the real value of 'papers'

[oldcodger]

I have in the past accumulated a large  collection of swords going back to C16th, sold some time ago to make way for a change of collecting direction. During the period I often  looked towards Japanese metal, but never made the jump.  Now,  as a new  entrant into the world of Nihonto, I am finding it fascinating. I have made made a few purchases,( including one likely mistake,) and plan to continue.

As I read more  about age, makers and so forth, the award of Nbthk papers seems  to offer some counter ballance for inexperience when spending the amounts of money involved. I understand now that other certificates are available,  via London ( NTHK )  and USA ( choose   desired certificate type ), and therefore probably other sources.

My  obvious observation is how open to manipulation by market forces is the award of the certificates, ?  and is there a common standard by which they awarded ?

Given how limited opportunities are to handle and compare, learning is slow, the number of unsigned blades is high, so, in reality reliable certification, or a dealers opinion seem to be the only real measure of  reality.

I am, as you might  understand from this,  v. nervous about  descriptions and  values, 

Nick G

[Mikaveli]

It depends, for resale (with confidence), especially to newer collectors, an NBTHK certificate is invaluable.

 

However, the attributions (especially mumei) can change - it's not a perfect science. However, you are getting what's considered to be the most recognised/valued expert opinion.

 

It's difficult for newer collectors to "buy the blade, not the paper" but being aware of the quality and condition, will help ensure you don't overpay.

 

If you're looking to purchase a big name, I'd recommend one of the prominent, trusted dealers (some are on here). It's well worth the price of their expertise.

Edited November 5 by Mikaveli

[Robert S]

It's well recognized, including by the NBTHK, that there was a period when "market forces"... possibly including organized crime... let us say "influenced" the award of their papers - the infamous NBTHK green papers.  In order to attack this problem whey re-organized their whole system.  Does this mean there is no possibility of such influence today?  Probably not, but so far the system appears to be producing results which, while not unquestionable, are at least honest.

[oldcodger]

Interesting. are you saying the NBTHK green papersare worthless ?

 

Nick G

[Scogg]

29 minutes ago, oldcodger said:

Interesting. are you saying the NBTHK green papersare worthless ?

 

Nick G

 

The reliability of the old green papers has been discussed quite a bit here over the years. Might be worth searching the forum for old threads that discuss the topic. Lots of opinions and discussions.
 

Here’s an older article by the late Darcy Brockbank that covers the topic in detail; you’ll need to scroll down a bit, but it’s well worth the read:
https://web.archive.org/web/20210123052725/https://blog.yuhindo.com/green-papers-no-papers/

Sincerely,
-Sam

[Jacques]

Old NBTHK papers = no papers nothing else.

[2devnul]

On 11/5/2025 at 11:45 PM, Jacques said:

Old NBTHK papers = no papers nothing else.

 

At least it is confirmation that sword is Nihonto, I think we can agree on that. 

[Promo]

On 11/5/2025 at 12:44 PM, oldcodger said:

My  obvious observation is how open to manipulation by market forces is the award of the certificates, ?  and is there a common standard by which they awarded ?

Fully agree with you that it is just the greedy sellers and the market manipulation with these certificates of knowledgeable people. I can sell you a rare Leonardo Da Vinci painting of a duck for just one million pounds. It clearly states Leonardo on bottom left. However, I do not have any certificates because of the greedy sellers and therefore it is much cheaper than usual.

 

Do we have a deal? Or do you prefer to get someone elses opinion on it?

 

Everyone is up to do with his money as he wants to. If you feel confident enough and trust yourself more than someone elses expertise, then do get the stuff without paperwork.

[Hokke]

This reminds me of a time when I went with a friend to look at a private used mercedes for sale. Everything on the outside looked perfect and the owner was quick to present the "clean carfax", which of course showed that everything was in order. I then asked the owner if he would allow us to drive it to the dealership for a pre-purchase inspection, his reply was, "for what? Here is the clean carfax." Begrudgingly, he agreed and when the inspection was completed, it was found to have unreported rear end damage and a few aftermarket parts, all of which were never mentioned. 

The point is that NBTHK papers, like a carfax, are not a conclusion, but a tool. They are more valuable for those less informed on specific schools and styles, but a tool nonetheless. If someone chooses to regard papers as a conclusion, that is certainly their prerogative, but the consequence is they may be paying quite a premium to a dealer who may have priced it with that type of customer in mind. 

[2devnul]

40 minutes ago, Hokke said:

The point is that NBTHK papers, like a carfax, are not a conclusion, but a tool.

Not to mention that papers can be forgery, like printed carfax, it is just a piece of paper. This is even easier for old papers, new ones can at least be doublecheck (I think) in computer data base. 

[Lewis B]

53 minutes ago, 2devnul said:

 new ones can at least be doublecheck (I think) in computer data base. 

Juyo or TJ yes, not sure about TH or Hozon. 

[jawob]

To piggyback with Hokke, it is very similar to sportscards. Cards that are slabbed and graded command higher prices. I would also say that collectors who were not around before grading will not buy raw cards, trusting the grader more than there own knowledge. This pushes older collectors to have cards graded to secure higher value. 

Ofcourse there is still shady practices and major questions in opinion but it is far from eliminating bad actors. I assume the same goes for sword papers it probably doesn't help that most papers only allude to orgin and most buyers are not fluent in Japanese.

[Jacques]

Quote

If you feel confident enough and trust yourself more than someone elses expertise, then do get the stuff without paperwork.

I did it, sent it to the shinsa and got a tokuho for the sword and one for the koshirae, and sold it (and that's not the only time).

[Mikaveli]

Also, fairly obvious, but like maps, kanteisho are only representative of the time they were made.

 

TokuHo from 1998, it's very possible that condition has degraded since, ware may have opened, rust etc etc. so it's still very possible to over pay.

[Gakusee]

6 hours ago, Lewis B said:

Juyo or TJ yes, not sure about TH or Hozon. 

same = can be checked by telephoning or calling or going in person 

[Lewis B]

Just now, Gakusee said:

same = can be checked by telephoning or calling or going in person 

Ahh OK, so its only replacement papers if originals lost, that apply to Juyo and up. 

[Gakusee]

1 hour ago, Mikaveli said:

Also, fairly obvious, but like maps, kanteisho are only representative of the time they were made.

 

TokuHo from 1998, it's very possible that condition has degraded since, ware may have opened, rust etc etc. so it's still very possible to over pay.

That is a bit of a red herring. Someone could have got a TJ certificate for a balde only two years ago and let the blade rust or have damaged it. 
 

I followed one TJ blade which went somewhere in a pristine condition and 12 months later it needed a repair ….

 

It all boils down to how a sword is cared for. I have a Juyo sword which was last graded and polished 60 years ago and it is still almost perfectly preserved (save for some uchiko hike by an overzealous custodian in Japan). 

[Gakusee]

Just now, Lewis B said:

Ahh OK, so its only replacement papers if originals lost, that apply to Juyo and up. 

Yes that is correct. 
 

But for H/TH if in doubt, re authenticity of certificate / blade,  I suggest you call them and email/fax certificate and oshigata and photo if you have and they could advise if they believe something is out of order. But is not  straightforward and best done via proxy / Japanese speaker. 

[Gakusee]

9 minutes ago, Gakusee said:

 

So overall one needs to tread carefully with the conclusions. 

[Mikaveli]

20 minutes ago, Gakusee said:

That is a bit of a red herring. Someone could have got a TJ certificate for a balde only two years ago and let the blade rust or have damaged it. 

 

 

It's not a "red herring", not at all.

 

I said "kanteisho are only representative of the time they were made", which is true.

 

I made an arbitrary date example, which should have been obvious to be not exhaustive. Whether 12 months, 2 years, or 20 years the statement holds.

 

However, with greater passage of time, the likelihood of any items condition degrading increases.

 

Yes, there are examples from 60 years later still in fantastic condition - there are many. But do you imagine that there are more, or fewer such examples when compared to 6 days after shinsha, 6 months or 6 years?