The Economics of Sword Collecting

[simonjbinks]

Dear Koichi-San,

 

Thank you for your comments and I'm sorry for me delay getting back to you. I lot of things taking up my time.

 

I missed out on the Sanemori. I was sure I had it but could not wait up any longer for the auction to complete. I set the eBay account on automatic to outbid anybody, so I thought. I missed by £15.

 

I'm at the bottom of the world in Australia, the Southern most point of the mainland, so when it's daytime in the major parts of the world, it's the middle of the night here.

 

One thing I would like to ask your opinion on, if I may.

 

Swords are going so cheaply at the moment. They seemed to drop after the sale of the Compton Collection in 1991, as I believe that so many great swords saw the light of day, that those in it just for the money saw most of what they were looking for go out the door at very high prices.

 

But the International recession has obviously played a big part.

 

The question is, do you believe the sword market will bounce back when the economy stabilises, as it must?

 

I have a chance to get a good Go-Dai Soshu Ju Tsunahiro katana for Au $5000.00. I had a Sho-Dai Tsunehiro tanto in excellent mounts that I sold to a dealer for $5000 in 1986.

 

I've been buying swords again as I thought it a good time to buy, and it is, but if dealers are selling items like a honto Go-Dai Tsunehiro katana with Horimono for $5,000.00, I'm wondering if it will ever bounce back to what it used to be. Which would be good for collectors but bad for those who have chosen Japanese swords as their choice of Superannuation instead of the traditional funds.

 

I would very much like to hear your opinion on this.

 

And thank you once more for you help with the 'Sanemori'. I didn't think it to be a genuine signature either, as eluded in my post, but it was an outstanding sword in new polish, displaying some exceptional work in the hamon and hada. But I missed it, so be it.

 

With Thanks,

 

Simon

[Nobody]

The question is, do you believe the sword market will bounce back when the economy stabilises, as it must?

My knowledge of economics is very limited. But anyway, I am not so interested in the price fluctuation of nihonto market, because basically I buy only blades which I want to keep forever (within my budget ).

[simonjbinks]

Dear Koichi-San,

 

So do I but I've fallen on hard times since a car accident in 1995. I used to be a rock star and earned a lot of money, had many fine swords with no intention to sell, but unless I can get my career up again (at 53!!), I have to be wiser with my money.

 

Right now I'm thinking, would I put my money in a super fund or in Japanese swords, which I can enjoy as the appreciate (if they appreciate)? While I hope to get my career going again, they are there as a back up.

 

But then again, I don't want to go through the pain (as in limitations, dementia, etc; I'm still fit and healthy at 53) of old age AND having to sell off prized, much loved items of a labour of love.

 

I just put up another mei that has me confused. It's Morimitsu but I can't read the first few kanji. I'm about to put up the date as well, which looks to me to be Kaei something something san gatsu, which would make it Sho Dai. There is an exact same signature on page 537 of Koto Hen, but I can find no mach in Hawley for the precise mei and all my other books are in storage. It looks to be a very fine wakazashi, but I don't know if it's a match for Sho-Dai Bizen Morimitsu.

 

I have never been into swords for the money. In fact, I'm completely hopeless with money. Despite having earned two fortunes in my life, I have very little left. So I have to be realistic and intelligent with my financial choices.

 

Thanks Koichi-San.

 

Simon

[Jacques D.]

Hi

 

The first three kanji read Shurinosuke 修理亮

[simonjbinks]

Thanks Jacques.

 

I did finally work it out with Koichi's help. This should make this THE Ni-Dai Bizen Morimitsu, the big one.

 

I found it on eBay but Koichi-San directed me to the same sword being sold on this site for $1500. An absurdly low sum for such a smith. Then we have a local dealer selling a Go-Dai Sashu Ju Tsunehiro katana for $5,000.00.

 

I'd be really interested in the general opinion. Is the sword market going to pick up or is it the law of diminishing returns?

 

For collectors such as we, its like being a child in a toyshop with dad's Amex card, but my comments on retirement and investments are poignant.

 

Any opinion would be welcomed.

 

As would an opinion as to the verification of this mei. The seller seems convinced, and this seems a site of honest, helpful people.

 

With Thanks

 

Simon Binks

[Jacques D.]

Hi,

 

This should make this THE Ni-Dai Bizen Morimitsu, the big one.

 

I don't think so, the date don't match Shurinosuke worked from Oei (1394/1428) to Eikyo (1429/1441) your blade is dated from Koei (1342/1345)

[Nobody]

Hi,

 

This should make this THE Ni-Dai Bizen Morimitsu, the big one.

 

I don't think so, the date don't match Shurinosuke worked from Oei (1394/1428) to Eikyo (1429/1441) your blade is dated from Koei (1342/1345)

The inscribed date looks to be 應永拾年二(or 三?)月日 (Oei 10-nen 2(or 3?)-gatsu-hi).

[Jacques D.]

Hi,

 

I think you are right Moriyama san, i misread the first kanji

 

An example from Fujishiro :

 

[simonjbinks]

Dear Jacques/Moriyama-San,

 

It is very hard to pick O-ei from Ei-kyo from Ko-ei, it's great to get a Japanese perspective on this.

 

O-ei + 13 puts this sword at 1407, right in the middle of Shuri-no-Suke's career.

 

The signature looks different to examples I have, but each looks different to the other anyway. We all get paranoid with big signatures. We hope them to be correct, but expect them not to be.

 

This mei seems to fit the nakago in terms of wear and patina. The left side of Mori shows wear that first had me confused, as the left stroke doesn't seem to be there.

 

But blowing up the photo, I can see it worn away, consistent with what one would expect of a sword that age.

 

Thanks guys.

 

Simon

[moss]

Gidday Simon and all,

 

You seem to have the translation in very capable hands,the cumulative knowledge on this board is massive.

You are obviously passionate after reading other posts regarding your personal views on gunto mounts ,I question why you seem to be a little concerned if the investment value of swords will continue upward.

We all started in this interest in one way or another and in the beginning for most, it would have been the opposite to making financial gain.

This not withstanding I can understand you like all, are constrained by the thought, should I ,shouldn't I but if you are serious about protecting your "investment" should you not encourage new and younger followers to the ranks...for they will be some of the people who are potential buyers as they move on.

Gunto collectors do go on to higher and better.

Swords are like everything in the world,they come in and out of favour and flavour but I defy you to enjoy a share certificate or bank bond to the same degree.

I sincerely hope you fulfill your financial dreams.

I trust I am not out of line or antagonistic ,I expect to be castigated by moderators if I am,my views are only aimed to provoke thought.

P.S I'll still buy you a XXXX when you're in Brizzy.

 

Cheers Moss

[simonjbinks]

Dear Moss,

 

Funny, a guy named Ian Moss and I were voted by Rolling Stone as the best guitarists in the country.

 

I'm not quite sure what you're saying. I have a deep passion for Japanese swords but limited funds at the moment. Having earned two fortunes in my life so far, a car accident in 1995 wiped me out financially, including all of my swords.

 

I made a remarkable recovery from my accident but I have to be realistic, to rejoin the rock music world as a solo artist (I was previously a lead guitarist and song writer) at the age of 53 is a tall order. Impossible, most would say. But they all said that when I took up guitar in the final year of grammar school and pronounced that I was going to be the best guitarist in the country.

 

I'm trying to be financially responsible. I am so tempted to buy this Morimitsu and the Soshu Ju Tsunahiro katana, and could, but then there's the rest of my life to consider.

 

I am in two minds about having Japanese swords as superannuation. True, much more enjoyable in the mean time than super funds, but how would I feel when and I am old and declining to see them all go to pay for perfunctory matters such as a roof over my head and food in my mouth.

 

So the issue of whether swords follow the law of diminishing returns or just a passing faze of the economy, is a significant one for me at this point in my life.

 

UNLESS, I get my career back up and running, in which case I will be wall to wall with swords and vintage guitars again but this time, invest in something safe as well. I am also suing for the accident. I was earning around $250-300,000 pa before the accident, so the payout should be significant. SHOULD. I have no faith in the legal system.

 

I hope that answers your question.

 

With Thanks,

 

Simon

[moss]

Simon,

that" reprobate "Ian Moss comes from a good long lineage of convict stock like myself.. 1886 The Sarah.

Doubt I am related to him and probably I should not call him a reprobate ,I am just looking inwards to my past.

I know who you are and your status as a muso.

I'm off topic but when you started out in the music game you were not worried about being old and financially responsible, why change now?

You followed your gut and passion.

To answer your question on what I was saying ,do like the muso's do encourage the young ones coming up leave the rest to fate.

As you say 2 fortunes have passed through your hands and you need to make sure.

Mate there is nothing sure ,do what you need to do but encourage others to follow.

 

Cheers

 

Moss

[drbvac]

Retirement planning and swords or any other collectible for that matter really don't go together, other than to have something you love when you do finally cease work. I have been at this for 40 years with various edged weapons and it always seems any appreciable change in prices always take quite a long time and only for really top of the line collectibles. There is usually a 30-50 % mark up on collectibles when sold so in order to make any real money you have to hold it long enough for the market demand to come up to the sellers price and then wait for another time for it to increase!

 

What is even more upsetting at least to me is none of my 4 children is even remotely interested in the blades so if I pass away you folks may be able to get quite a bargain as there will be a fire sale on Nihonto as they will get them for nothing and anything is a bonus.

 

That said I may have to sell them when I get old and stunned and it may very well be the same deal unless you can wait long enough to get the price you want!

[sanjuro]

Simon.

 

I have a degree in economics...... Believe me when I say that Collecting Nihonto and Superannuation do not sit well together. There are more predictably positive and self perpetuating ways of making money, but they dont give you the pleasure of Nihonto.

Nihonto are merely a large hole in your common sense. You can justify ownership anyway that makes you comfortable, but you cannot convince an accountant.

Now..... an economist is a glass half full kinda guy compared to an accountant. So I always look on the positive projection side. Then again, I collect Nihonto, which makes my opinion somewhat biased. Also I am an Australian, so that makes me an optimist.

 

What made you pick up a guitar when common sense dictated you get a sensible job?

Follow the guy that did that. You aint old dude..... There are songs yet to be sung.

[Carlo Giuseppe Tacchini]

Nihonto are merely a large hole in your common sense.

 

Keith. I owe you a good laugh. I take note of this for future use.

[simonjbinks]

It's complex. Let's merely say that I am attempting to do something I really can't afford now; well can, but can't justify. Thank god my wife has left me or I'd never hear the end of it.

 

Or maybe I should have listened more.

 

I seem to have luck with swords. There is an old Samurai saying: "The Samurai doesn't find the sword, the sword finds the Samurai".

 

Whilst I don't profess to be a Samurai, I seem to have great luck in finding good blades, but lost them all due to trusting the wrong people and a few stupid mistakes. And a car accident.

 

Without getting too existential, my luck seems to had left me when I sold my swords, but that can't be a reason in a rational world.

 

I just need to get one good sword but as they are so cheap now, I am justifying it by considering that I'd much rather have my money invested in swords than a super fund. But for this to work, swords have to appreciate again.

 

Then we get to the problem of angst in having to sell them in my declining years if I don't get my career back up and running, but that is another apple.

 

Thanks for the advice guys. Anyone have a good Satsuma katana they want to get rid of?

 

With Thanks,

 

Simon

[Gabriel L]

If you can't justify it, don't buy it. I have been interested in arms & armour for over 12 years now and in that time I have bought with my own money (as opposed to gifts, raffle prizes, etc.) a grand total of SIX blades, three of which have since been sold, and the most expensive of which was $1,600. That is all I can reasonably (or arguably unreasonably) afford—there are much higher priorities than swords.

 

You don't have to buy items to enjoy nihonto. Of course we all want to, but it is a fallacy to think that studying this subject and collecting antiques are synonymous. Right now, museum exhibits, sword shows, and sword clubs offer the chance to examine objects that 99% of us will never have the means to own.

 

If you're trying to be more financially responsible, then swords are an obvious luxury to abstain from. I realize that may seem like anathema on this forum, where people would likely prefer to eat ramen noodles for a year if it meant they could afford a new sword , but it's a basic truth.

[Toryu2020]

Amen - Gabriel!

I have been into this subject 25 years - I own may be 4 swords - I was so mad for swords I moved to Japan for five years, where I went to every kantei-kai and museum exhibit I could get to. Now I have a collection in my head that none can equal, none can steal and I get to take it with me when I go...

-t

[Ted Tenold]

I'll ditto both Gabriel and Tom.

 

The term "investment" is all too often associated only with monetary gain. Sure, we all want and need money. But, as my father used to say, "Money is only something you need in case you don't die tommorow". As we all know, it's the decisions that we make that determine how much prudence we exercise when we buy things for our collections. Unlimited resources is not a luxury many folks have, and I've seen those that had them make some of the most foolish decisions imaginable anyways. At the very least, we'd all like some financial equalibrium in our collections in that when we decide to sell something, we break even to move on to something else. If a piece does show some gain in the marketplace, then great. But like every stock broker will tell you; past performance is not an indication of future expectations.

 

A true "investment" is that which secures future prospect of advancement or gain. The reality of this is that there are very few things that perform this with any modicum of gaurantee. The one thing that I consider the purest of investments is good education. As Tom mentioned, his experiences in Japan provided him with an invaluable source of reference that will forever guide his future judgements and decisions, and *that* is the definition of an investment in your future. Every decision he makes for the rest of his life will be guided by the information he gained and therefore his resources and his acquisitions are maximized. A collection reflects the true knowledge and taste of the owner.

 

In the end, I'd rather have a spectacular collection of one, than a collection of fifty junkers. But one must be able to tell the difference between the two, by their own ability. There is no circumventing the investment that must be made in time and exposure to great pieces to augment this ability.

 

It can be tough to temper enthusiasm, but "Fools rush in..." as the saying goes. Don't buy pieces on emotion and rationalize them with flawed logic.

[jason_mazzy]

Off topic: I would love to hear you jam or talk music with you. i have a Gibson collection begging to be thinned so I can afford a nihonto!

[jason_mazzy]

Retirement planning and swords or any other collectible for that matter really don't go together, other than to have something you love when you do finally cease work. I have been at this for 40 years with various edged weapons and it always seems any appreciable change in prices always take quite a long time and only for really top of the line collectibles. There is usually a 30-50 % mark up on collectibles when sold so in order to make any real money you have to hold it long enough for the market demand to come up to the sellers price and then wait for another time for it to increase!

 

What is even more upsetting at least to me is none of my 4 children is even remotely interested in the blades so if I pass away you folks may be able to get quite a bargain as there will be a fire sale on Nihonto as they will get them for nothing and anything is a bonus.

 

That said I may have to sell them when I get old and stunned and it may very well be the same deal unless you can wait long enough to get the price you want!

 

 

please let me know when you pass away.

[doug e lewis]

Umm, so kids are not interested in sword collection. you propably have some other "Japanese stuff", as the Philistines in my area might say, in your collection. [no offense meant to any Philistines or their desendants, its just an expression from Old Testament propaganda, and really not justified from what has been learned in the achealogical record]

 

so ya feeling a little under the weather? slowing down? forgeting where the key to sword room is? getting OLD?

 

you mightwant to let some nihonto go at fire sale prices so you can take that trip to Japan you always wanted. if not, i will get in the estate sale line with all the rest. hopefully, many years from now.

 

doug e