What is the state of the market currently?

[markturner]

Good afternoon everyone, it has been a while since I was active and meantime my collection has been enjoyed at a distance, but a bit more free time means I hope to rekindle my interest.

 

As you do, I was doing some "window shopping" in Aoi art's website and noticed some very beautiful swords for sale there at surprisingly low prices... there was a lovely Juyo blade in koshirae, for around 3 million yen, which, while not cheap, at around £20K english pounds, seemed almost attainable.......when I consider what I have paid for my blades in the past ( in the range of £4 - 6,000 the step up does not seem so large to own a Juyo blade.....

 

In the intervening years of my inactivity, what has the market done and what does this mean perhaps for the value of my existing collection? 

 

Finally, I noticed some ebay sellers say they cannot ship to the UK, is this the case now? It is not mentioned on Aoi art site at all....if so, what does that mean for collectors here and how would you get around this? 

 

Kind regards, mark

[Ken-Hawaii]

What is the period of time you've been inactive, Mark?

[paulb]

Mark,

Since you have been out of circulation I think the market has remained faily flat, even dropping for mid range work. As is often the case blades at the very top and very bottom tend to be fairly consistent but those in the middle (such as those you mention) fluctuate the most. At the moment the pricing is low. The downside from our point of view in the UK is that the UK pound is also a lot weaker against USD, Yen and Euro than it was four or five years ago.

 

Ebay went through a phase of banning the sale and  purchase of Japanese swords in the UK. I thought this had eased recently but have no personal experience.

 

Shipping is definitely an issue and there is considerable inconsistency in the way the border force interpret the law. We are trying to work on it but have not had too much success so far. If you choose the right carrier and it comes in at the right point of entry it is generally not an issue provided it has the right paperwork (Tsuruta san is very experienced with international shipping) 

Juyo blade pricing ranges from around 20k to a much larger number. The price is governed by the maker, the rarity and the condition not the paper.

[Gakusee]

I think the low to mid-end has dropped in value. At upper end (Juyo and above) there is a massive differentiation. You have “lower-end” Juyo (2.5m-3m yen), where one can look for good value but one needs to know what to look for. At upper level of Juyo, for top smiths, values have gone up. You could have a Juyo sword selling at 15-25m yen for the topmost maker (eg Tomonari, Sadamune etc) and a JuBi at half that value (Naminohara). So it is very much dependent on Smith+School+Quality (sometimes also provenance) as opposed to level of paper. I would love to lay my hands on a Hozon Masatsune or Hozon Masamune, not caring for a higher-level paper:).

[markturner]

Thank you, interesting information.....I have been away for around 4 years. it is tempting to invest in another blade, as i have some new liquidity, which is nice. But I think I need to perhaps invest some time and effort first in re aquainting myself with the hobby.....

[Stephen]

Best laid plan's Mark

[Bruce Pennington]

Mark,

Over the past 2 years, in the military market, officer gunto have fallen a bit and NCO gunot rose rapidly. That seems to have stabilized lately, though. When I got into this 5 years ago, and officer gunto went for $1,200-1,400 while NCO gunto were $650-750. Today, officer gunto range from $600-1,200 and NCO gunto are $900-1,400.