Blue NBTHK paper

[klee]

Good evening

 

I know it s common knowledge that the green papers ( Tokubetsu kicho ) have pretty much zero value now but where the blue papers ( Koshu Tokubetsu Kicho ) affected as well ?

 

Havent really come across these and I know they are uncommon

 

 

[Rivkin]

I have discussed it a bit in the Guide, but generally if you see one of those with say Kaga Muromachi blade, they are reliable and the blade itself is often good grade because those were not dished out in huge quantities.

If you see it with very top name, the modern judgement was obtained and was 1-2 grades lower. Blue papers are never crazy, they can be optimistic... or the modern team could be pessimistic, or even plain wrong.

[eternal_newbie]

11 hours ago, Rivkin said:

Blue papers are never crazy, they can be optimistic

 

This is good to know; I have a blade with one of these for the koshirae and had more or less dismissed it as irrelevant. I will have to re-evaluate my thinking there!

[Gakusee]

3 hours ago, eternal_newbie said:

 

This is good to know; I have a blade with one of these for the koshirae and had more or less dismissed it as irrelevant. I will have to re-evaluate my thinking there!

Actually with koshirae it should be OK. If it were a great name without current papers (eg a Nobuie tsuba or Kaneie or some other big name) then I would be worried.  But full koshirae sets without some mega name should be OK. 

[Jacques]

Old papers = no papers, whatever some people may say

[Ian B3HR2UH]

Han Bing Siong wrote in Token Bijutsu Vol 11 that " a great number of the members of the committee for  Koshu Tokubetsu Kicho Token shinsa are also judges of the Juyo Token  shinsa " . IF Koshu Tokubetsu Kicho Token papers are suspect does this not therefore cast doubt on some of the 1970s Juyo attributions ?

[Rivkin]

All judgements rendered in 1970s had a tendency to be optimistic. Today's judgements are often pessimistic. It ebbs back and forth, as it usually does.

There is some tendency in nihonto community to see the "green to modern" papers transition as a seminal and unprecedented event, but in my experience this is hardly so.
My grandparents both collected at reasonable level (violins and firearms respectively) and many relatives wrote "papers" of their own. One had to change his signature entirely, realizing he missed a very prominent series of fakeries. So he disavowed the old signature on such pieces and would generally indicate the need to rewrite other appraisals because the research had advanced in the meantime. But after being burned with those fakes, and more concerned at this point with his reputation, his late writeups have acquired a reputation for being very conservative to the point few actually opted for the "new signatures".

 

In the end blue papers are upper grade judgements from an optimistic period. They can be off, but seldom really raise eyebrows. Koshirae judgements quite frankly have a tendency to be insufficient to begin with, to the point of listing the motifs and not really qualifying who and when made the piece...

Also, a very strong contributing factor is that for high value pieces an attempt to repaper would be natural and therefore "green and high value" is a red flag not so much because "all green were bad", but because the "good ones" were repapered... Which in case of koshirae with no specific high value attribution brings a question - what exactly would one expect them to be repapered to? Its often a very generic attribution, blue simply means the piece earned some respect...

Edited December 31, 2025 by Rivkin

[Volker62]

well said Ian.

 

the old blue papera are not inherently questionable, not at all.

 

after all they are clearly distinct from the grren papers and are rather rare.

 

 

Mr Han Bing siong muust have researched this very thoroghly before making such a statement.

 

 

Please take a look at  "Unique Japan" and their description of the old blue papers.

[Brano]

Just look at the many items from the Juyo sessions from the 70s and it is quite obvious that the judges were "lenient"
Okay - it's 50 years and some pieces may have changed over that long period with repeated polishing...
But certainly not that much
Pablo is a businessman - information from them should always be taken with a grain of salt

 

[Volker62]

I find Han Bing Siong's research more credible, its always based on extremely careful fact's.

 

Anyone who knew him, know's whatI#m talking about.

 

 

[Volker62]

this clearly demonstrates, that regarding the so called "old blue papers" one cannot simply judge to the Motto:

 

"Old Paper's no Paper's"

 

and that Mr Han Bing Siong was not entirely wrong with his research in generall.

 

Blue Paper  Kosu tokubetsu Kicho here dated  25 january 1980

 

new Toku Betsu Hozon for the same Daisho blades dated 24.May 2021 

 

if I understand the data correctly

[Volker62]

Not all  dealer's are the same

 

that's far too general a statement  for me , like all old paper's

 

In this case, I've had exceptionally good experience  with Pablo

[Hoshi]

Hello, 

 

Yes, blue papers are not comparable to green papers. They are, in general, closer to the truth - survivorship bias not withstanding. They are also more "lenient" - and subtle downgrade are not uncommon (but it is rarely a free fall). The reason for this is that blue papers were issued by the central authority of the NBHTK, and not regional branches. This is the root of Han Bin Siong's observation. 

 

Quote

 

this clearly demonstrates, that regarding the so called "old blue papers" one cannot simply judge to the Motto:

 

"Old Paper's no Paper's"

 

 

Well, it somehow does if you're deep into this. 

 

In your example above, your set went from being a true daisho (2 swords, 1 papers) to two distinct blades with separate papers. This means the modern NBHTK judges did not find sufficient evidence to conclude that both swords were ordered from the smith with the intent of forming a daisho. While this may not seem like much, it has surprising implications on the market with regard to value.

 

We are entering arcane topics, but it is worth pointing out. 

 

Nonetheless, I would still insist on modern NBHTK papers and Tanobe sensei Sayagaki, and evaluate every piece deeply, in context. 

 

Hope this helps, 

 

Hoshi

[Volker62]

what should not overlocked, of courses is that both sounds already possess

 

a correspondingly good quality to received the corresponding ratings.

 

a plus for the awarding of Koshu Tokubestu Kicho at that time

 

[Brano]

Volker - I don't dispute your claim
However, you show blue papers and modern papers for zaimei Shinto blades
In most cases, the discrepancy is in the old papers that have an attribute for a prominent swordsmith from the Kamakura/Nanbokucho period or the few from the Muromachi
No one is saying that all old papers are compromised
Everyone need to make individual assessments and especially not have too many expectations from a blade that suddenly appears on the market somewhere, has old papers with an attribute for famous names

 

[Hokke]

It seems to me that all this back and forth really boils down to one common denominator……value. 
Anyone owning a blade with blue papers is fine, no problems, just know that if a day comes when that blade is up for sale, the price may reflect the absence of modern papers. You can argue up, down and sideways until you are blue in the face, but nihonto, like every other art, is only worth what someone is willing to pay. Conditions change, judges change, conceptions change and as such, attributions can change…….
 

[Brano]

24 minutes ago, Hokke said:

It seems to me that all this back and forth really boils down to one common denominator……value. 
Anyone owning a blade with blue papers is fine, no problems, just know that if a day comes when that blade is up for sale, the price may reflect the absence of modern papers. You can argue up, down and sideways until you are blue in the face, but nihonto, like every other art, is only worth what someone is willing to pay. Conditions change, judges change, conceptions change and as such, attributions can change…….
 

Yes - basically it's like you write
But let's think rationally
If there are blue papers with attribution for a big name. or for a zaimei with a big name ( Shinkai, Kotetsu, Tsuda Sukehiro ... - not necessarily Koto blade ), why not make modern papers? if the blade is in Japan we are talking about a cost of 300 USD

[Hokke]

2 minutes ago, Brano said:

Yes - basically it's like you write
But let's think rationally
If there are blue papers with attribution for a big name. or for a zaimei with a big name ( Shinkai, Kotetsu, Tsuda Sukehiro ... - not necessarily Koto blade ), why not make modern papers? if the blade is in Japan we are talking about a cost of 300 USD

Precisely……because people will always prefer to keep a big name, regardless of origami age. Plenty of folks out there buying nihonto who just need *something* on paper, regardless of the color or age. The flip side of that is when someone has old papers with a lesser attribution, but good reason to believe that modern papers would attribute it higher. Those folks are the first in line for new papers. 

[eternal_newbie]

15 minutes ago, Hokke said:

The flip side of that is when someone has old papers with a lesser attribution, but good reason to believe that modern papers would attribute it higher. Those folks are the first in line for new papers. 

 

And the other flip side, like my koshirae set which has blue papers but no real "attribution" or mei to evaluate, just a description of what's there and how they fit together. As Kirill pointed out further upthread, what could new Hozon/TH papers even tell us other than "it's a set of real koshirae" in either decent or very decent condition? Makes perfect sense that nobody ever bothered trying to repaper in the modern system.

[Hokke]

2 minutes ago, eternal_newbie said:

 

And the other flip side, like my koshirae set which has blue papers but no real "name" anywhere. As Kirill pointed out further upthread, what could new Hozon/TH papers even tell us other than "it's a set of real koshirae" in either decent or very decent condition? Makes perfect sense why nobody ever bothered trying to repaper in the modern system.

I agree, if authenticity is the only parameter, new papers would be of little benefit in your case. However, if condition is a parameter, old papers have less value since they reflect condition at the time of evaluation only. 

[eternal_newbie]

2 minutes ago, Hokke said:

However, if condition is a parameter, old papers have less value since they reflect condition at the time of evaluation only. 

 

Something to think about for the future, as this will eventually become an issue for Hozon/TH papers too.

[Hokke]

7 minutes ago, eternal_newbie said:

 

Something to think about for the future, as this will eventually become an issue for Hozon/TH papers too.

Exactly, new papers are only *new papers* until they aren’t. In 2075, the papers of today will be ancient and this conversation will remain ongoing. 

[Jussi Ekholm]

I am appreciating even the older papers for regular items. If you have extremely high level mumei sword or signed item by famous smith it is of course advisable to upgrade them. I do think most of the shinsa attributions have always been made with good intentions. However the knowledge has evolved with time and some things are maybe seen differently in current study. I do love my sword books and magazines, however as was said that in 50 years knowledge advances. I have some 50 year old books that have some errors, I think I have some about c.100 year old books that might have even more incorrect information but that information was of course thought to be correct at that time it was written.

 

I think sword in the first post could likely be a katana by Muromachi Kongōbyōe Moritaka. I could very easily see the modern NBTHK papering it with just the signature mentioned in the paper. To me personally this would not add too much value. However if NBTHK would specify the period in paper in brackets, that would be a huge plus. Unfortunately it is not guaranteed that they will specify anything in the paper. As I believe Kongōbyōe Moritaka lineage goes from Nanbokuchō up to early Edo, having some specification in paper would be preferable, instead of them just awarding the paper and stating there is a signature Minamoto Moritaka.

 

Just a personal feeling that NBTHK papers have become hugely impactful to the market, their opinion is pretty much the only organization that carries weight and there can be huge spikes in prices for attributions that market wants. I don't think it was like that back in the day. I cannot really read all the articles at Tōken Bijutsu magazines with my language level but I have used translators for some to get decent results. I have heard the Hozon & Tokubetsu Hozon shinsa are fully booked now that they put on limits for items accepted and there is nothing written out on the results. Some of the early magazines feature full lists of items that passed the early Kicho shinsa, like you see modern Jūyō results featured in the magazine. And on some occasions in some articles even some of the items were mentioned what had possibly been the interesting items of the session. I just wish there would be few more swords featured in the monthly magazine, of course they do probably run a very strict standard and rules for their articles etc. 

[klee]

Thenk you @Jussi Ekholm and @Rivkin for the insight as always.

 

This is the sword I was interested in 

 

https://shop.nihontou.jp/products/detail/31638

 

Checks all the boxes from what I can tell. I dont like the hi situation however. The way its on one side of the tang and not the other. Maybe added later and they wanted to preserve the signature.

 

The signature looks ok but I ve always thought Moritaka and Kongo Hyoe in general signed down the middle. Not to the side