Curran

Was posted over 4 years ago. This is a very old thread. While blades seem to continue to be soft in prices, the number of interesting fittings like Fred's coming to market has dropped substantially since the 2003-2004 Bankruptcy of the private Fittings Museum due to the owner's poor investments. That represented the last great buying opportunity. We're just not seeing that many quality pieces anymore. Having gone over photos of the DTI and been rather bored by what was show versus the prices, items there are trading at multiples of what they can be had for in North America- if found. Yet a lot of the traditional sources for top level fittings are drying up. This score by Fred 4+ years ago was a good one, and one he shouldn't let go.

Please forgive slight divergence away from your original question. --Do you mind sharing what state or city you live in, if in USA? I respectfully have spent time with a long time collector who lost his sight. He still has his memory of the blades he has owned, and can discuss with me the various activity and other signature aspects of them as I view them and tell him which one I am viewing. We cycle through through various blades of schools and time periods. Some I know very well, and some not as well as his memory shows me. Please judge how important it is to your husband to own a blade vs. seeing in person and getting to handle some fine blades. Depending on where you live and other practical factors, there may be some of us willing to share with him and show a few blades. A nice blade can be had for $5000, but the experience of something like one of the sword shows rampant with Juyo and higher level swords (and hands on lectures, after review lesson in blade etiquette) in the USA may be a greater memory with less cost. In some states you may even find monthly group meetings or lectures that he would enjoy and also serves to give you information as to what he may ideally want to own. No promises or false hope, but some of us will help if possible to do so.

Lucky timing.... as this topic just came up elsewhere. I have seen a tsuba with recent NBTHK papers to 'Tachi Shi'. *However*, the tsuba was photographed with the nakago ana blade up, rather than blade down. Pre-Edo tsuba. No hitsuana. While many regard it common practice is to photograph tachi tsuba with nakago ana blade down, is this the practice of the NBTHK in papering tsuba? Anyone able to link to a tachi tsuba with modern NBTHK papers to illustrate?

Hizen, Hoan, Hirado, Umetada, Tempo, and a number of other schools. Still own a nice Hizen example.

Sasano was repeatedly said to use a patch of undyed cotton thread carpet, on his knee. This would be less than a sanding belt, but more than most people can do with cloth. More than once I've read people's memories of him resting a patch on his knee and working a tsuba as a sort of reflexive habit while in a taxi ride, talking to someone, or killing time at a desk. I've certainly never tried it and am curious to see any old film of him doing this, as I've seen some of his overworked tsuba. Henry: not even sure where to begin. Most things are photoreactive on some level. Old lacquer or mystery substances can be brutally stubborn or occupy inside sukashi where they don't belong. Before most people are in a rush to sandblast their tsuba clean, maybe they should just relax a bit and give it some time in the sun. 1 month of Florida summer sunlight through a skylight in the guest house can make many mystery substances just pop off, yet not hurt the natural patina that much. There are certain schools like Kamiyoshi or iron tsuba with kinko on them where I might avoid this, but for many of the relatively naked darker grain Owari tsuba this is almost always a good thing. I am collecting more kinko these days, it is rare I fiddle with a tsuba anymore. Still sometimes a nice one half sheep dipped in mystery color or overcleaned one comes available.

Horsehair brush: try shops involved with traditional print making Prolonged sunlight: dose of radiation has its uses, depending upon what you are trying to do or undo KM: moist and close to the sea is not a bad thing. Inside a tool shed or garage with open air flow, hung from the appropriate rafter with some sort of natural thread- take it down, check it, give it a bit of the previously mentioned rub with clean undyed cotton or undyed denim, then rotate the clock orientation of the tsuba a bit, and rehang for another few weeks. All this is subjective low level stuff. Also depends on the nature of the patina and the tsuba. I've had a Hayashi that wouldn't heal much despite a year of patient care, and then I've had a number of Owari or Higo school ones that heal incredibly easy from the existing patina. On average, we are talking 6 months to 2 years this way- but the advantage is you develop a great level of understanding by so ritually visiting it and inspecting it.

+1 quite the exhibit 11 Kaneiye side by side on exhibit boggles the mind of those us who collect from afar and rarely get to see such pieces in person.

Heavy rains? I've heard they are attracted to Tokyo when Cyrus is in town. Mike Y or someone else painted a distinct picture of heavy rains, Cyrus' primero shoes, wet tiles, and a heavy backpack lead to some Henry Ford-Chevy Chase moments.

Don't quote me: Rough read: "Kazukazu" or "Ichikazu" ? Actual: I forget how it is rendered as an artists name. I've run across it before as the gimei signature on an otherwise beautiful tsuba in a museum. Gave me quite the challenge at the time to track it down. From *distant* memory, fellow is recognized enough that I had examples of shoshin on file somewere. Maybe Wakayama. Maybe Baur. Late late edo maker. Given the lack of precision in the signature, I'd go along with you all that have deigned it a souvenir or poker token piece.

See Kaga Kinko Taikan for fine example of gold tsuba with this creature.

There is a well known iron Hizoko Hirata with a large natural kizu. It is considered part of its tea beauty. I have a nice Hazama with lamination fold kizu along the seppa dai. Somehow, it seems in character with the tsuba. These sword cuts happen. Some real, some not. Late Momoyama/early edo there was a rash of 'test cuts' across muromachi & momoyama period tsuba. There are at least 2 Nobuiye with these cuts across them practically from slightly under 9pm across to above 3pm. Some of these seem done by professional cutter/tester. Jim Gilbert had a few of them back in the day. I've also seen in person a Yagyu with a bunch of little cuts in an area that look more like wear-n-tear via some sort of live blade practice. It seemed ridiculously dangerous to me, but nature of the cuts seemed to imply a sword on the tsuba.

Armor and the higher end fittings seem to have done acceptably well, but it looks that Congress and the Stock Market tantrums did successfully scare away the sword buyers. That Masazane for a fraction.... was there some condition issue other than the lost Juyo papers? Now the after auction bargain hunters get a week or so to go after what didn't hit reserve. Most of what I was interested in seems to have sold, but now it is time to talk to them about the one that didn't.

Thanks Pete.

Remember 'Fat Bastard'? He was into the chinese porcelain long before the run up. The ex options trader moved from the Netherlands to Hong Kong and opened up an executive recruiting firm while continuing to deal porcelain. Thus he quit the Japanese forums. I just stuck to paintings. Favorite one is by a lesser known artist named Xie Yuemei "Lotus and Kingfisher" dated 1930. Most were acquired in the 1990s from Taiwanese & Shanghainese friends and connections. Edit: I hadn't seen the Sotheby's Hong Kong news until today (10/8/2013). It just keeps going.

John- Have fun at the DTI. Plans are to attend in 2014 and visit my host family. Perhaps not on swords, but Tokubetsu Hozon quality kodogu (including those with only Hozon) seem to be inflating in price. This: http://www.tsuruginoya.com/mn1_3/f00208.html came up a few days ago. It is a particularly fine example of the 5th gen... mind you... the 5th gen. It went off at prices about 2x of what it could have been bought a few years ago before Abe economics kicked in. Papered Nobuiye are also starting to go off at about 2x of a few years ago. Only what was Ichiban during the 1980s seems to be staying soft: Goto and Ko-Mino. Everything else seems to be ticking up like the long slumbering Las Vegas real estate market. Kinda disturbing to those of us who were hoping the USD would get stronger so we could buy things cheaper, but there was a brief window of opportunity. I capitalized on it a bit with a fine TH Hirata and TH Kanshiro tsuba purchase, but not enough. Curran Ps: I've been trying for a decade now to pick up a good papered gold n shakudo ko-mino tsuba, since I let one get away from me at $3500. It looked like a slightly better version of this one: http://www.premi.co.jp/ts-komino-kikuha ... 30611.html This seller has it labeled as ko-mino, but papers say Mino tipping the hat to early Edo. Still, he's asking over $10,000. If you can find me a better papered "ko-mino" sub $5000-6000 at the DTI, by all means please send me pictures. I may be smoking crack to think I can get one that cheap now that Abeconomics is fueling things.

I must agree with Henk-jan. That seems to be the primary factor. The Shikkake Juyo that sold for 22.5k last year was Pristine. Beautiful. Sold cheap. Yet a Naotsuna that I would not have guessed to clear the 30k mark cleared over 100k. Sure there is a financial nuclear bomb in the room set to go off later this month. Yes, defusing it is as easy as cutting either the Red or Blue wire (no 'wrong' choice there), but the Red and Blue of Congress are slugging it out over which one is right....keeping each other from that important act. The partisan feuding is such that the bomb might actually go off, though Congress must be officially braindead to allow that to happen. Still, the threat of it might make this auction a bargain hunting one. The post 9/11 Sept 2001 Sotheby's NYC Japan auction was all but absent of international buyers. USA bargain hunters picked it apart, as Sotheby's just gave up and let much of it go at 50 to 60 cents on the USD. Just like this auction, there was a large library break-up of two lots. I believe it went to a smiling New York collector. John Prough dragged me to the preview, and it was bargain central for some of the smart older guys. Several of John's best blades came from that sale. Is the October 8th sale going to be in the same vein? I don't know. I admit I've always wanted a decent kabuto, but they seem increasingly scarce in the USA. I might bargain bottom buy in that area. Also, there are a few other things I want to see.

Arnold- No. Not joking at all. As you said, it is "risk free", yet your basis for this discussion is about it no longer being risk free. Who holds the largest share of our debt, and why are they working so diligently to develop alternative exchanges for everything possible to circumvent the USD? Mind you, QE Infinity is a lovely way to poke them in the eye and leave them smiling at the same time. Bottom buying the Aussie, Loonie, and Swiss Franc have been easy trades. Especially the Swiss if it comes unpegged. ~~~ Can we agree Black Swan = 3.5 to 4 standard deviations? Even if we say just 3 standard deviations, I don't really need to address the black swan for the 99%. Our clients are the top 1-2% and they had a nuclear suntan from Oct 9th, 2008. 5 year anniversary right around the corner. Since then clients have been wanting belt and suspenders protection. We've regularly gone out and bought it. The way to hedge congressional idiocy in terms of US debt is a particularly easy hedge. What % haircut do you think the 20 Year bond would get if Congress screwed the pooch? Multiply that by about 10x, and that is the return our clients would make. That is if I don't add a bit of a VIX trade on top of that. The world might burn, but the rich would suddenly get much richer this time around. Congress couldn't steal from the poor and give to the rich any faster short of just giving over the keys to the printing presses. When something like this is so visible to a greater percent of the population and they load up on protection... it isn't really your 4 standard deviation event anymore. It isn't the Paulson bet, eclipsing the Soros bet breaking the bank of England in 1992. It seems even Boehner understands. Could it happen? Yes. If it does and you are a US citizen that isn't one of our clients, then burning the appropriate congressmen at the stake might also be a fun Fall activity.

Arnold, Sort of a Miller & Modigliani circular argument is it not? In Warren Buffett speak: be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful. Though quite the fan of Art, I have long advised against the Art allocation many of the wealthy are told to embrace. However, holding a non USD denominated Art with increasing international appeal is *not* a bad thing at the moment. The debt issue and topics like the 1 Trillion dollar coin are all interesting. It gets a double dose of fear mongering in the 24/7 media. Is it a black swan? Well, I can confidently say the 1% I deal with are very well hedged. It wouldn't be a John Paulson subprime mortgage sized bet for them, but they'd have a very _VERY_ good year.

By most of the 1980s, it was the Hozon and Tokubetsu Hozon system. The green papers of suspicion were largely from the late 1970s and the majority (or all) from non Tokyo branches of the NBTHK. Kunitaro-san or others can be more accurate in explaining. ~~~Also, as I've said before in another post a while back, the whole Fear The Green Papers thing often backfires with Kodogu. Sure, be cautious with signed big name pieces with green papers, but many a green papered 'Akasaka' or 'Nishigaki' tsuba now comes back with more specific ie Better attributions to Nidai Tadamasa, Sandai Tadatora, or Kanshiro. The full understanding and more papering of kodogu seems to have lagged swords by a few decades. Wakayama's 3 vol set didn't get published until the late 1970s. ~~~Sometimes it is absurd:In late 2009 a collection popped out of the woodwork with no ceremony at auction. All had old early 1970s green papers. The first round of Jingo & Hayashi went for penny on the USD because everyone hesitated. By the 3rd and 4th round Ito-san & others were slugging it out up to and past $10000 for some of the shodai, nidai, and a few other exceptional tsuba. Truly some unique and rare ones in there, but the initial green paper reaction kept everyone but the brave away the first round. Big name swords with green papers... yeah, pause. Kodogu is a different story for various reasons including economics and knowledge base of the 1970s.

+1

You are not kidding. Think that one met with a machine gun barrel and failed to live up to the mythology.

Got the print catalog too and see the Mancabelli lecture. Noted that several of the armor were formerly on display at the Fraiser Museum. Thought I recognized them. Looking forward to seeing them in person, if family life allows. There are several items where the photography is wanting a bit. ie. Either only 1 photo, or item is upside down, or only the back of the item is shown. Would recommend the on-line catalog over the print one.

Still trying to coordinate trip up to NYC with some other business & family responsibilities. Anyone going Sunday or Monday willing to take a look at that Naoe Shizu for me and tell me if there are any distinct problems/deal killers? Estimate on it seems low compared to what it would cost nowadays. That is what a decent TH one cost about 10 years ago.

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I am guessing a bit, but believe the Arkansas collector is probably a very alive and kicking man with one of the finest collections in the USA. An incredible signed ubu healthy straight to Tokubetsu Juyo (yes, such things exist... H, TH, J, TJ all on first try from non Japanese owner) probably went there recently- thus is easy to believe he is letting some go. He has that sort of collection, and his not alone in the USA. Do not know the Texas gentleman and can only guess the Florida gentleman or Florida couple is from north of here. However, I do not see some of the blades I know he(they) have. Therefore, I could be wrong. As a retirement state, many of our collectors are in their golden years.