu is also often a problem, there are just too many of them, with a significant portion being rather uninspiring. That said, a length of 75 cm is rather rare, especially for the Muromachi Sukesada, which could point towards a custom order. Unfortunately, without detailed photos or videos, it's impossible to say more. Perhaps, the less risky strategy is to buy the cheaper 75cm Sukesada, study it and save money.

100% Gimei. If it had any chance of being real, with the high-level deki that is expected of Kagemitsu, it would be valued well beyond $100,000, and then and likely go straight to Tokubetsu Juyo. Here is a genuine signed/dated Kagemitsu nakago for comparison.

Fantastic Rayhan, thank you for your efforts.

Greatly appreciated @Kiril, I read it with interest. Thank you for putting the time and effort to write this piece. I liked the part about Kyushu Nihonto. It's a much overlooked production center, with scarce attention in the literature available in English.

Hello Rayhan, Beware your forays into such arcane knowledge... A good amount has been written by Darcy on this topic over the years, most notably here. It is a good primer before engaging in more advanced discussions. But, to cut the chase - these sessions are called in Japan the "phone book" sessions, because the Zufu volumes are simply enormous owing to the number of blades that pass. The data, however, indicates that it isn't average quality per se that is lower, but that the variance is greater. This is evidenced by a greater proportion of blades from these "phone book" sessions ascending to Tokubetsu Juyo, compared to later, harsher modern sessions. At the other end, we see a lot of JINO (Juyo in name only), blades which today could never make it to Juyo. These sessions also coincide with the rise in popularity of the hobby in Japan. For better or worst, It is my understanding that the trend stops more or less after Kanzan passes away, and the leadership takes a strong policy shift in favor of increasing the baseline-level quality needed for a blade to pass Juyo. In these policy shifts, I believe that the personalities the judges is reflected - Kanzan Sato was the true "man of the people", foremostly concerned about making the hobby accessible, whereas Honma Junji was "Daimyo blade" person, who believed in stricter standards to keep the Juyo designation meaningful. Both approach have their pro's and con's, and it is debatable who, in the end, is right. JINO are obvious arbitrage targets for the western market, which is due to a lack of in-hand experience, and hence relies on ladder theory to build its pricing model of what constitutes a 'good deal' - For this reason, the effect you observe on price is due to a selection bias that puts JINO on the market, blades that often can't be sold to Japanese collectors. How to recognize a JINO? These heuristics are useful: - Unusual length and mumei status (e.g., mumei Yamato Wakizashi...) - Unusual period (e.g., muromachi-era blade...) - Unusual smith (e.g., a smith that never passed Juyo before, or after...) And there is more, of course, but it becomes complicated. As is often the case in Nihonto, there are exceptions to the heuristics above, these are not rules, but merely clues. Always consider the entire picture and beware of shortcuts. EXHIBIT A: A JINO. A mumei, 48cm Shikkake Naginata-Naoshi from a "phone book" session: EXHIBIT B: NOT A JINO. A zaimei Awataguchi Yoshimitsu from one of the "phone book" sessions. The blade is Meibutsu. Best, Hoshi

Hello, From the middle to Kamakura period to the early Nambokucho, great many tanto were made to the highest level of quality and intended for the warrior elite and the aristocracy. The customer base was exigent, and hence the quality was supremely high. The tanto was a specialty of the Awataguchi, Rai, and Soshu schools. Tanto from this period and by these schools rank very highly and command high prices. Here you can see why, this is a tanto attributed to Soshu Yukimitsu. Notice the quality of the jigane, with rich ji-nie, and the soft nioiguchi that covers the ha like snow. In my opinion, the best tanto offered online at the moment. As said earlier, tantos cycle slowly as they are kept by aging collectors to be appreciated late in life. It takes a lot of time and learning to appreciate tanto sincerely, not out of memetic desire. Collecting tanto is somewhat of an older collector's thing, with business done in person, with the great ones rarely ever hitting the public markets. When they do hit the market, the prices are not for the faint of heart. Here is a sublime tanto by Rai Kunimitsu, sold for 240'000$, hammer price. Hope this helps, Hoshi

@Lewis B For me, this is a headscratcher. I do not understand the Kotetsu market frenzy. To put it in perspective, this is high-end Koto grandmaster price territory. Mikazuki minimum bid was 1.5M USD. It was a sealed auction, and it sold. Because it was a sealed auction, we do not know the final price. It was purchased by the Nagoya Token Museum, they made a press release announcement. Overall, this is close to the best outcome possible, as the blade will be made available for appreciation by the broader public, and it remains a "Founder-led" museum that is constantly innovating and seeking to improve its collection. Normally, items at this level do not make it to the open market. Very rarely at the DTI. This is a rare historical anomaly, as it belonged to a well-known American collector. At the ultra top end, respected Japanese dealers do not engage in "price maxing" (with the exception of the occasional crazed Osakian) - but rather, carefully seek out the best client, preferably with the approval of its current owner. Many such items have dibs registered sometimes decades in advance, and word given is faithfully followed in Japan. We often hear that the "sword chooses the collector" - this is only true up to a certain level. At the extreme high-end, it's the collector that chooses the collector, and often decades go by. Discretion, loyalty and respectability take precedence.

Open debate is wonderful indeed. The state of knowledge in nihonto evolves over the years and I am thankful for this. The sources that I have found to be the most transformative in my knowledge: Kanto Hibisho Gokaden series Token Bijutsu Meihin Extracts from Juyo and Tokuju Zufu Darcy’s posts on NMB, his site, blog, and lessons. Plenty of Tanobe sayagaki Especially, the combination of all of these. if future me was speaking to past me, I would recommend skipping a few of the generalist, picture-poor treaties that are cited so often.

Dear Kirill, I read your treaty with attention, and I am glad to say that my initial position of skepticism has been wholly dispelled by your balanced analysis. There a few sections that could be improved, I believe, that would make your treaty "state of the art" recommendation in the western world. In any case, it is a great foundation to build upon. This is a great service to the community, and I applaud you for taking the time to craft it. Best, Hoshi

Hozon or Tokubetsu Hozon, it makes absolutely no difference for me, in my area (Kamakura to Nambokucho blades). - it is relevant for fittings, as it becomes an indicator of importance (as opposed to a mere checklist). - it is relevant for Showa period swords, where TH is rarely awarded. There, I believe it may contain some information about relative Importance. TH is a checklist, and one that keeps on changing. If you learn the checklist, you do not need to get the paper, unless you plan to submit to Juyo. As Ray justly points out, The NBHTK has moved the goalpost with mumei Muromachi blades receiving TH.

Don’t restrict yourself too much when looking for a Kamakura period piece. It can take many years to find a good, healthy Kunimune that has textbook characteristics. the vast majority of them are unfortunately worn down, or compromised in some way. Don’t buy a sword because the maker is a “big name” - chances are, what you’re looking at on the open internet are the compromise pieces that don’t get traction in the Japanese market. The gems go quietly to top clients who have a standing order with dealers. Great swords from this period are disappearing to private museums and foundation. Be patient, and take your time to learn and examine great blades.