Robert S

Thanks for that. I built a quick excel calculator using that math. Nerd, I know

What was interesting to me was the very low number of shinto blades passing - only 3. I don't know if this reflects what was submitted, or if it is a current style preference being reflected.

Rayhan: Wow, that's quite the journey! Thanks so much for illuminating the goals you set, and the problems they led to - it's extremely useful. I do think that those specific goals - looking to create a "complete" collection in some specific way, are perhaps unusual, so many others will make different mistakes. In addition to your general point - study deeply before you start buying, I would add "study deeply things that you are particularly attracted to, and know why you are attracted to them.", as well as "identify your own goals clearly, and understand what they imply". Based on that guidance, I think "save more, so that you can buy a really good example of what you love, and reduce the liklihood of losing money on it" is often, but not always, true. Understanding whether not losing money is important to you, and whether more expensive blades will better meet your goals, is a critical part of the journey. If the answer is "There's a $2,000 blade that just speaks to me, and I don't care how anyone else values it", then that's also a perfectly appropriate way to buy and cherish nihonto. Every one of these blades is unique, has its own story that we will mostly never know, and was made by a master craftsman, so every one is worthy of being appreciated and cherished!

The other way that I have heard "mono no aware" defined (and which I really like) is as "nostalgia for (or of) the future" - in other words, both the notion that everything that is now will only be nostalgic memories in the future, and further, that even the future can be subject of nostalgia now, since it too will be impermanent and fleeting.

100% agree. Or 3 figures

Hope you get better soon, Brian. Hospitals are never fun...

A fellow here where I live had made a few extra dollars (in construction) and wanted to build a boat. His wife said "not until you've bought these specific lots so that you can build more houses in the future".. The lots were on the waterfront in Vancouver BC . Today he's worth tens of millions. Some wives are worth more than their weight in gold .

I agree that it's entirely possible that things go as you suggest. But certainly at the Juyo level there seems to be a lot of uncertainty, depending on the session, the other swords presented, etc. TH may be less unpredictable, but even there. If it was completely predictable that would be an arbitrage, in financial terms - zero risk - and I don't believe that. Anyhow, I like low cost nihonto. For me, they're more of an adventure than a papered, signed blade.

That's a lot of conditional events. You could equally buy the blade, polish it, send it in for TH, and it doesn't pass. Now you're out way more than with the $900 blade. My philosophy is to be willing to lose the entire amount you spend, either because it doesn't hold value, or because you love it so much that you'll never sell it, and good luck to your estate!

On the other hand, if it really is the aesthetics of the blade that captivate you, it may be a $1500 blade that is "just right", even if you could afford $50K. It's not going to be "that name" with "that history"... but that's not always important. It may be something else entirely that is the goal of the purchase. My last blade was a sad little overpolished and belt sanded wakizashi for $150... and it's a wreck, but I'm learning lots from it, and will have fun making koshirae for it.

In my opinion, both of those blades are somewhat niche, which could impact ability to resell. You should be making a decision on what you love, without expectation of resale. If on the other hand resale is important to you, I'd look at more highly regarded schools and periods.

That tsuka looks to me to be much more recent - probably 20th century, and possibly even industrial steel. Pass.

I think one of the problems with hadori is not the technique itself, but the patience of the togishi. I've seen so many blades where the hamon was completely obscured by a hadori polish, which could have been done much better if way more time (and money) had been spent on it. For that reason I'm a fan of sashikomi - it's usually more true to what's in the steel, good or bad.

Sandpaper, and still pitting beyond the sanding. I have a sword like that, which is being restored. Based on the photos, this one doesn't look so tired that it can't be recovered, but like Chandler says, it would require a photo of the entire sword to have more idea of whether it is genuine, and how much life is left if genuine.