Craig-
Looking at the extended kissaki and saki-zori alone, I would agree with your estimate that the blade is most like Edo period, specifically, early Shinto.
The flaws could be a result of significant polishing and/or rather lower quality work. WIthout a shot of the blade from the nakago-mune, we can't really tell if it has seen significant polishing.
The notare with ko-midare elements is fairly common and non-distinct. We really can't see any jigane or activity in the ji-ba from the photos so it is difficult to make any conclusive judgements regarding quality or provenance accurately.
I think it is safe to say that it is not Bizen, Yamashiro, Yamato, or Soshu work. That leaves us with Mino (or a derivative) or waki work like Takada, etc. I would guess it would fall into the waki catagory without further info.
I would note as well that the shirasaya is rather low quality. We usually don't find high quality work in low quality koshirae, whether shirasaya or standard. There are of course exceptions but this is a very serviceable rule of thumb.