Wow, I just started collecting/studying and really disagree with the "treasure hunt" is over and now nihonto collecting is going to die with some generation. From the posts here the shows & prices have taken a hit, that's a real shocker ! Were in the worst economic downturn since the depression it's no mystery why the shows are slow. Have some faith because when the next dot.com or re-fi boom hits the people will be collecting again. I do agree that there simply isn't enough product to keep a large group interested a big problem for me (the new collector) is the only place to buy seems to be the internet and it would be foolish for me to do that since it takes years to gain enough experience to know what your really buying and I think most people with enough money to collect are smart enough to figure that out pretty quick. I almost went to the Chicago show but decided to wait for the SF show I do hope there are more than a few "rusty old blades" for sale there. All in all there are many reasons interest is falling off in the US but it may be better in the long run. It seems that in Japan they collect to collect not to treasure hunt they have brick & mortar stores that are in it for a profit but it has to be passion behind it or they would be out of buss. rather quickly. There may never be such shops in the U.S. but the next generations of U.S. collectors might take care of the young (educate,help and sometimes take a loss to keep someone involved) a tight knit community of honest passionate people can create a profitable (at least enough to keep it alive) rewarding hobby. I come from a racing background which is much more expensive than nihonto and the young blood helped keep us older guys in it. We trained em, encouraged them and never burned em or laughed at them for there lack of skill/money or equipment. We sold em are used stuff at huge losses so we could pay or at least supplement are addiction. The racing industry has no shortage of new product for sale. When I was coming up guys gave me a lot & in turn I ended giving it all back plus more. If you only collect to gain money then your right the end is here.
Larry