Rivkin

I've been trying for a while now to develop a technique(s) to produce detailed images of nihonto and particularly grateful for the recent opportunity to work with a few tanto during the lecture and show held by Chris and Joe. Some really interesting works there! Yes, I will need to take out the background, but all other feedback on photos is appreciated. I really enjoyed seeing Uwe's images on my part. But my megalomaniac nature is such that I am also still looking for any possibility to take pictures (which others can use) of first class blades. Especially interested in Sukehiro, Kiyomaro, ko Bizen, Ichimonji. Working with Masamune or Sadamune always helps. Locations in Japan are most convenient, but despite some disadvantages of me leading a simple lecturer's life, especially the US, but also Europe are often visited. Kirill R. P.s. I've uploaded the images but I think they show much better in greater resolution. http://www.historyswords.com/1s.jpg http://www.historyswords.com/4s.jpg

Very interesting ! Puts my database-gathering script to shame. I was guessing from sales about third of swords offered have post-green NBTHK papers (greater portion on higher level, but the overall average number will be dominated by lower pieces). So the total number of swords can be around 0.6 million. Did you monitor against the same sword double counting on Juyo level? I think with 671 swords, it might be that I substantially undercounted the percentage of Juyo being up for sale. My estimate was about 50k (no double counting) nihonto sold in 10 years, which is roughly 8% of the total estimated from papers. If we are to assume about 800-900 Juyo sold, that's very close to also 8% of the total. Which might contradict my assumption that Juyo pieces would be held for a much more significant time period compared to lower grade swords. But then if we are to look at double counting, same sword being resold, it might actually be that we will see this far less on Juyo level. On the hunt - I feel many will answer yes. Yes on some of the favorite pieces not having great papers. Kirill R.

With DaVinci the paper trail going directly back to the artist's time is expected. For those lacking such there will be 20 pages of tests, discussions, comparisons of painting styles and paints used. And you will still always get disagreements in the end. For a Japanese sword there will be three lines describing its geometry+ and one line saying that Sensei saw it, and found indeed genuine and precious. Just an observation. Kirill R.

Coming back closer to the subject of the original posting with a very personal and erroneous take, I feel that a tremendous spread in European art is largely caused by institutional-government holders, which moved out of market the very best segment and even average-best segments. One Leonardo's oil, and very problematic at that, against 100 or so that are not for sale - essentially what is being offered is about or even below 1% of what exists. And even with this there are plenty of economics publications suggesting that the spread was helped in 1970s by influx of Japanese collectors, and in 2000s by the Gulf and Russians. Similar situation to some extent is seen in early Islamic blades historically nearly all taken to Constantinopol and still stored there, those Mamluk blades being sold for 300-500k a piece are a tiny portion that managed to fall through the cracks. If you manage to plunder Turkish government properties, Islamic market will be turbulent for decades. You look at Japanese paintings, there are some really good examples there, but the spread is actually very small. Small community of those interested, small institutional holdings. Japanese lacquer - aside from very old pieces from Nambokucho and a few 19th century names like Shibata Zenshin, 20k USD will be absolutely gorgeous top class work. With nihonto there are not that many 100k+ segment buyers. Most are in Japan. There is only miniscule influx of international presence in this segment from new economies (and old economies are generally speaking retreating from collecting). There are about twenty Russian collectors with serious European paintings in 200k-2mln range. There are probably only three serious nihonto blade collectors there. There is even greater ratio among the Gulf investors. Almost no interest at this level in India. Some in China, but I don't know Chinese market at all. I actually would not worry about 1000-2000$ segment of the market - there is a lot of it, true, but there is also a strong popular interest to support it. Tokuju I guess is also a kind of level where you are probably not going to see them going for sale many at once, and the very best pieces are still covered by strong Japanese economy. One thing I learned to kind of keep in mind with the very top pieces that in the worst possible scenario people take them to a local museum and still get at least the original purchase price taken off their income tax wise. That can set the very bottom valuation level. What I find somewhat bizarre is how few Juyo blades are being traded per year. And they are not hiding in the museums. Ok, antique market always has long time constants - price increasing or dropping by 20% simply does not alter supply-demand, instead you have generation-length waves and its normal to see just a small portion of high end market being traded at any given time. But I would actually be a little worried that one day people holding Juyo for life will start selling them more actively and you will see that international market is certainly not able to absorb them. There are really a lot of such blades out there. You look at their valuation in the past 20 years, and it definitely does not improve. So I do feel there is some potential for further price decrease there, and also for questions raised "how this came to be a Juyo" and "what exactly are the reasons it was attributed as Masamune?". One thing that helped the top segment of European market is that you have dealers, curators, academians fighting in public and it supposed to deliver catalog raisonne where the top pieces are all publicly vetted over the course of decade long exchanges. You don't have this kind of openness in Japanese scholarship. Kirill R.

.... but are not antiques markets supposed to have highly distorted supply because of prevalence of long term collections? Leonardo's very questionable oil goes for 0.5b only because there are virtually none in private hands. Most reasonably prolific painters have thousands of paintings in their name, a few even above 10 thousand. If not for museum storage we would not see very average impressionist works getting to a million dollar mark. There are simply not enough semi-serious collectors to absorb impressionist market which is actually about 100 thousand pieces altogether - out of which only about 1000-2000 are traded actively. There is an argument that before Napoleon art market was even more anemic as there was almost no offer and little demand. With Japanese blades there is clearly a huge distortion between the average holding time of a regular blade compared to tokuju. But then you don't have museums playing a large role. Almost all western museum blade collections are garbage that beginning collector with reasonable funds can outpace in a year. Japanese museums do control the very top segment to a significant extent but don't have tens of thousands of pieces in storage as do western institutions. So in case of really big upheaval I would still bet on impressionists coming down first. But in Japanese market the price levels of 1920s when kokuho could be had for the same price as decent Juyo today are not impossible. On the other hand, Juyo or even no papers whatsoever, the top level pieces in good condition are very rare. Very many of top paper blades are such because they are just really old, or have rare signatures, or simply no one knows why. There are Sadamune Juyo which are such only because the tanto's shape is Kamakura. If we are to see not 300 but all 8000 of Juyo being actively traded, a reverence for this paper will collapse and we will be back to individual per item based appraisals. On the other hand, there are simply not enough serious western collectors to absorb even the tokuju segment at their current prices. Yet one could argue that martial arts/anime segment will be large enough to still actively trade 1000$ blades. Kirill R.

Bryce, there is a greater problem at hand, which is that nihonto was a coveted collectible already in 1550. And for all the chaos of occupation, maybe around 1% of highest quality blades disappeared or went to the US at that moment, so even this event did not destabilize the market completely. So if you are going after something really good the question should be why it is not papered accordingly and does not have a verifiable daimyo history. Which brings you to the problems excellently covered in "Fake or Fortune" series. You basically either buy something that is papered on Juyo-Tokuju level for the money this type of blades command, or you are very arrogant and targeting blades that were probably at some point highly thought after, but recently someone got scared, or needed money fast, or had unwarranted issues when papering etc. etc.They can be absolutely top class things, but there is almost always something about them which is out of the ordinary and complicates appraisal. If you start in addition targeting unsigned shinto blades, you are running against a limited upside (Horikawa or Hankei at the very-very best and those examples are very much seldom encountered), with a lot of questionable examples floating around. There was really not a lot of valid reasons to produce an unsigned blade at the time, so likely you will be targeting uncommon quality cases involved in "attempted frauds". Plus how well can you judge by photographs etc. etc. etc. I would love to be offered real, but o-suriage, Sukehiro. But I am not sure such things exist in principle. It becomes kind of like Chagall, unsigned and cut-down from a much larger original painting. A highly theoretical possibility of such thing crossing your table. But on the bright side yes, you can buy shortened Naotane or mumei Kiyondo at a substantial discount compared to ubu signed version. You might find unsigned shinshinto a slightly more rewarding field actually. I personally feel there was a lot of crookery involved in Meiji period market. Signatures getting upgraded, prepared to be sold to the west, whole bunch of appraisers acting on behalf of shops, clubs, polishers, publishers, even universities and museums writing their appraisals. Complete chaos, but as a result you get probably a greater percentage of quality blades being unsigned. Kirill R.

Shinto steel and its typical dense itame are substantially different from gokaden and as such are a separate tradition. Yasutsugu, Sukehiro and even Owari Seki are each not 100% reflection of some koto school. Sometimes you see more Soden Bizen, sometimes direct continuation of late Mmuromachi Mino. Gokaden classification has its issues. It mixes artistic traditions (Soshu, Ichimonji) produced everywhere, with things produced in a specific province (Bizen, Mino). Omits some koto schools altogether (Hoki, Gassan), elevates some production centers (Mino) at expense of others (Uda). And it does not apply directly to shinto which has its own styles and schools. In shinto you do get some smiths that specialize on reproducing Soshu works, sometimes among other things, like Mishina making tanto in classic Soshu style. But otherwise the difference in styles is more along the lines of new groups that are formed at Kyoto, Osaka, Edo, Owari rather than Bizen versus Mino. Kirill R.

The very best koto blades could still be unsigned from the beginning, though there are competing opinions regarding exactly why. In Edo period you were supposed to be known by others personally as a smith, personally involved in comissions, most likely reside in some big city and definitely sign your blades. Unsigned good blades do exist, but they often suggest foul play, someone making mumei Hankei or Horikawa and passing them as Masamune. The second problem is that for all their quality, the works of many high end makers were copied so often and so reasonably well, the chances of them papering (and thus securing signature premium) without the signature itself are sort of nil. How many papered mumei Kotetsu, Sukehiro and Shinkai are out there? With the very best work you might have a chance, especially if its Kiyomaro, Hankei or Horikawa, but its a slim chance still. Again, assumption will be that someone took Kiyondo and tried to make it into Kiyomaro. So the commercial upside of unsigned late blades is strictly limited, while most of them are simply born bad. A rare exception is probably the best quality blade, likely made after some respected koto style. Kirill R.

I've been dealing with the seller for something like 10 years now. He sells first rate items, but just as easily he can take on a known fake. This one will not paper NBTHK Muramasa. Kirill R.

For the "functionality" argument, there is an observation. Nambokucho to Mid Muromachi Japanese sources are extremely rich in statisticss about how many people where killed-wounded by which weapon - as reports with these details where submitted with great frequency. At the time the greatest masters were nearly all producing tanto as their most valuable specialty. Some exclusively produced tanto and almost no daito. Yet the first soldier killed in battle with tanto is recorded only close to Onin war. Basically the entire Nambokucho not a single person was killed in battle with a tanto (another big surprise - naginata did not fare much better). Quite a few were drowned, stoned, burned, most were shot with arrows or chopped with swords. None killed with a tanto - which nevertheless was the most prized blade. So it must have been artistic from the very beginning. Europeans are practical. They produced grey, cheap, practical weapons. Kirill R.

That unfortunately will depend on the year in which NBTHK papers are issued. One of the issues with green papers is that in 1970s they would give a sword with Oei sugata papers to Masamune provided it was historically known as such and the features/quality where suggestive of such attribution. Justification sometimes was that sugata changes could have been gradual, with some production still done in conservative form, while other swords were already made in Nambokucho style. With so few period blades dated it is something that can be theoretically considered. Today's (post 2005) shinsa is scared of big names and any feature suggesting the blade is post 1345 with great likeness sends it to the lower tier. From Go you go to Tametsugu, or you can even get thrown all the way to Chogi. Which in turn is considered "lower" in part because until recently the best swords with such sugata would still be Masamune or Sadamune. And if it is as late as Oei sugata, then you are really "out of luck", since they simply don't have big Soshu names for the period - so even the first class blade (yes, they are quite rare with this shape) can be assigned "Naoe Shizu". Regarding Honami papers, pre Kachu generations are both seldom found and are a big boost to sword's price, but …. their scholarship is always a big question. Kirill R.

The question on why some smiths signed the blades and some did not is an interesting one, and my personal take is that it has to do with how production and weapon ownership was regulated under ritsuryo versus later systems. Bizen became important enough early on to directly pay taxes in kind to the central government and probably (Heian and Kamakura texts include almost no documents directly regarding the smiths) had some level of autonomy that most government-bonded and estate craftsmen did not. An artist is valued by 10% of his best work. Pre-modern craftsmen including famous painters, save hobbyists like Leonardo, all had to churn up a lot of good to average "school" work to keep them fed, and even Renoir accounts for 4000 paintings, out of which 3500 can be bought for under 200K each and are unoriginal (you see a lot of them in Japan and other post WWII collections), and about 100 will go upwards to 100 million. The problem in Japanese scholarship is that average works are typically taken from the master and given to later generations. In the past it was not unusual also to assign a prestigious name to a better piece with a simple argument that "X was very good and fully capable of copying the work that would normally pass as Y". The counter-problem is that there was a significant sugata change from Kamakura to Nambokucho - and because of that you constantly have clash of "experts", some papering much later pieces to Masamune based on their features and quality, while others insist on sugata-first approach and then in Kamakura Soshu there are simply no "small names" that one would send worse pieces to - the absolutely worst you can do money-wise is Norishige, which is obviously still one of the best names (and the one that is actually signed and dated). Another big issue is that Tenno, Ieyasu's and Toyotomi's items were never really reappraised, unlike weapons and art pieces of Europe which were all skeptically reevaluted between 1900 and 1950. So there are plenty of museum meito which are very strange for the names they carry. Kogarasumaru, Kusanagi, Fudo Masamune to name just a few, but the list is very long. Plus there was also a huge "realignment" of collection descriptions that happened between 1550 and 1650, at the end of which any decent Soshu work had a chance of being Masamune. Still nothing wrong with collecting gendai. Actually quite a few pieces there outshine the better shinshinto and even most Horikawa's work. I really appreciated an event hosted by Chris and Joe that had I feel couple of such tantos that were so good that one would probably have to go all the way to the heights of koto to find better ones - and even then the aesthetic would be so different, it is all debatable. There are books that claim that chokuto was the real pinnacle of Japanese craftsmanship (which I feel is very strange), there are some who really like ko-Bizen hada, others will argue that nothing beats Norishige's hada, which however aesthetically is absolutely the opposite of ko-Bizen, ko Aoe and the rest of the "dense" type. For myself it is all debatable, and not really "expert-enforceable". Kirill R.

Very-very personal and erroneous view. I would start by completely discarding "functionality" argument since it was never proven by anyone at all. Most Shinto blades have substantially less slag and smaller grain size compared to Kamakura masterpieces. It consistently comes up in analysis that compares the two. They also don't have fukure or ware 5 inch long, as some of the masterpieces. The whole argument about technological superiority, differential heat treatment and lamination making Japanese swords uniquely great was first advanced in late 1920s, 1930s - and according to it all swords in Shosoin were at the time re-classified as Japanese, since they all have these features. Regarding Bizen versus Soshu, how many first grade blades in great condition are out there? 200? maybe 100? Hasebe is a great name, but they produced many blades (big factory), including those having basically the crudest hada one can find. Their better works sort of "pull up" bad blades with this name one sees on sale every year. One seeks in Soshu something lying between Masamune/Sadamune and Hasebe/Hiromitsu/Akihiro, but also the best work in this category and in the best condition. It will look absolutely stunning. It will quite possibly have ware and maybe even fukure. There are quite a few who believe fukure to be kantei feature for Masamune (against say attribution to Norishige or Soshu Yukimitsu). And then most likely the blade one finds will be not be for sale for any money. Enjoy it for half an hour and go away. A major ware in Bizen is unusual, the quality is by far more consistent, the aesthetic is more repetative, can be less ambitious, with often not distinct hada, but great utsuri and impressive flame-like hamon. Soden Bizen can have both more ambitious hada and brighter ha, but it sort of style on its own, different from both Ichimonji and Masamune movements. With Yamashiro+ there is Shintogo Kunimitsu who is great, a few comparable other examples, ko Aoe can be impressive, but the rest are very hard to understand by people like me, tired, beaten up, simple, dim stuff that still makes it to Juyo and up. Especially in 1970s there were quire a few Rai, Mihara and the likes securing higher papers. One thing however - for all its supposed greatness, very few historically tried to repeat this style. Nosada was great in it, there is Hizen in Edo period, and almost no one to speak of in shinshinto or gendai. It had a very narrow window of popularity, at which point even Kyoto masters started to look first at Ichimonji and then to Soshu for inspiration. Kirill R.

Unfortunately I am a pontificator rather than hard worker in this aspect, especially with photographs like that. I would first start looking if there is a signature on nakago (looks like maybe there is?), and try to understand what it basically can be. How many characters, maybe deciphering one or two. For hamon+ in English Markus Sesko's koto kantei is a very interesting reference. Kirill R.

In most countries being a curator of Shosoin alone would absolutely forbid one from offering paid appraisals, save possible individual exceptions like being compensated for expert participation in a TV program. Kirill R.

... And the topic lives and lives. I think one of big caveats in answering this question is whether we are buying or selling. If you are selling in Japan, some will refuse to work with NTHK papers. But you can always put it through someone to auction or place it in a store that works with them, and until 10K USD it will sell. Probably with small penalty compared to modern NBTHK papers. Internationally, the penalty will be even smaller. So unless we deal with something expensive it is whatever papers are the cheapest or most likely to yield the attribution you want (which is largely a shamanic matter). If attribution is slam dank (for example, it is signed by average multi-generation smith with no lethal flows) - whatever is cheapest. The whole discussion about who is older, who is more popular, and who includes active dealers as shinsa judges is interesting but not strikingly important here. If we are buying than I see no way to make a definitive advice here. How much risk are you willing to take? What is your goal? Every collector develops over time a very personal system of "tells" which determine whether it is a buy or not. I would not touch anything sayagakied by Honami Koson with no papers. In my experience it all comes out as Shinto imitation. There are certain books, if it is published in one them I would almost certainly bid on it. No papers - good, less money to waste/. I am open to second-guess anything papered within past 2 decades to Uda by NBTHK since in my opinion it can be lazy-default judgement on non-canonical but possibly still high quality Soshu piece. Etc. But then I am not much of a collector. There are people who look at all of this as wasting time and money and playing lottery rather than buying good blades. They tend to collect tokujus. I strongly feel If one can follow this example, he will end up with mostly important blades. Kirill R.

Greg, the answer will differ from person to person. Two people walk into the same sword show come out with opposite experiences. Turns out they looked at different price levels, and then extrapolated differently what they saw. My very personal take is that in American segment when you sell, there is just no price level at which you loose by papering. You will have 1200$ tanto with papers sitting next to a somewhat better 900$ one - and the first one will likely sell faster. Even if its later generation of an average line, so there is no particular revelation in paper's context. One of the reasons is that the guy who buys the 900$ one will start running around the room asking people "how does it look?" and then someone will tell him there is hagire. Which papers are the best, which ones are to be believed - is a different can of worms. Hozon has distinction of currently being accepted at face value by all dealers. But any type of papers help, and in the US until you reach 10k and above the difference between papers' impact is small. There are obviously collecting areas where you will see people pulling out regularly 40k without any papers. But Nihonto world is quite not the same as any other weapon collectible though. A personal speculation - first and foremost it has about 10 times more participants than all other edged-antiques-based commercial markets combined. Second - say in Medieval European swords you have Academics, Curators and Dealers, and they all look at the subject somewhat differently. When these communities don't like each other that much, you sort of have competing points of view checking against each other. Nihonto was always 100% dealer dominated, with academic portion basically anemic, typically just dealers presenting themselves differently. Markus Sesko can be a significant exception and that carries a lot of potential. Good news with that you don't have bearded academians who live by mixing wikipedia with pretty pictures in exhibition catalogues but can't recognize an obvious fake. The level of "practical professionalism" in the community is quite high. Bad news no one gives the slightest damn about why Hojo's gifts where inscribed as such only in the 16th century, or what happened to the Tenno's collection in the 14th century, or how a knife maker in Kamakura can be descendant of Masamune unless the latter's son was Hiromitsu and then you might have a direct lineage through Tsunahiro. Add to this the fact that nihonto is not the passtime of upper classes by a long shot, and youget a range of behaviors. Cult-like "nihonto is the absolute steel", a battalion of titles "director and founder of ...", and well, why study it when you can paper it and then value it based on paper alone. Kirill R.

Not trying to be an expert, but it looks like a decent buy to me. Complete, made as a whole rather than assembled koshirae are never common. The blade is a regular example, but very often pretty Meiji tanto will have something like this. Were it from the last generation master it would be even more interesting for people like me - a sign that someone ordered a nice gift set sometime at the beginning of Meiji, both blade and koshirae (unlikely?). Sometimes there is a far greater difference in quality - Natsuo or Ichijo school mounts and a Meiji period fake. Congrats! Kirill R.

Not a tricky question at all. The blade is glassy looking with no attempt to emulate koto "things". Late production with very little hada-wise even were it in pristine condition. Polish - definite no. Papers - in the current market surprisingly things even of basic level do not sell without papers. Cheapest possible. The value is in koshirae mostly. Which is nice, the only thing I would be careful wiping it with too much water in winter since Meiji wood does not respond well to large changes in humidity or temperature. Kirill R.

Not trying to pass myself for an expert, but it does look Muromachi Bizen. With those the great financial question is simple - is it before or after 1480? If its later, unless we are dealing with Hikobei or Yosozaemon Sukesada it is unlikely to be worth much. And these two names are exceptionally rare and tend to be signed. So you can try to guess whether its their signature etc (unlikely?). If it does not look like typical Osafune signature underneath there, it is likely a post 1480 imitation which could have been done anywhere. You have all kinds of Mino people copying Bizen elements, you have something in Kaga, but it is not the same quality. If its pre 1475-1480, Osafune works from this period actually tend to be quite all right. Almost any name, and either of the two styles they used - suguha or ichimonji - can be very attractive. I would invest some time into looking how these "ichimonji" peaks look in detail (crab claws or not), which period the sugata matches the best etc. If it still looks like say 1410-1440, with me it would be a strong go polish-wise. Kirill R.

Later Edo generation is likely. Regarding the swordsmith. Kirill R.

Could easily be something like Mino Kanefusa sue koto. In general later tanto until bakumatsu-early showa I feel are seldom horribly bad. Kirill R.

The koshirae looks a good quality early Meiji or the very end of Edo work. There is damage, but that could be fixed. The blade appears to be in good condition, probably Shinto or later. Can't be said more without better pictures. An attractive package overall. "Was given" probably refers to a private citizen's gift. It is not state's level. Kirill R.

I am not with my library at the moment, but I own all three books - they are not that great on dragons. 金工美濃彫 and 美濃鐔随感 have couple of examples and that's it. The third one I remember less by heart, but I doubt it had more than couple of images. Sorry can't be more useful. Kirill R.

I think the first book will not be helpful since its mostly Tsuba. But even second and third will not cover this particular subject that well. Not really an expert, but I suspect this might not be Mino (too flat? hard to tell from a single picture) so a general work on kozuka+ can be a better guide. ko Mino texts tend to be more about their "floral" and "arabesque" motifs in my experience. Kirill Rivkin