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Posted
21 minutes ago, Alex A said:

Subjective, 

 

Have a lot of respect for those that really know these swords and the only way to know them is study them daily, not just one or two from a known smith, but many. 

 

Did ask a dealer in Japan once what the best blade blade he ever held was, expecting some Juyo candidate, was surprised with his answer and taught me a lesson.

 

That’s a really interesting perspective, and I completely agree – the only way to truly understand these swords is through constant study and comparing as many examples as possible.

 

I’m curious though – when you asked that dealer in Japan about the best blade he ever held, what was his answer? I’d really love to hear which sword left such a strong impression on him.

Posted
25 minutes ago, Alex A said:

Subjective, 

 

Have a lot of respect for those that really know these swords and the only way to know them is study them daily, not just one or two from a known smith, but many. 

 

Did ask a dealer in Japan once what the best blade blade he ever held was, expecting some Juyo candidate, was surprised with his answer and taught me a lesson.

 

 

On the edge of my seat, Alex: what was his answer?

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Posted

Well, he said he had been lucky and held countless masterpieces that left him in awe but did mention one sword in particular.

 

A wakizashi by Inoue Shinkai. 

 

He did go on to say that he doesn't collect swords but has a cheap tanto that holds a lot of memories, so i guess that was his favourite. Tired he said but the hamon was truly exquisite.  I cant name that smith but he is not up there with the best. I think owning a sword a long time that has memories makes them that bit more special.

 

I get that.

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Posted
1 minute ago, Alex A said:

Well, he said he had been lucky and held countless masterpieces that left him in awe but did mention one sword in particular.

 

A wakizashi by Inoue Shinkai. 

 

He did go on to say that he doesn't collect swords but has a cheap tanto that holds a lot of memories, so i guess that was his favourite. Tired he said but the hamon was truly exquisite.  I cant name that smith but he is not up there with the best. I think owning a sword a long time that has memories makes them that bit more special.

 

I get that.

Thanks for sharing. I get it as well. Sentimental value can't be discounted. There are some pieces in my collection that really don't fit anymore and logic dictates I should sell them to replenish the sword kitty. But I just can't bring myself to find them a new home because they carry memories. 

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Posted
5 hours ago, DENihontocollector said:
When compared to the roughly 2 million registered Japanese swords, this means:

 

  • About 0.5% achieve Jūyō status (≈ 1 in 200 swords).
  • About 0.05% achieve Tokubetsu Jūyō status (≈ 1 in 2,000 swords).

 

 
It makes me wonder: besides the strict quality criteria, could NBTHK deliberately keep these top levels scarce to preserve their prestige and value? If too many were awarded, the impact of the designation might diminish.
 
This scarcity could also explain why a sword might fail Jūyō in one year but pass in another — not necessarily because the blade changed, but because the NBTHK may control numbers to maintain selectivity from year to year.

Just a very side comment: when comparing against "2 million registered Japanese swords", keep in mind that not all persons have the money, ambition nor wish to submit blades for Juyo shinsa. There will be blades that would achieve Juyo, but are not submitted for Juyo - for whichever reason.

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Posted
5 hours ago, DENihontocollector said:
When compared to the roughly 2 million registered Japanese swords, this means:

 

  • About 0.5% achieve Jūyō status (≈ 1 in 200 swords).
  • About 0.05% achieve Tokubetsu Jūyō status (≈ 1 in 2,000 swords).

 

 
It makes me wonder: besides the strict quality criteria, could NBTHK deliberately keep these top levels scarce to preserve their prestige and value? If too many were awarded, the impact of the designation might diminish.
 
This scarcity could also explain why a sword might fail Jūyō in one year but pass in another — not necessarily because the blade changed, but because the NBTHK may control numbers to maintain selectivity from year to year.

Just a very side comment: when comparing against "2 million registered Japanese swords" against J and TJ, keep in mind that not all persons have the money, ambition nor wish to submit blades for shinsa, to NBTHK, etc.. There will be blades that would achieve J, but are not submitted for J - for whichever reason. It is a tad of unrelated to put these numbers in comparison.

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Posted
5 minutes ago, Promo said:

ust a very side comment: when comparing against "2 million registered Japanese swords", keep in mind that not all persons have the money, ambition nor wish to submit blades for Juyo shinsa. There will be blades that would achieve Juyo, but are not submitted for Juyo - for whichever reason.

That’s a very good and important point!

Of course, not every blade that might qualify for Juyō is ever submitted for shinsa – sometimes due to financial reasons, lack of interest from the owner, or simply because the blade remains in a private collection and never resurfaces. So the actual number of high‑level blades is likely higher than what is officially certified.

 

That said, the existing data still gives us a useful reference: we know how many blades are submitted each year and how many pass. From this, trends and approximate figures can be derived – not as an absolute truth, but as a guideline to understand just how rare Juyō, and especially Tokubetsu Juyō, pieces really are.

 

Posted

I'm sure there are many hundreds if not thousands of big name swords in 'noble' family collections that have been passed down through generations, not to mention important and not so important swords in museum collections, that don't have modern NBTHK papers at any level. Since they are unlikely to be sold the papers are unnecessary. Seems to me it's part academic and part marketing tool for anyone who cares to submit nihonto or tosogu. 

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Posted

I posted @Jussi Ekholm list. How much in % of all swords in public market he couldn't put there? How much can be in private collection which never surfaced?Those numbers are intetesting as He gathered less then 16k swords below jidai 1450.

Posted
24 minutes ago, Lewis B said:

I'm sure there are many hundreds if not thousands of big name swords in 'noble' family collections that have been passed down through generations, not to mention important and not so important swords in museum collections, that don't have modern NBTHK papers at any level. Since they are unlikely to be sold the papers are unnecessary. Seems to me it's part academic and part marketing tool for anyone who cares to submit nihonto or tosogu. 

 

Cant think of any other antique/art appraisal body that offers an appraisal that seems so highly regarded and relied upon. 

 

Seems a unique situation. Imagine how much sales would drop if a dealer just started using their own appraisal.

 

They offer reassurance and add value, though not necessary for many swords.

 

 

 

 

Posted
20 minutes ago, Alex A said:

 

Cant think of any other antique/art appraisal body that offers an appraisal that seems so highly regarded and relied upon. 

 

Seems a unique situation. Imagine how much sales would drop if a dealer just started using their own appraisal.

 

They offer reassurance and add value, though not necessary for many swords.

 

 

 

 

Same for the Fine Arts. Not sure if you watch Fake or Fortune but there was an interesting case of 2 Renoir's in the last episode. One was clearly suspicious (as the science uncovered) but the other of the child looked quite convincing. Neither of the 2 authenticating bodies were willing to include either painting in the Catalogue Raissoné. As a result what would have been worth half a million quid is only worth a couple thousand at best. The power of a stamp of approval. 

 

I'm pretty sure more significance and importance is placed on NBTHK papers by a Western buyer than a Japanese collector. We tend to value and demand affirmation. 

Posted

I am not convinced there is a critical mass of top-class blades out "there" just waiting to be submitted to shinsa or make their way to the marketplace. No doubt there are likely some, but I think the number is small and for good reason. 

 

Over the last decade, an enormous number of swords by or attributed to top-ranked smiths have been vacuumed out of the marketplace and from private holdings by mega-collectors with extremely deep pockets—people like Sawaguchi and Touken Corp. One has to wonder what’s really left.

 

A decade ago, you could log onto Japanese dealer sites—from the most exclusive to the most accessible—and see fresh, jaw-dropping pieces appear almost daily. Now? Many of those same dealers update their listings once a month, if that, and few of the swords they post have the same power to keep lustful collectors up at night.

 

There have been other threads on this board commenting on how great swords too often seem only to get offered privately to top clients, leaving mere mortals like us in the dust. And yes, the very best swords have always bypassed the open market, going straight to well-heeled collectors. But there used to be enough great pieces circulating that a good number would make their way to dealers, giving at least the illusion of an egalitarian marketplace—where anyone with the funds had a shot at a top-tier sword. Today, that feels far less true. As an obsessive site-surfer, I see fewer outstanding blades being offered publicly. Sure, good swords still appear now and then, but they’re exceptions rather than the rule. You hear rumors of the occasional masterpiece turning up in a farmhouse rafters, but I have never seen one.

 

So, what’s mostly left? As Darcy once called them, “commercial grade” swords: average-to-above-average late Muromachi, Shintō, and Shinshintō pieces. That's what I mostly see these days. I think when dealers do get good/great works today they hold them back for the DTI, and even then, a decade’s worth of DTI catalogues shows a noticeable decline in both quality and rarity. It's just the reality that I see.

 

What I wonder is will it ever return to the way it was? For most of the 20th century, top blades moved through the market as collections turned over with each new generation. But some collector-dealer friends now fear that tradition is also gone. My friends think that the new mega-collectors who’ve vacuumed up the most coveted pieces may hold them for decades, locking them away from the market entirely. I am hopeful that this won't prove to be true, but the evidence does seem to suggest the days of milk and honey may be behind us.

 

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Posted

Is there a tradition amongst big name Japanese collectors to bequeath their masterpieces to temples, institutions and museums like the Sano and NBTHK? That could certainly reduce the number hitting the open market. Since we like to consider ourselves as custodians for future generations, I would certainly think hard about doing that if I owned such treasures, especially living in the West. 

Posted

I totally agree with you Bobby
In the last few years, there has been a minimum of excellent blades available from dealers
And yes - there are definitely some excellent blades without Juyo/TJ papers hidden from public view somewhere in Japan
However, out of all the major book publications that contain over 3000 blades, there are only 294 that do not have Juyo or higher grades
Every year, a few hundred blades that did not have Torokusho "appear" in Japan and there may also be hidden treasures among them
But the total number of hidden gems will be far below the 1000 blades in my opinion

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Posted
17 minutes ago, Lewis B said:

Same for the Fine Arts. Not sure if you watch Fake or Fortune but there was an interesting case of 2 Renoir's in the last episode. One was clearly suspicious (as the science uncovered) but the other of the child looked quite convincing. Neither of the 2 authenticating bodies were willing to include either painting in the Catalogue Raissoné. As a result what would have been worth half a million quid is only worth a couple thousand at best. The power of a stamp of approval. 

 

I'm pretty sure more significance and importance is placed on NBTHK papers by a Western buyer than a Japanese collector. We tend to value and demand affirmation. 

 

I dunno Lewis, they have been appraising swords long before they became popular with the likes of us. I guess when it comes to money and parting with it, the Japanese are no different.

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Posted
Quote

The competition is in the blades themselves of the same smith or school

Again, without having attended a shinsa this is just speculation. What I want is proven fact. 

Posted

Bobby.

 

100% sure dealers have very wealthy reliable customers and a lot of swords are sold off the websites. Sometimes make it to websites but already sold. Did hear that a lot go off to China nowadays.

 

Had my suspicions here for years about certain desirable antiques being impossible to get a hold of.

 

 

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Posted
35 minutes ago, Jacques said:

Again, without having attended a shinsa this is just speculation. What I want is proven fact. 

Please define a proven fact
Do you want a specific person who submitted a blade for Juyo and the blade failed and then later asked again and the blade succeeded?
There are many - even on this forum

Posted

just wanted to add one more detail after reading some of the recent comments in this thread.

In my case, this Norinaga wasn’t something I bought through a public listing or dealer website – it was offered to me privately, “under the table,” so to speak. I was fortunate to be in the right place at the right time, and I felt the price was very fair considering the quality and history of the blade.

 

From what several of you have mentioned about how many top blades never make it onto the open market, it seems my experience is actually quite similar. Sometimes these opportunities only come along quietly, and I’m very grateful this one did.

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Posted

Coming back to the subject at hand, a work by Shikkake Norinaga: If I were you, Dennis, my goal would be to study the stuffing out of your blade, enjoy it for all it’s worth, and, if you really really love it, start thinking about an eventual upgrade — either to a longer blade, a signed example, or (my preference) a signed ubu piece of equal or better quality.

 

Looking at Jussi’s database, there are enough zaimei Norinaga examples out there that, given time, you should be able to find one with workmanship as good as — if not better than — yours, with the added benefit of a mei.

 

Whenever possible, I strive to collect signed pieces of the best quality that I can afford. Not that I have anything against mumei blades. On the contrary, two of my favorite pieces are unsigned works whose beauty is enough to bring me to tears. But there is something about a signed ubu work that moves and comforts me, and whenever possible I strive for these as long as the work is good. (Please don't just buy signatures or papers; the  quality should be there!) Of course, sometimes it's simply not feasible to buy great swords with nice work and a signature — either because zaimei examples are rare, or because the ones available would require selling your house and several family members (which I do not recommend). But if you’re patient and vigilant, I’m confident you’ll eventually be able to trade up to a zaimei Norinaga — cashing out the blade you have and covering what will likely be a reasonable difference.

 

The good thing about a smith like Norinaga is that while he’s very good and highly respected, he’s not on the level of a Mitsutada, Samonji, Norishige, one of the Awataguchi masters or other renowned famous makers. That makes upgrading a realistic and worthwhile goal IMHO.

 

Ultimately, upgrading our collections when feasible is something we should all strive for, while being sure to fully enjoy what we already are looking after. It’s a noble balancing act.

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Posted
1 hour ago, Jacques said:

Again, without having attended a shinsa this is just speculation. What I want is proven fact. 

Jacques, with all due respect, Darcy had access to the upper crust of the Honbu and was extremely close with Tanobe-sensei, who indeed has immense firsthand experience with shinsa, as well as all the quirks and inner workings of the organization. What Darcy was passing on to us in terms we could grasp is what he learned, what he saw and what he heard from reliable insiders. You don't have to believe it yourself, but unless you can disprove what he is saying with facts, which I have not seen from you on the subject, the observation seems logical if not perhaps a bit oversimplified. I appreciate your experience and many of your observations. They are often thought provoking and very right-brain observant. Any perspective that challenges me to question my own, I think, is a good thing. But denying a line of thinking just to deny it doesn't make you smart, it just makes you a contrarian.

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Posted
2 hours ago, Alex A said:

Bobby.

 

100% sure dealers have very wealthy reliable customers and a lot of swords are sold off the websites. Sometimes make it to websites but already sold. Did hear that a lot go off to China nowadays.

 

Had my suspicions here for years about certain desirable antiques being impossible to get a hold of.

 

 

Alex, I don't disagree at all, desirable works bypass the websites. No doubt. And yes, Chinese collectors as well as wealthy collectors from other parts of Asia, indeed are buying swords and account for some big new collections. Again, no doubt. What I am challenging is the concept of "a lot." All I am saying is that the elusive number is likely way less than we think and almost certainly way less than there use to be. I want to be wrong, but I don't think I am.

Peace,

Bobby

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Posted
20 minutes ago, Mushin said:

Coming back to the subject at hand, a work by Shikkake Norinaga

Hi Mushin,

 

Thank you so much for your thoughtful reply – I really appreciate it. I share your perspective completely: focusing on studying a blade deeply, enjoying it for what it is, and only considering an upgrade if the right opportunity and budget come together makes perfect sense to me.

 

I’m still relatively new to collecting, and in many ways I feel like I might have gotten a bit lucky with this sword. It resonates with me so strongly that I’ve even given it a personal name (I’ll keep that to myself for now – maybe I’ll share it later if anyone’s curious).

 

Your approach of only pursuing pieces you can truly afford and that speak to you on a personal level is exactly the mindset I want to follow as I continue learning. I’m sure, like you say, that with patience and careful study, the right opportunities will come.

 

Thanks again for sharing your experience and advice – it really helps newcomers like me put things into perspective.

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Posted
On 7/27/2025 at 5:07 PM, Tokaido said:

I would really love to see some closeups of hada and hamon on your sword. Yamato are my favourites;-)

Hi Andreas,

I’ve tried to capture the hada and hamon in photos. This is the best I can manage with my equipment, but hopefully they show a bit more detail than the initial pictures.

 

P1007267.JPG

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