Nthk Vs. Nbthk Papers

[Heringsdorf]

Hello,

 

I was wondering how the different papers compare.

Which are more reliable or respected.

 

My understanding was that NTHK kanteisho is comparable to NBTHK Hozon, as both are in the 70-79 points range!?

 

Now the NBTHK Tokubetsu Hozon is in the 80-89 points rang, right?

[Jean]

Your answer:

 

http://www.japaneseswordindex.com/origcomp.htm

[Heringsdorf]

Merci beaucoup Jean.

[Fuuten]

Interesting link, however it doesn't really explain how Yushuto from the NPO ranks comparing to a tokubetsu juyo, i don't think the same implication is in effect when it concerns the financial value. However a bad sword wouldn't receive Yushuto.

 

When it concerns the financial side i think the NBTHK gives something a higher price-mark, but isn't that mainly because the NBTHK plays more on the historical value of a piece and perhaps therefor are perceived to be more valuable?

 

 

Edit: after some staring it also makes me wonder what would've happened in the early days of the NTBHK if something ended up between 85 and 88 points:)

[Andi B.]

Hello, I heared, that for the NTHK the focus is more on the condition / state of preservation of the blade while the NBTHK has its focus more on the artistic / historical value...?

[Darcy]

For the NBTHK system I prefer the onion model or like the layers of the earth.

 

 

The ladder system is what gets people into thinking that these are each discrete stages. 

 

Each tier needs to embrace the next one. So anything Tokubetsu Hozon is Hozon. Getting something Hozon is not an indictment then. It's an invitation to advance it until it cannot be advanced anymore. Once it cannot advance anymore you know where it stands relative to the others. The problem being that in this system stuff is being drawn in toward the center which is Tokuju, because an item has just fallen into Hozon doesn't mean that it is not going to continue to fall any further toward the center. 

 

But it means it is not going to fall backwards. So it over time settles where it is.

 

 

The model is important because people need to break the ladder theory out of their heads and ladder theory comes from this original attempt by HBS who was a very bright guy to try to draw some equivalency between the papers. I don't think the equivalency is entirely accurate as the NBTHK standards themselves change as time goes by. Introducing Tokuju did not lower everything else, what it did was to further partition the Juyo into the top 7.5% and everything else.

 

That system is all based on relative weighting of where a piece sits vs. everything else. The slow years long competition process is good because when you don't know your full data set you need time for other blades to be found and make their slow migration to the core. Will have you an answer in about 150 years.

 

I don't think it is directly relateable to the NTHK which picks up a piece, and a judge gives it an absolute score. If you are in the west they have to cap the score. If that score his the cap, back it goes to Japan and then is assessed a score above the cap and you have a final judgment on that blade for its quality. It is not relative to the other blades though, it's relative only for the smith.

 

NBTHK assessments are relative to the blade only until it gets Tokubetsu Hozon and then the criteria are relative to everything. And they introduce more factors like where does this maker stand in the overall big picture of the sword world for importance. This is his masterwork so we may like to include that in these grounds but he is a chump so does he belong with the elites. He can get pushed out of any particular competition for not having enough importance associated with his work. Maybe one gets through and its the only one ever and forever is held under some skepticism because of it. But, different criteria apply than just assessing the blade. It's a competition. 

 

That means that this chart HBS made isn't valid. The ladder theory that this chart has invited, simplifies like this (by the way Robert Hughes invented the name and it is perfect):

 

Hozon to Tokubetsu Hozon has a value of around nothingish to about $7,500

Tokubetsu Hozon to Juyo is about $7,500 to $25,000

Juyo to Tokubetsu Juyo is $25,000 to $90,000

Tokubetsu Juyo is $120,000 and up...

 

There is a missing rung. $100,000 is "too expensive for Juyo" for ladder thinkers. It is also considered "very inexpensive for Tokubetsu Juyo". 

 

So a blade with this value, no paper adequately represents it if you are buying in mentally to this ladder theory. And the ladder theory comes from these level charts meant to represent the papers. 

 

The value of a blade is based on what the blade is and the rankings are simply removing the confusion about what it may be to someone who otherwise is having problems assessing where it should be. I will use my Kanemitsu as a case in point.

 

I bought it at auction with no paper but the fittings museum attributed it to Kanemitsu. When I was going through all of their swords I would first look at the sword and write my attribution then this would be looked up by a friend who then told me what they had it as. In the case of this one I attributed it to Kanemitsu and so did they. 

 

At open market, as a Kanemitsu-we-all-hope it went to about $72,000 US. 

 

That is the value of the sword, minus the uncertainty of the expert evaluations being accurate, minus the uncertainty of the blade being good enough to be Juyo, and minus the uncertainty of the blade being good enough to be Tokubetsu Juyo. Each of those papers is an expert partition that the blade belongs with a higher class group quality and condition wise, as well as importance. 

 

When it gets Hozon then the value should ding up NOT because it's Hozon, but because Hozon removed the uncertainty (risk) factor of the attribution being wrong. So now Kanemitsu IS Kanemitsu. This is worth some percentage. Since this blade was quite textbook and the fittings museum was more right than wrong the risk was small so the price paid at market should be seen as a sizeable percentage already of the real valuation if all knowables are known to all market actors.

 

The process is one then of removing uncertainty and thus eliminating a risk devaluation. 

 

Papers do not make the blade go up in value. This is what they do. Remove uncertainty. Eliminate risk devaluation.

 

ANY PARTICULAR BLADE WITH NO PAPERS MAY BE A MASAMUNE

 

Assess the risk: very close to 99.9999999% that it's not Masamune. Thus the devaluation is very large from the market price of a legitimate Masamune down to this one. But, if it really, really looks like Masamune that devaluation is going to be more like 70%. That is the price is higher. The more information you have the less risk and the price reflects it.

 

Ok, so when the Kanemitsu passed Juyo it dismissed the risk that it would be denied entry into the elite, good condition and important blades group. This dismissed another devaluation. I combine those as a 15% premium over the price it took at open auction. It passed easy on one shot and this means it was one of the strongest candidates, its flawless and I think it has a shot at Tokuju because of all of this. And it's ideal length, big kissaki, macho shape and flawless. All pros. Thick and heavy. 

 

These imply that the blade is among the best Kanemitsu becaues the condition and work are top level. That is what makes it cost more than a bashed up worn down sleepy old tired beat up one. But, they also imply that it could pass Tokuju for the same reason. 

 

To any given market participant with limited knowledge, they will look at mine if I put it up at $85k and say "that's expensive I saw one at $60k." This guys information is only that they are both Kanemitsu and both Juyo and so one has better value. Mine is not done the process and has also the uncertainty of not passing Tokuju in which case it will just sit at the top edge of Juyo and that is right about here. 

 

This process though is why it makes it very hard to equate an NBTHK paper to an NTHK paper. The NBTHK paper keeps this blade percolating in the system with unknowns above its head. If you can look at that blade and if you know that it will be drawn in toward the center by its quality, and if the seller knows it will be drawn in to the center, you are not going to get a "Hozon price" because it has Hozon papers. And he's not ripping you off. 

 

He's considered look: this is a great blade, top smith, quality is great we both agree, these are all principles that make it amongst the best koto works. These are conditions for getting Juyo. Juyo will confirm these principles and these principles are what sets the price. We could be wrong, the judges may decline Juyo which may cause us some temporary doubt about the blade and where it stands. That risk causes a devaluation from the final value that it will have with the Juyo paper should it get it.

 

This is where people may skip the intermediate parts and believe that Juyo makes it more expensive. It doesn't. It's confirming the principles of the blade. Those same principles are also factors in pricing it. Removing uncertainty then causes the price to float. 

 

NTHK (as far as I understand it) by going straight to the heart of the matter and assessing the blade on an absolute scale for the work of the smith is not using this system at all. Yushu then is not equivalent to Juyo at all. They're saying different things. They are both saying very good and important things. But the systems just being different at their hearts do not fit easily on this chart where we can say a Tokubetsu Hozon blade is thus 76 points in NTHK speak. 

 

It just isn't. In any way shape or form. And this chart should be burned as a result because it encourages people to think wrong thoughts. 

 

Yushu is fantastic and great and it means something similar to Juyo in that it is singling the blade out as being special. But ultimately there is some apples and oranges there. I am sure there are Yushu that won't pass Juyo and there are Juyo that won't pass Yushu. 

 

But in the end I think it doesn't even give the correct impression of the NBTHK system and as such leads to misconceptions and is then trying to equate something it didn't describe well via gut calls to an alternate system assessing things in a different way. 

 

The big chart killer is a $500,000 ubu zaimei Awataguchi Hisakuni in mint condition and papered Hozon, which tells me by this chart that it is maximally 82 points. So someone can walk home with that thought. And it's all wrong. 

 

Similarly I had a shot at an unpapered Masamune some years ago and I was way too nervous to get into that kind of thing. The blade was on the old daimyo register as the Taga Masamune. I said ok, please paper this to Hozon so at least I know they agree. so they did and it passed. 

 

Bingo: 82 point old timey famous Masamune. It could easily have been left there and many are left there just because they don't want them to get published, which is what happens at Juyo and Tokuju. Nor do they want it pawed over many times. 

 

I didn't buy it in the end. Too scared.

 

But some years after it passed Juyo and then Tokuju. By the chart now it is minimally 94 points and up to 100. 

 

The sword didn't change and if the NTHK had it in Japan they'd have just given it the points they felt it deserved I believe. 

 

Apples and oranges. One is an absolute scale and one is a relative scale. 

[Fuuten]

Darcy that was quite helpful. Thank you.

[Gordon Sanders]

Great post Darcy