The state of the Nihonto Market at the end 2025

[MassiveMoonHeh]

I have been doing some research into the state of the Nihonto Market and have come up with some worrying outcomes. 

 

Price have not moved since Dr Compton's Christie's auction all the back in 1992 (33 years ago) which still holds the record for the highest collective auction sale of $8 million and the highest public auction price for blade at $418,000 for the Ichi signed blade.

 

From my limited research the Christie's Auction in 2002 appears to have been a high water mark for the Nihonto blades market since the year 2000 (note prices did not get back to Dr Compton levels 10 years before that) with prices not getting much above these 2002 price over the next 23 years and in fact in some cases price being sold significantly below these prices.

 

I have pulled out three examples to highlight my findings.

 

Here is an example of a Juyo Bizen Masazane:

In 18 October 2013 one sold at Bonham's Auctions for: $47,500
And another sold on the 26 October 2022 also at Bonham's Auctions for: $44,475

 

A 9 year gap in between sales but another loss another Loss - although this is a lot less than before but a lost of $3,000 over 9 years does not represent incredible value.

 

Finally, here is an example of a Juyo Naoshi Katana:

In 9 November 2011 one listed at Christie's Auctions and sold for: 70,850GBP or 112,862.63USD.
And another sold in 25 March this year at Sotheby's Auctions () for: 101,600 USD

 

This represents a 14 year gap and a $10,800 loss. 

 

Finally here is the price movement of a rather more popular sword smith Rai Kunimitsu again examples of Juyo Katanas:

In 19 June 2002 one sold for at Christie's Auction for:  94,650GBP or 141,738USD. 
More recently a Juyo Rai Kunimitsu Katana sold at Samurai Museum for: $41,590.15
And another Juyo Rai Kunimitsu Katana has been listed at Eirakudo for: 7,800,000JPY or 49,956.13USD.

 

This represents a $100K drop in prices of Juyo Rai Kunimitsu Katanas in the last 23 years. Or a 70.6% loss over this time - probably one of the worst investments in this space.

 

Now I know that many will say this is an extremely small sample size and blade quality and provenance matters, etc. And yes it does but this is a sample lot that tries to compare (as much as it is possible with the difference in blades and quality) apples with apples. All are a specific maker and all are a specific grade (Juyo). There are not many Nihonto Blades of quality that have gone to auction over the last 23 years and this sample lot is what can be extracted from these auctions. 

 

From my findings the market does not appear to have moved and in fact has gone backwards since 2002. With the lack of private sale data, auction data tends to be what big money collectors (not necessarily the most educated collectors) use to price the market and currently this appears to be very concerning. 

 

The Sotheby's Auction of 25 March 2025 (8 months ago) is of particular concern for me here. The prices did not appear to achieve what they wanted on many of the lots and at the end of auction they only had a 56% clearance rate. This kind of sums up the state of the Nihonto market from the data I have found. 

 

I would have thought Nihonto Blades would have sky rocketed like they did in the 2000s under the dot com bubble but they did not. Even the Covid Bubble that caused other asset prices at auctions to sky rocket (I am looking at you Michael Jordan, JK Rowling & JRR Tolkien collectors) the Nihonto market did nothing. Nihonto blades have not even kept up with inflation and in fact as shown above lost ground. A steady 100% per ten years is a pretty acceptable growth rate for most assets but this has not appear to have happened with Nihonto (even though most videos and articles on the most expensive Nihonto blades always multiply the price of these blades by inflation to suggest how much that would be in today's prices - but they are not)? Why is that? What is preventing Nihonto blades, as an asset class, from appreciating like other assets? Is this a case of Japanese Stagflation - following the price of Japanese houses? That is the Japanese economy has gone sideways therefore the Nihonto market has also gone sideways?

 

I am unaware of any database of sales data that exists but if there is I would really appreciate someone pointing me in the right direction. 

 

How do Nihonto Sellers or shops price their blades? Do they simply keep a track of what other shops are listing their blades for? Clearly you can only sell at what people are prepared to pay.

 

I am aware that at the moment there is very much a Japan shop price and a Europe/America shop price (not auction price). That is blades sold outside of Japan are more expensive than those sold in Japan. Which has been pretty common for some time and where a lot of the price growth has been pushed but more recently there appears to be a slow down even here due to the 15% tariffs being introduced in the US meaning that either the seller is taking a 15% hit or the customer in the US is being slugged with a 15% increase in price meaning that even in the private sales market the sale of Nihonto have slowed.

 

Many American sellers are not even shipping the blade outside of Japan until they have a customer, advertising the blade on their website, but not having it in their possession in the US. Makes sense as someone outside of the US may buy it but the US is still without a doubt the biggest market outside of Japan for these blades. This uncertainty in tariffs appears to be affecting the market and prices as a result. I also mention the price disparity between Japanese and foreign markets as the auction houses used here in these examples are foreign auction houses suggesting they should be priced higher than the prices in Japan... but this has not been my finding.

 

I also heard stories of Nihonto sellers actually offering 10% discounts at DTI for the blades in their store as an opening gambit to try gain custom. This seems unusual compared to previous years, no? What did people who attended the DTI observe compared to previous years. Did it show the same interest? Do we know if there was an increase or decrease in sales this year? 

 

Now that we are starting to see gold move up and equities and cryptos slowing down have we missed our opportunity and are Nihonto about to extend their 23 year "winter of discontent" even further with prices about to come down again or am I missing something and are we seeing the early signs of spring in the Nihonto market? With the BoJ increasing rates will we start to see a price increase in Nihonto? I am not an economist but any insight or thoughts here would be valuable.

 

Do we have clear examples of like for like blades selling for multiples of where they sold over the last 23 years? What blades or names have out performed this market? Have we identified any clear trends?

 

I am aware of some outliers where a special sword had a closed auction and apparently sold for millions (although because it was closed we do not actually know) but that appears to be an exception rather than the rule. From what I am found the Nihonto market appears to be broken and I am not sure why or how to fix it - thoughts?

 

I am not an expert in the Nihonto price action and am not trying to be a Debbie Downer, I am simply trying to share my findings with the intent of starting discussion and sharing knowledge. I am also happy to be proven wrong - this helps me grow immensely.

 

Thank you.

[MassiveMoonHeh]

As an aside, does anyone know any professional Japanese sellers or shops that may be willing to have an open an honest discussion on this topic to gain their insight on the market over the last few years? Or failing that what Japanese or foreign Nihonto shops do you consider to be the most accurate for blade quality representation and pricing? Basically who do you think has the best reputation in this industry? Thank you.

Edited Monday at 01:34 AM by MassiveMoonHeh

[lonely panet]

First off, great research and competitive explanations.

 

Yes i too agree with the decline. But with one area of decline another pops up and takes the attention 

 

Like painting, cars etc. Could possibly reflect how wealthy people see whats a safe store of value or possible speculation of investment.

 

I will still continue to buy, study and sell. But not in those ranges

[lonely panet]

21 minutes ago, MassiveMoonHeh said:

As an aside, does anyone know any professional Japanese sellers or shops that may be willing to have an open an honest discussion on this topic to gain their insight on the market over the last few years? Or failing that what Japanese or foreign Nihonto shops do you consider to be the most accurate for blade quality representation and pricing? Basically who do you think has the best reputation in this industry? Thank you.

No where getting into a sticky area as you will get vast opinions. 

 

Both from random peaple to faithful customers.

[eternal_newbie]

1 hour ago, MassiveMoonHeh said:

With the lack of private sale data, auction data tends to be what big money collectors (not necessarily the most educated collectors) use to price the market and currently this appears to be very concerning. 

 

Private sales being the key here. My understanding is that the big Japanese collectors have been consolidating, meaning that more and more of the top quality swords end up in the murky private dealership network in Japan; consequently the blades up for auction in the West are increasingly the leftover swords that weren't good enough to be snagged by a big fish. This is especially true as we reach a point where the number of salvageable WW2 trophies left outside Japan is decreasing rapidly.

 

As recently as the early 2020s the late Darcy Brockbank was freely talking about sword deals "behind the scenes" in the hundreds of thousands, if not millions. There's also the fact that Japanese collectors seem willing, on average, to spend more than Western collectors - he cites a ko-Bizen Tomonari he was unable to sell in Europe and the States, only for a Japanese collector to snap it up for twice what the Western list price had been.

[nulldevice]

A quick note on the Rai Kunimitsu. The Christie's blade was a JuBi Kunimitsu and not just a Juyo Rai Kunimitsu. There are 23 Juyo Bijutsuhin Rai Kunimitsu and almost 200 Juyo Rai Kunimitsu blades (and counting) currently. There won't be more JuBi Kunimitsu blades. 

 

Also, comparing various works of the same smith, one might come across a 10x in value or more at the extremes. An obvious example of this could be a smith who has only a small handful of Juyo or TJ blades to his name and the vast majority sit comfortably forever in Hozon and Tokubetsu Hozon. One might expect that those rare examples of the Juyo or TJ blades will go for much more than other blades of the same smith forever stuck at Tokubetsu Hozon. 

 

At DTI this year, I counted over 7 Shizu blades. Most sat comfortably around the 7-9M JPY range with one caressing the 11M JPY range. Same Juyo papers, different shinsa sessions, but the same attribution nonetheless. However, as I looked at each one, there were clear "winners" and "losers" in my opinion as to which ones I enjoyed more and were "worth" more. I say that as an enthusiastic collector and not as a professional appraiser. Consequently the blade that had the healthiest form, minimal flaws, and best polish (in my opinion) was the 11M example. Maybe that's a "pricing bias" or maybe I was actually holding the objectively "better" blade. 

 

As a final note, comparing sales across a maker can definitely give us a trend for what a rough value for a certain swordsmith's work might be worth but it is not definitive and each blade must be treated individually when assessing is quality. If we find a blade by a maker and the quality is judged as excellent, then we can assume the value will be, on average, in the upper deviations of the bell curve of prices for that smith. That is, assuming you can rightly assess the sword in hand and judge its quality compared to the swords that have sold for higher amounts in previous markets. I can't do this on the fly and certainly not without time to research on my laptop. 

 

 

[MassiveMoonHeh]

35 minutes ago, eternal_newbie said:

 

Private sales being the key here. My understanding is that the big Japanese collectors have been consolidating, meaning that more and more of the top quality swords end up in the murky private dealership network in Japan; consequently the blades up for auction in the West are increasingly the leftover swords that weren't good enough to be snagged by a big fish. This is especially true as we reach a point where the number of salvageable WW2 trophies left outside Japan is decreasing rapidly.

 

As recently as the early 2020s the late Darcy Brockbank was freely talking about sword deals "behind the scenes" in the hundreds of thousands, if not millions. There's also the fact that Japanese collectors seem willing, on average, to spend more than Western collectors - he cites a ko-Bizen Tomonari he was unable to sell in Europe and the States, only for a Japanese collector to snap it up for twice what the Western list price had been.

I have never known a market where private sales sell for more than at auction or public sales. They tend to sell for less and stay private so as to not upset the apple cart for other owners.

 

But Darcy was a legend with great reach in this very opaque and small market. 

 

Perhaps this is the Japanese way... to stay discreet? Just buggers up the optics for the foreign investors who want to see an obvious active market of price appreciation not a discreet market that operates behind closed doors on ifs, buts and maybes.

 

To me, if true, then this is a very clear and obvious reason as to why prices have not openly appreciated.

[eternal_newbie]

Yes, that is very much the Japanese way. Word of mouth, privately brokered trades, favoured dealers and clients. The best blades in Japan will change hands, but never on the open market.

[MassiveMoonHeh]

46 minutes ago, nulldevice said:

A quick note on the Rai Kunimitsu. The Christie's blade was a JuBi Kunimitsu and not just a Juyo Rai Kunimitsu. There are 23 Juyo Bijutsuhin Rai Kunimitsu and almost 200 Juyo Rai Kunimitsu blades (and counting) currently. There won't be more JuBi Kunimitsu blades. 

 

Also, comparing various works of the same smith, one might come across a 10x in value or more at the extremes. An obvious example of this could be a smith who has only a small handful of Juyo or TJ blades to his name and the vast majority sit comfortably forever in Hozon and Tokubetsu Hozon. One might expect that those rare examples of the Juyo or TJ blades will go for much more than other blades of the same smith forever stuck at Tokubetsu Hozon. 

 

At DTI this year, I counted over 7 Shizu blades. Most sat comfortably around the 7-9M JPY range with one caressing the 11M JPY range. Same Juyo papers, different shinsa sessions, but the same attribution nonetheless. However, as I looked at each one, there were clear "winners" and "losers" in my opinion as to which ones I enjoyed more and were "worth" more. I say that as an enthusiastic collector and not as a professional appraiser. Consequently the blade that had the healthiest form, minimal flaws, and best polish (in my opinion) was the 11M example. Maybe that's a "pricing bias" or maybe I was actually holding the objectively "better" blade. 

 

As a final note, comparing sales across a maker can definitely give us a trend for what a rough value for a certain swordsmith's work might be worth but it is not definitive and each blade must be treated individually when assessing is quality. If we find a blade by a maker and the quality is judged as excellent, then we can assume the value will be, on average, in the upper deviations of the bell curve of prices for that smith. That is, assuming you can rightly assess the sword in hand and judge its quality compared to the swords that have sold for higher amounts in previous markets. I can't do this on the fly and certainly not without time to research on my laptop. 

 

 

Absolutely fair and valid comment on the Kunimitsu. Thank you.

 

Wise words all round.

 

There will always be outliers. And that is where perhaps I have an issue with the current grading by NBTHK. 

 

I can see what they have done and it makes sense but as you say there are massive differences even at the same grade. Some are ToJu worthy and others just slipped through.

 

A grading system kind of like Comics would really help. Such that the blade is graded on the quality, current stare and historic significance (provenance) all from 0-10 giving a combined score of 0-10 would make complete sense and would definitely help.

 

If we knew that a blade was grade 9.8 vs a grade 7.6 it would make life a lot easier for the inexperienced collectors and I suspect supercharge the prices on outliers and standard blades as people can understand it a lot better.

 

You don't need a doctorate to understand that a blade grade 9.8 is better than a blade graded 7.6.

 

Any way just thoughts.

Edited Monday at 03:09 AM by MassiveMoonHeh

[PNSSHOGUN]

The results from the big English auction sites can always be taken with a grain of salt when compared to the real market. The relative prices of masterpiece swords haven't really changed much in hundreds of years. 

[MassiveMoonHeh]

2 minutes ago, PNSSHOGUN said:

The results from the big English auction sites can always be taken with a grain of salt when compared to the real market. The relative prices of masterpiece swords haven't really changed much in hundreds of years. 

The real market? As in the Japanese market behind closed doors or the open sale of swords in Japanese shops?

 

And in terms of prices haven't change in 100 years? Are you saying they are the same price they were 100 years ago or they are the same price adjusted to inflation?

[nulldevice]

1 minute ago, MassiveMoonHeh said:

Absolutely fair and valid comment on the Kunimitsu. Thank you.

 

Wise words all round.

 

There will always be outliers. And that is where perhaps I have an issue with the current grading by NBTHK. 

 

I can see what they have done and it makes sense but as you say there are massive differences even at the same grade. Some are ToJu worthy and others just slipped through.

 

A grading system kind of like Comics would really help. Suh that the blade is graded on the quality, current stare and historic significance (provenance) all from 0-10 giving a combined score of 0-10 would make complete sense and would definitely help.

 

If we knew that a blade was grade 9.8 vs a grade 7.6 it would life a lot easier for the inexperienced collectors and I suspect supercharge the prices on outliers and standard blades as people can understand it a lot better.

 

You don't need a doctorate to understand that a bladed grade 9.8 is better than a blade graded 7.6.

 

Any way just thoughts.

 

One needs to look no further than shinsa costs to understand why things are postured the way they are with NBTHK papers. Similarly, with swords IDK that any points grading system would change things because already you'll hear things like "That blade's a JINO blade" or "this shinsa session is really strong" where you'll have sub-values assigned to the values of each shinsa depending on who the judges were, what blades passed, and what the competition for that year was like. 

 

For example how do you grade a newly found, newly discovered for the first time ever Rai Kuniyoshi that is deemed shoshin? Is it an auto 9.8 gem mint because its the only existent blade of this smith and a huge historical discovery for the Rai school roots? What if its a little tired but signed? Still a 9.8? I don't know that the NBTHK could provide some level of objective criteria on which all blades could be judged unanimously. There is nuance within traditions, within schools, and within smiths individually and as more blades are submitted and discovered, the scale on which we must grade all future discoveries also changes. Hence the bucket approach naturally also fits (if not for the income for the NBTHK with the bucket system)

[MassiveMoonHeh]

2 minutes ago, nulldevice said:

 

One needs to look no further than shinsa costs to understand why things are postured the way they are with NBTHK papers. Similarly, with swords IDK that any points grading system would change things because already you'll hear things like "That blade's a JINO blade" or "this shinsa session is really strong" where you'll have sub-values assigned to the values of each shinsa depending on who the judges were, what blades passed, and what the competition for that year was like. 

 

For example how do you grade a newly found, newly discovered for the first time ever Rai Kuniyoshi that is deemed shoshin? Is it an auto 9.8 gem mint because its the only existent blade of this smith and a huge historical discovery for the Rai school roots? What if its a little tired but signed? Still a 9.8? I don't know that the NBTHK could provide some level of objective criteria on which all blades could be judged unanimously. There is nuance within traditions, within schools, and within smiths individually and as more blades are submitted and discovered, the scale on which we must grade all future discoveries also changes. Hence the bucket approach naturally also fits (if not for the income for the NBTHK with the bucket system)

I like computers, programming & databases. There is always a way of itemising and listing any aspect of anything. 

 

Obviously it is how we apply these itemised bits to an algorithm but it is possible. 

 

Something like blades a lot of the work is already done since the Edo period and the graders like the family Hon'ami. NBTHK have trained experts who use these same criteria (some are better than others). An origami from Kōetsu for a Masamune carries some weight. Later origamis perhaps not so much. 

 

Issues come in around humans and making money but getting an objective result I believe is possible. If we can get a consensus on what is worth grading and program it into an algorithm we will beable to grade an sword 0-10.

 

AI will also help massively here going forward.

 

I know massively off topic. Love spit balling.

 

Thank you.

[eternal_newbie]

2 minutes ago, MassiveMoonHeh said:

AI will also help massively here going forward.

Not for a while yet, though. Refer to this topic I posted recently, in which AI appears to have hallucinated an entire upper-grade line of Soshu smiths
 

 

[MassiveMoonHeh]

Just now, eternal_newbie said:

Not for a while yet, though. Refer to this topic I posted recently, in which AI appears to have hallucinated an entire upper-grade line of Soshu smiths
 

 

💯

[waljamada]

In 2025 from my perspective it was a better time to be a buyer than seller.  Even with me feeling that way I've been reluctant to invest too much because I worry the Nihonto market, while actually rather stable in the long run, will remain somewhat stagnant even into the future. 

 

Nihonto has such a steep learning curve, lack of tradesmen so everything is so expensive to procure (just to name a few: polishing is the biggest one, re-silver foil something, repair saya, have shirasaya made, have tsuka made or repaired, have habaki made or repaired etc...and each blade being unique in sizes makes it hard, if not impossible, to standardize anything), a market with forgery landmines, blade certification being so slow and essentially only in Japan is also a rather big wall for the market....and I could go on but basically because of Nihonto's unique facets its a really hard market to develop steady growth in and bring in new buyers that stick with it and dont get too burned along the way to burn out.   

 

Out of all my "collections" my returns when selling are always (by a pretty large margin)  the smallest with Nihonto and I feel like I always risk at best selling for what I paid or at worst even less.  In the end though...even with all that said...I personally think my Nihonto collection is my favorite thing I collect.  It just seemingly wont help me retire one day like my other collections will.

 

I mention these things because a healthy market would want today's gunto buyers to become future Juyo buyers and the more blocks and burns in a market the more buyers will fade out before getting to Juyo.  Nihonto is a tough field and not for the faint of heart and wallet which will always play a role in the market and it's future capabilities.

[Brian]

Don't forget what I consider to be a huge influence on the above: The internet and availability of a huge number of swords from a wide variety of sellers.
In the past, you heard about swords being available on auction, or you traveled to a seller. You had to fight other buyers for a decent sword as auctions and sales were the primary source of Nihonto.
Now you just log onto the internet, and can choose from thousands of swords. Sellers aren't guaranteed a captive market. They need to be competitive and aattractive to buyers.
The more the internet makes good stuff available to a wide audience, the more prices will have to adjust to lure the customers. It's no longer "Buy that sword because I don't know when a better one will come along"
Now it's "Let me compare 10 of the best examples available on the net and decide which interest me"
I think in a market like that, it's only natural that prices remain competitive and sellers are under pressure.

[Matsunoki]

All markets have to operate in the pertaining real world circumstances and the past is usually not a guide to the future…..quite the opposite in fact.

So we look at our world and what do we see…..serious actual conflicts, serious potential conflicts, serious economic problems/conflicts/extremes, incompetence of governments etc etc

In times such as this will Japanese swords be viewed as an economic safe haven? This is a seriously obscure small market that as said above requires years and years of learning to become even vaguely knowledgeable. 
Why is gold soaring?

What are todays embryonic collectors likely to jump into?

The past will not decide what happens, we need to look ahead, not back. 

Hmmmm…..

 

[Hoshi]

Hi Brett, 

 

I appreciate the effort you've put into this. Let me offer some insights.

 

First, it's important to understand the structural difference of the markets you are comparing. 

 

Western collectible markets strive to minimize knowledge asymmetries and maximize price transparency, which in turns increases market activity, liquidity, and trust. You see this with numismatic, comics, Tolkien and Harry Potter, fine watches, Baseball cards, etc. These objects are commodities: aside from an objectively-gradable condition, they do not differ for a specific item type. A black lotus is a black lotus, minus the crooked corner. Furthermore, they are extensively catalogued, and their their rarity is a matter of common-knowledge for market participants. This legibility combined with immediate liquidity provides reassurance to buyers. 

 

When COVID hit, and enthusiasts in their 40's with disposable income are suddenly carried by nostalgia, the collectible market's inherent transparency gives an easy way to park money in confidence. 

 

In other words, collectibles are commodities, and commodities due to their transparency are friendly to new market participants. 

 

Nihonto, on the other hand, are not commodities, and they follow the opposite market structure. Knowledge asymmetry is sky high and price transparency is almost non-existent. The items themselves are not legible. You simply do not know what you get, and it is exceedingly difficult to situate it within the broader spectrum of rarity or desirability. This lack of transparency increases transaction costs and risks for new market participants. You can't go wrong buying a graded Black Lotus, but at a similar price point, you can be very, very wrong buying a Juyo mumei Rai Kunimitsu if you use Aoi's past prices alone as your guiding function. If you go into Nihonto with a comic book collecting mindset, you will commit costly mistakes. 

 

What does the Compton Collection have in common with the magnificent Kanemitsu tachi that sold for over 200 million yen? What would the top items sold during the legendary "Museum of Sword Fittings" auction sell for today? Now, we are talking about comparable. I will leave it to you as an intellectual exercise to disentangle the structural difference from the items you've been following that have cycled through other auction houses which form the foundation of your analysis on price decline. Add to this a cultural layer that differs from our own in terms of values (Japan vs the West) - as well as different tax policies that create their own class of structural incentives, and you will begin to understand that the foundational data you use to support your analysis only translates to a specific class of items. 

 

As others have wisely pointed out, the vast majority of Nihonto transactions that would matter for such an analysis simply go unrecorded, and are carried out between trusted parties in total secrecy. There, million $+ exchanges are not uncommon. The more precious and rare the item, the greater the shroud of secrecy.

 

So, you are left with the tip of the iceberg, and doesn't translate to the vast mass hidden under the sea. 

 

Would greater transparency increase the Nihonto market's liquidity, prices, and reduce transaction costs? Absolutely. Are current market participants motivated to do so? Not at all, knowledge is jealously guarded in this field, because it is hard earned. If you know that an item is the best Tokubetsu Juyo piece from a given master, would you be keen on others knowing it? Only if you are on the sell-side. And how hard is it to obtain this knowledge? Well, it is remarkably difficult and requires building a library worth ten's of thousands of dollars of rare and out of print books, hours of study, translation work, and in-hand experience sampling across a wide range of comparable. You're looking at a decade of serious study. 

 

What does this information asymmetry mean in the end? It leads to a much slower rate of maturation in the market, the "bid/ask spread" is noisy, and adjusts slowly. From the lowest grade to the highest grade of Nihonto, the price differential is about 100x-500x, which is a complete anomaly when compared to other Art or collectible markets. There are ~2.5 million registered Nihonto with Torokusho, ~1'100 Tokubetsu Juyo, and ~110 Uber Tokuju. If you apply the price-to-rarity mapping of the collectibles or Art market, you will quickly realize that something is completely off. There are economic forces keeping it this way, enabled by the lack of transparency, which benefit, in fine, high-end buyers who spent decades in gathering knowledge, and reputable dealers who have nurtured their reputation and relationships over generations. Markets are markets, in the end, and even the most obfuscating of market practices cannot stop all top items from finding their price. The Kanemitsu really ruffled some feathers. 

 

Finally, let us pause for a moment and remember that we have 700 years of collecting praxis in this field. Unlike nostalgia items, which fade in and out of consciousness through a single generation, the Nihonto is a foundational cultural artifact that resonates deeply with the soul an entire civilization. 

 

For these reasons, I invite you to be optimistic. 

 

But also realistic.

 

It is not an easy field. 

 

Best,

 

Hoshi

 

Edited Monday at 09:05 AM by Hoshi

[Matsunoki]

Lots of impressive talk about high end rare and expensive swords but they represent only a numerically very small part of the far wider market. 
Are we talking about the whole market or a very small exclusive enclave? ….and do the same factors exist across the wider market?

….. and which sectors should most of us be concerned with?

The UK has been awash with swords in auctions recently with very poor mixed results……with more still to come. 
Why is this?

 

 

 

 

[MassiveMoonHeh]

3 hours ago, Hoshi said:

Hi Brett, 

 

I appreciate the effort you've put into this. Let me offer some insights.

 

First, it's important to understand the structural difference of the markets you are comparing. 

 

Western collectible markets strive to minimize knowledge asymmetries and maximize price transparency, which in turns increases market activity, liquidity, and trust. You see this with numismatic, comics, Tolkien and Harry Potter, fine watches, Baseball cards, etc. These objects are commodities: aside from an objectively-gradable condition, they do not differ for a specific item type. A black lotus is a black lotus, minus the crooked corner. Furthermore, they are extensively catalogued, and their their rarity is a matter of common-knowledge for market participants. This legibility combined with immediate liquidity provides reassurance to buyers. 

 

When COVID hit, and enthusiasts in their 40's with disposable income are suddenly carried by nostalgia, the collectible market's inherent transparency gives an easy way to park money in confidence. 

 

In other words, collectibles are commodities, and commodities due to their transparency are friendly to new market participants. 

 

Nihonto, on the other hand, are not commodities, and they follow the opposite market structure. Knowledge asymmetry is sky high and price transparency is almost non-existent. The items themselves are not legible. You simply do not know what you get, and it is exceedingly difficult to situate it within the broader spectrum of rarity or desirability. This lack of transparency increases transaction costs and risks for new market participants. You can't go wrong buying a graded Black Lotus, but at a similar price point, you can be very, very wrong buying a Juyo mumei Rai Kunimitsu if you use Aoi's past prices alone as your guiding function. If you go into Nihonto with a comic book collecting mindset, you will commit costly mistakes. 

 

What does the Compton Collection have in common with the magnificent Kanemitsu tachi that sold for over 200 million yen? What would the top items sold during the legendary "Museum of Sword Fittings" auction sell for today? Now, we are talking about comparable. I will leave it to you as an intellectual exercise to disentangle the structural difference from the items you've been following that have cycled through other auction houses which form the foundation of your analysis on price decline. Add to this a cultural layer that differs from our own in terms of values (Japan vs the West) - as well as different tax policies that create their own class of structural incentives, and you will begin to understand that the foundational data you use to support your analysis only translates to a specific class of items. 

 

As others have wisely pointed out, the vast majority of Nihonto transactions that would matter for such an analysis simply go unrecorded, and are carried out between trusted parties in total secrecy. There, million $+ exchanges are not uncommon. The more precious and rare the item, the greater the shroud of secrecy.

 

So, you are left with the tip of the iceberg, and doesn't translate to the vast mass hidden under the sea. 

 

Would greater transparency increase the Nihonto market's liquidity, prices, and reduce transaction costs? Absolutely. Are current market participants motivated to do so? Not at all, knowledge is jealously guarded in this field, because it is hard earned. If you know that an item is the best Tokubetsu Juyo piece from a given master, would you be keen on others knowing it? Only if you are on the sell-side. And how hard is it to obtain this knowledge? Well, it is remarkably difficult and requires building a library worth ten's of thousands of dollars of rare and out of print books, hours of study, translation work, and in-hand experience sampling across a wide range of comparable. You're looking at a decade of serious study. 

 

What does this information asymmetry mean in the end? It leads to a much slower rate of maturation in the market, the "bid/ask spread" is noisy, and adjusts slowly. From the lowest grade to the highest grade of Nihonto, the price differential is about 100x-500x, which is a complete anomaly when compared to other Art or collectible markets. There are ~2.5 million registered Nihonto with Torokusho, ~1'100 Tokubetsu Juyo, and ~110 Uber Tokuju. If you apply the price-to-rarity mapping of the collectibles or Art market, you will quickly realize that something is completely off. There are economic forces keeping it this way, enabled by the lack of transparency, which benefit, in fine, high-end buyers who spent decades in gathering knowledge, and reputable dealers who have nurtured their reputation and relationships over generations. Markets are markets, in the end, and even the most obfuscating of market practices cannot stop all top items from finding their price. The Kanemitsu really ruffled some feathers. 

 

Finally, let us pause for a moment and remember that we have 700 years of collecting praxis in this field. Unlike nostalgia items, which fade in and out of consciousness through a single generation, the Nihonto is a foundational cultural artifact that resonates deeply with the soul an entire civilization. 

 

For these reasons, I invite you to be optimistic. 

 

But also realistic.

 

It is not an easy field. 

 

Best,

 

Hoshi

 

 

Whilst I hear stories of private sales being the way things work with Nihonto blades and it may be, I know for damn sure that an open market pushes prices a lot higher than closed private sales. I agree with Christine's sentiment here 100%... this market needs more transparency. It is the only way we see prices appreciate and start to see these incredibly historic and culturally important pieces start to get the respect they deserve.

 

I want to see the highest prices not be rumoured guesstimates that some Museum in Japan has paid but I want to see a healthy market where private collectors across the world push to have their favourite blade knowing that there is someone else that wants that blade as badly or even more. Until this happens we are stuck in a negative feedback loop that just perpetuates sideways/ downward action.

 

As a community we should demand openness and transparency at every level. From NBTHK and their database of swords through to shops and auction houses. Transparency benefits everyone. We will see this space grow, NBTHK will make more money, collectors will see some returns on their favourite pieces and Nihonto will finally join the realm of valuable art comparable in price to art works from China, Europe and the Americas.

 

Transparency is key.

Edited Monday at 01:01 PM by MassiveMoonHeh

[Matsunoki]

36 minutes ago, MassiveMoonHeh said:

I know for damn sure that an open market pushes prices a lot higher than closed private sales.

I don’t want an argument but this is not true when dealing with clients that are perfectly happy and well prepared to pay a premium for exclusive  private buying opportunities. Also many dealers do not wish it known that they sold “sword X” to “customer Y” for “$Z”

Not everyone wants exposure to the limelight. It’s the same in any high value commodity market. The art market operates in a very similar way.

Imagine you are a dealer with many high net worth private clients…….the problems that could occur when your clients find out what you have sold to their rivals etc. You stand to lose your best customers. 
 

47 minutes ago, MassiveMoonHeh said:

Transparency is key.

Transparency can work negatively as well as positively……it can depress a market if the “prices” start to fall  - because there is no guarantee that sword prices will rise especially in this world. We have seen a few very decent collections hit the open market in the last year or two with pretty gruesome results……high percentage of unsold….likely caused by vendors expectations. 
 

And, what effects of age demographics will we see……will younger collectors be interested (or able) when these high value swords come onto an open market? Or will they prefer a new Porsche? It’s a complex set of circumstances.

 

 

 

[eternal_newbie]

And to add to Colin's points above... we, the collectors outside of Japan, have no leverage to effect any real changes and would likely wind up on several blacklists if we tried. Work with the world you've got, not the world you'd like.

[MassiveMoonHeh]

1 hour ago, Matsunoki said:

it can depress a market if the “prices” start to fall  

I am not keen on starting an argument either - I hope we can chat and debate. In terms of transparency depressing a market... I am not sure how much more depressed the Nihonto Market can get... 33 years of not breaking the All Time High seems pretty depressed, no?

 

In a small market one needs to keep your good customers happy because you have not other options, lose them and you lose your business. This unfortunately is a double edged sword as it also leads to private sales and stagnant price action where the market does not grow.

[MassiveMoonHeh]

46 minutes ago, eternal_newbie said:

And to add to Colin's points above... we, the collectors outside of Japan, have no leverage to effect any real changes and would likely wind up on several blacklists if we tried. Work with the world you've got, not the world you'd like.

I wonder if this is what Nobunaga thought when he was born into the not very influential nor powerful Oda clan? I jest and appreciate the sentiment, as concerning as this sentiment is. I am simply trying to find ways to improve the Nihonto's lot - it deserves better. I think everyone in this space wants that - Japanese & foreigner.

[Lewis B]

Personally I buy to collect and study not as an investment vehicle to diversify my portfolio. There has been way too much speculation in other collecting arenas eg whisky, fine art, watches etc that all it achieves is to price out the little guy (read enthusiast). I’m all for downward adjustments as it warns off the investor types who have no interest in the commodity only that it makes a profit on resale. 

[Matsunoki]

39 minutes ago, MassiveMoonHeh said:

- I hope we can chat and debate.

Agreed!

 

For any market to exist or to survive or to grow there is really only one critical factor……demand.

 

There must be a demand for that product and that demand can vary drastically especially at different price points and in the case of swords, also geographically.

 

So, where is the current demand for swords? Increasing, static or declining and at what price points?

What current factors drive that demand?….and are they likely to change…and how, and why?

Demand can be encouraged and manipulated to some extent but ultimately people must want it…….whatever “it” is.

 

Right  now the transparency that does exist in the “open market” most easily visible via auctions (and even sales on this forum) would suggest the market is over supplied, thus depressed - but as usual there are exceptions. Anything sensibly priced stands a chance, anything over valued stands little chance. Better quality sensibly priced is more likely to sell.
 

What happens behind closed doors is anyone’s guess and is likely to remain so. 
 

As Brian has said, the internet has had a drastic impact on the sword market. It has increased product choice and visibility and has thus increased competition between dealers. It has enabled buyers to easily access far more of the “product” than ever before, but has not necessarily increased demand. Static demand coupled with over supply is bad news. Reducing demand coupled with over supply is extremely bad news for market performance.

It would be great to have some dealer input…….

 

 

 

[Jussi Ekholm]

I consider myself as a sword researcher with 0 financial interest.

 

Now will you still believe that line if I will tell that I have 575 pages of sword prices, and have tracked down interesting swords for over 10 years...  Here is a link to an old version that I shared to NMB I think almost 7 years ago: 

After posting that I had some interesting discussions with few people, back then I didn't understand the bigger picture too well but I try to think I have learned something in 7 years. I had some good ones with Darcy and while we sometimes butted heads a bit as we had maybe a bit different view of the some things, now with more experience under my belt I've come to realize that the actual historical prices are pretty unrelevant. As I go through all of my regular sites every week, I just type down the price down as a habit as I had done it for so many years. Main point for myself is just tracking down the items themselves for my database. Jūyō items are actually quite easy to track down when they pop up as I have the basic data.

 

One thing is that different dealers will sell the same item for different prices and it is just normal in life. Some can squeeze in larger profit (and will have to do it for business) while some are satisfied with smaller profit. I was just commenting last month to a smaller Japanese dealer that they have excellent prices, their answer was of course logical that they are online only, so they don't have any additional costs. Compare that to some of the top dealers, showroom in Ginza with staff etc.

 

I feel that the only relevant thing is the current price of the item and how comfortable you are with it. Items are one of a kind items and if you are happy with the price I think that is the only thing that matters. Of course every week as I browse through all of the interesting new items that dealers and sites in my list have put out, I do keep immidiately thinking how something feels overpriced or something is actually feeling like a very good deal.

 

I am actually super happy that Tōken World at Nagoya won the Mikazuki Kanemitsu, now I can see it some year when I visit Nagoya. For me that is the most important thing that people can actually see the items in museums. Had some top tier private collector won the item, most people would never had the chance to see the sword. I won't say anything about the big auction houses, just that I am extremely against them. I will much rather support Japanese and International dealers and would even pay premium for them for the same item rather than deal with extremely greedy auction houses. Sword dealers have a passion for this which auction houses lack.

[Lexvdjagt]

A very interesting thread, 

 

This discussion is wonderful and insightful. Having said that, there are some points I disagree on.

 

I personally will not take auction results from auctioneers like Christie’s, Sothebys (or other high end auction houses), as a market parameter. These auctions are in many cases outliers, and one auction or auction house is to me not a proper market indicator.

 

Having been active as a dealer in the antique market when I started at 14 has taught me A lot about market decline and rise. I have sold ancient Roman and Greek coinage ever since I was 14. The coin market is very transparent, you’ll always be able to check the market price for a particular coin. I have a very wide range of databases that I use to figure out the price increase or decline of certain coins (which overall has seen an uphill increase). But from the perspective of a coin dealer this transparency is also a curse, my profits are low (because anyone can find out where they can get it from my source), and I focus on selling in quantity to make a living.
 

 

This cannot be said about Nihonto. When I started buying Nihonto, I desperately wanted to gain intimate knowledge of the market and trends within the market. I have never been rich so I’ve always focused on the Hozon-Tokubetsu Hozon range. The market is completely dependant on location and clients, it’s a whole different game. There is no standard metric to compare your swords to. The Japanese market is very different depending on who you know or where you can get into (for example dealer auctions).

 

Dealers can really truly ask whatever they want, if they have a client willing to pay. 
 

There is of course some basic understanding of price, but it can wildly differ. 
 

Overall in Japan when I talk to dealers, some can be quite optimistic. Looking to branch out more and reach more clients, and working to get young people interested in Nihonto.

 

I don’t worry as much, at least not at my collecting price point.

 

Greetings,

Lex

[Sebuh]

17 hours ago, MassiveMoonHeh said:

 

 

The Sotheby's Auction of 25 March 2025 (8 months ago) is of particular concern for me here. The prices did not appear to achieve what they wanted on many of the lots and at the end of auction they only had a 56% clearance rate. This kind of sums up the state of the Nihonto market from the data I have found. 

 

 

This is a wonderful thread, very, very informative. I visited the Sothebys pre sale as it was in New York, they had only one blade on display though I was unsure of which it was. The rest of the blades were locked up in glass containers within their shirasaya, and koshirae. If any of you want photos I can try to send them. Though I have to warn my photo of the one blade, is not the best.

All of the swords had no markers, no information about them. They put no real effort in the display I feel, meanwhile other artworks had through estimates, the painter, and the time period. All the swords had none, even the sword on display didn't have the smiths name. Very underwhelming