Swords leaving Japan

[MassiveMoonHeh]

According to a mate in Japan the Japanese Sword community in Japan they are starting to get concerned that so many high quality Japanese swords are leaving Japan.

 

I could not find any official numbers but found a 2025 tweet that cited a steady increase of Japanese Swords exported overseas for the following years:

 

Reiwa 1 (2019): 3,500  

Reiwa 2 (2020): 2,800  

Reiwa 3 (2021): 3,800  

Reiwa 4 (2022): 5,400  

Reiwa 5 (2023): 6,900  

Reiwa 6 (2024): 8,900  

Reiwa 7 (2025): 

Reiwa 8 (2026): 

 

Every year, the numbers have been steadily rising. Would suggest 2025 was well over 10,000 swords and this year I would suggest is expected to exceed 13,000 pieces.

 

Even with growing attention on Japanese swords in Japan, and the original Touken Ranbu fans turning 30 there has not been enough interest to keep swords in Japan... but interest from the international community is climbing. Seeing the incredible value of picking up a centuries old sword for a few thousand bucks thanks to the weak Japanese Yen and economy. It seems absurd. 

 

With a slow local community Japanese sword shops are starting to target this growing market. More websites offering English versions. Aoi-Art the largest Japanese Auction Site seeing more and more foreign buyers prepared to pay for good products.

 

Whilst the Japanese watch from the sidelines. Prices climb but the international buyers are only just waking up to what is on offer.

 

The irony is that as prices rise so will interest from outside of Japan grow even faster.

 

This flywheel is starting to turn and soon Japan, like France and Italy will see their national treasures scattered across collections and museums around the world.

 

Short of banning swords leaving their shores this movement of swords appears to be very hard to stop.

[Takezo]

I have really enjoyed your forum topics as of late @MassiveMoonHeh.

 

Yes, it is becoming an apparent thing and Tsuruta has commented on how difficult it has become to find truly great swords as time marches on. I would say overall, even from just a few years ago, that Aoi Art's general offerings have a lower percentage of fine to outstanding swords, especially if you want to factor in "a good deal" on those categories. Myself, I definitely have seen this era of the low JPY as a buying opportunity and have taken (and will continue to) advantage of that, but I also consider myself a trustworthy caretaker. I have to imagine that some of the swords going out overseas will end up damaged and not taken care of, but to be fair, this also happens in Japan. One of the better things Japan could do to facilitate movement back to their shores is streamline the importation process of swords back into their country. Nobody really wants to wait or risk a sword sitting in a warehouse for months after sweating over international shipping etc., at least I don't. I really do think it would help if they had a better process for this though, as it would make commerce easier and we could sell and trade pieces back into Japan. Honestly the only reason I sell/trade swords here in the USA is because of the hassle/time taken getting them back into Japan. If it weren't for that I would have just sent my swords back to their homeland.

Edited Saturday at 10:55 PM by Takezo

[Hokke]

If those numbers are't official and based on a "tweet", I would be weary of their accuracy; after all there are tweets that claim the end of world and sightings of ghosts and skin walkers. What I do know is that dealers would certainly love for people to think that nihonto are flying out the door at an alarming rate and their values climbing everyday......fantastic way to make the consumer feel like they better jump on that bandwagon and get them now before they are unaffordable. 

I dont know if its true, absent any official numbers, but if those numbers are ever released, id be curious to see what they are for this year, 2026. Since it's likely that the majority of sales are US based, it would be interesting to see what kind of dent, if any, the tariffs have made on purchases. I know that I, personally have passed on several blades, strictly because the tariffs overvalue the item, coupled with increased thefts in shipping. I have zero plans to purchase any nihonto coming out of Japan or anywhere else where a tariff is applied based solely on principle. 

 

 

[Takezo]

Does the tariff overvalue the item though? Between 2016 and 2019, 5 million JPY was worth approximately $44,000 to $47,500 USD. Today that would be $32,861 USD. Even if you pay 10% tariff, that is only $32,861 + $3286.10, so $36,147.10. That is still $10k under what you would have paid. Now, whether that 5m JPY sword in 2019 has been inflated in price to now is another story, but given the scenario it had not, the 10% doesn't matter at all. Also, as far as I know, tariffs have been taken away for these items again. I just imported from Japan an expensive sword and paid $150 from UPS.

Edited Saturday at 11:22 PM by Takezo

[MassiveMoonHeh]

1 hour ago, Hokke said:

If those numbers are't official and based on a "tweet"

To be fair I did not select some random person to reference the numbers. 

 

They come from the former director of the Japanese Sword Museum, Yasunori Sawada.

[Katsujinken]

I remember exchanging some messages with Darcy during one his last trips to Japan, and he lamented the increasing difficulty of finding top level swords. There are only so many. 
 

And it’s also not just the US market waking up. Folks in China have caught the nihonto bug in a big, big way. More than the US, I’d say, if I had to bet on it (at least in terms of money spent). 
 

At the end of the day though, this is still a Japanese industry. Relationships matter a lot. Having the money to buy something doesn’t mean you can buy it, even if it is conceivably for sale. 

[Hokke]

23 minutes ago, MassiveMoonHeh said:

To be fair I did not select some random person to reference the numbers. 

 

They come from the former director of the Japanese Sword Museum, Yasunori Sawada.

I understand, I guess all I was saying is that whether its a dealer or a former director of a museum, the numbers dont have as much value as those released by someone in the office responsible for issuing export licenses. 

[Hokke]

1 hour ago, Takezo said:

Does the tariff overvalue the item though? Between 2016 and 2019, 5 million JPY was worth approximately $44,000 to $47,500 USD. Today that would be $32,861 USD. Even if you pay 10% tariff, that is only $32,861 + $3286.10, so $36,147.10. That is still $10k under what you would have paid. Now, whether that 5m JPY sword in 2019 has been inflated in price to now is another story, but given the scenario it had not, the 10% doesn't matter at all. Also, as far as I know, tariffs have been taken away for these items again. I just imported from Japan an expensive sword and paid $150 from UPS.

When I said over valued, I was speaking specifically to each individual item. Say a sword is priced as 10K and I believe thats a fair price. If you add in 15% that quickly turns into 11.5k. For me, 11.5 is over valued for that particular piece. So I admit this is based on personal perception, but I have yet to run into such a crazy good deal that even with the tariff and shipping I felt like the value was right. Hence my curiosity if real numbers are ever released for sales in 2026.

As for tariffs, if something has changed in the past month so, that could be, but I made tsuba purchases in June and July and still payed the tariff through FedEx.

[MassiveMoonHeh]

44 minutes ago, Katsujinken said:

At the end of the day though, this is still a Japanese industry. Relationships matter a lot. Having the money to buy something doesn’t mean you can buy it, even if it is conceivably for sale. 

Just as they did in France and Italy back in the day. Two countries with very similar ideas, thinking and culture for craft as Japan.

 

What I am seeing is the same pattern more foreign resellers are moving in building these difficult relationships and moving the swords out of the country.

 

As such this is becoming more of an issue of the past. You might struggle if you are fresh off the boat but the local resellers want to make money and they are dealing with foreign resellers more and more as they know that they have the means to pay more.

 

The foreign buyer is moving in and money does talk.

[Tetsu]

3 hours ago, Takezo said:

I have really enjoyed your forum topics as of late @MassiveMoonHeh.

...

One of the better things Japan could do to facilitate movement back to their shores is streamline the importation process of swords back into their country.

...

Repatriation needs to be very simple process.  No fees, no questions asked.  Just send to <this Tokyo address>, no return address required.  As much as I love the next generation of my family, I don't yet have confidence they will continue the chain of caretaker custody.  I would rather that some of my possessions be gifted to a Japanese dealer than donated to the cold rusty basement of some US museum, or sold cheaply to some Reddit redneck who sharpens his Chinese-made Nihonto with an emery cloth. 

 

Japanese people can and should have a voice regarding export of their culture, aside from at or above Jūyō-Bijutsuhin, which itself is negotiable.  Some Japanese people are of the opinion that the best way to preserved their culture is through a worldwide diaspora, while others believe that every time an antique is lost from their soil, part of their cultural identity is also lost.

 

For many dealers Japanese dealers, their primary motivation is money, and foreign buyers are often able to out-compete Japanese buyers due to the weakened yen.  Its the opposite of what happened in the 80's, when many quality blades were repatriated to Japan during the bubble economy. 

 

I first visited the Samurai Museum in Shinjuku in 2016 and saw a tanto for sale in a display case in the merch section near the entrance.  The thought of being able to purchase "priceless" antiques never left me, and is the reason I'm here.  It was (and will probably remain) the last child-like wonderment day of my life.  I bought a few items from them post-COVID, they included thank-you notes regarding my help keeping their museum open during the lockdown...now they only sell online, they seem to have abandoned the concept of their museum for tourists.  https://www.samuraimuseum.jp/en/

 

The only thing stopping a larger flood of antiques leaving the country (by would be buyers) is knowledge.  Social media has already contributed to "paradise lost" of many hobbies, its just a matter of time before more buyers find out about what is possible, and what they're missing out on.  Prices will climb to reflect the increasing demand by foreigners, and Japanese might find it increasingly hard to retain or repatriate their own culture. 

 

The same pattern has happened countless times in the past, popular word-of-mouth tourist destinations and hobbies are now overrun.  The native peoples of Hawaii once found themselves priced out of their own lands by Japanese buyers, who led a sneak attack on Pearl Harbor a single generation prior.  Empires fall, irony happens, and everything will eventually go full circle.

[eternal_newbie]

5 hours ago, Tetsu said:

than donated to the cold rusty basement of some US museum

 

Or, sadly, some Japanese museum. The simple fact is that most museums, unless they are dedicated to swords, weapons or Samurai culture in general, just don't have the funds to employ a full-time caretaker versed in the proper maintenance and handling of precious nihonto. And the ones that do will often have a large inventory of blades that simply never see the light of day because display space is limited and there's only so many days in a year.

[eternal_newbie]

7 hours ago, Tetsu said:

Japanese people can and should have a voice regarding export of their culture, aside from at or above Jūyō-Bijutsuhin, which itself is negotiable.  Some Japanese people are of the opinion that the best way to preserved their culture is through a worldwide diaspora, while others believe that every time an antique is lost from their soil, part of their cultural identity is also lost.

 

Interestingly, there's a similar dynamic with Japanese budo, particularly the koryu (old styles). Much of the conversation today focuses on appropriation/adulteration by foreigners, fearing that the essence of these styles is being lost by spreading them outside their original context in Japan; however back in the early decades following the war this was actually encouraged as a form of cultural preservation – the idea being that, as long as budo was valued overseas, no foreign power would ever try to stamp it out again like the Allies tried to post-WWII.

[Tetsu]

1 hour ago, eternal_newbie said:

 

Or, sadly, some Japanese museum. The simple fact is that most museums, unless they are dedicated to swords, weapons or Samurai culture in general, just don't have the funds to employ a full-time caretaker versed in the proper maintenance and handling of precious nihonto. And the ones that do will often have a large inventory of blades that simply never see the light of day because display space is limited and there's only so many days in a year.

Part of the need for constant maintenance of the past stemmed the use of plant based oils, which will themselves eventually oxidize (i.e. go rancid) and lose their protective effect and/or attract moisture.  Even modern oils intended for Nihonto contain small amounts of choji oil for tradition and pleasant smell.  Tsuruta-san recommends skipping choji based oils in favor of pure synthetic oils which don't break down over time (i.e. don't oxidize and need maintenance).

 

In principle, storage itself shouldn't be a problem, provided the humidity isn't high enough to cause condensation during changes in temperature, and high quality (non deteriorating) synthetic oil is used.  But the meta point remains, Nihonto are meant to be displayed, handled, and enjoyed, not stuffed away in some box for years on end.  That which is stored indefinitely does not exist, its the same as throwing something in the trash.

[Tetsu]

29 minutes ago, eternal_newbie said:

 

Interestingly, there's a similar dynamic with Japanese budo, particularly the koryu (old styles). Much of the conversation today focuses on appropriation/adulteration by foreigners, fearing that the essence of these styles is being lost by spreading them outside their original context in Japan; however back in the early decades following the war this was actually encouraged as a form of cultural preservation – the idea being that, as long as budo was valued overseas, no foreign power would ever try to stamp it out again like the Allies tried to post-WWII.

When I see Joe Rogan plop a sword on the table and brag about it being a real Samurai sword, I can wholeheartedly agree cultural context has been lost.  The name of the smith, the school, the era, the type of blade, the sugata in relation to time period, conversation of jigane and nie, all lost to a single summarization of "real Samurai sword."  I don't think anyone would be too offended if it were a Hozon, TH maybe, but Juyo...you have a responsibility at that point.

 

Mike Yamasaki is the expert usually called in on the US TV show Pawn Star videos.  In his own shop he's able to provide context, but in the show, the producers don't allow anything but casual explanations.  I saw the following video of him allowing a casual westerner to handle a Masume in Japan, and got very nervous as there were 2 blades on the table (I had bad thoughts of a blade being accidentally dropped on the other).  In either case, he was able to provide more cultural context in the setting. 

 

[Hoshi]

Hi, 

 

These numbers are accurate, but the alarm of the original poster is not warranted in my opinion. 

 

I am Swiss, and we're not seeking out all of the historical Kokuho-grade Patek Philipps and treasured watches to bring them back "home" - they are enjoyed and collected by a worldwide diaspora, to the benefit of the community of people who appreciate the finest forms of watchmaking. They too are "part of my culture" (they symbolize our deep cultural appreciation for timeliness and precision) but I am proud that old masterpiece watches are widely appreciated across the entire world, and still worn on wrists today. This contributes to their aura and appreciation, and ultimately market value combined with knowledgable collectors is the best protections out there. 

 

As for the USD/JPY, Tariffs, etc - I am zen about it. I've bought blades at 1:100, 1:120, 1:40, 1:60, now 1:50 back, and so on. It doesn't matter much to me. I am in this for the long run, some items will be purchased at an unfavorable forex level or tax regime, so be it. Think of it as averaging into buying a stock, except you're averaging into it over a lifetime of collecting. In my experience, by counting pennies and trying to jump on the things that look cheap, well, this is where mistakes happen. And when visiting an old foreign collection, there are few things more depressing than uncovering a trove of Juyo blades from the 70's that are "juyo in name only", but the owner has pride in his eyes because he's all too happy to tell you that "he got them cheap for Juyo". There is a reason for the price, there always is. And this makes me sad, but it is perfectly understandable that without knowledge and experience, when you shop online, you may be uniquely sensitive to the price-to-maker ratio per cm, and while it's a valid and true heuristic, it's only one side of the story. This is why the best adage is to buy what you like and study deeply, not to buy what you think is cheap. 

 

It's one of the major reasons I'm not showing sold prices in NW and I'm investing so much effort into learning resources such as the Kantei game and the library (with more to come). 

 

Sending swords back to Japan is easy, I do it often. Personally I like to carry them there, but I've also sent my fair share. It takes a few more days for the paperwork to clear, and as long as it goes through Narita, it's a weekly procedure and it works absolutely fine. In Haneda, be prepared to wait as the procedure only happens once a month. The reality however is that you won't get as good a price as you would selling in the Western market, where there is an important (and deserving) premium for availability, proximity, relationship, second day delivery (no waiting 6 weeks for the permit), shipping risk mitigation, and so on. This can of course change as a result of forex fluctuation, such are the tides of the market. 

 

It is very true that great blades are becoming rarer and rarer and this is an issue for every dealer in the field. Two things are happening at the same time, there is price pressure from rarity, and there is price pressure from the dealers who add on top a forex premium for the cheap JPY, but beyond that it's difficult to tease the contribution of each precisely unless the JPY rises back to historical levels. 

 

Remember that building a collection is akin to tending to a Bonzai garden, the most important virtue are patience and love of learning.

 

Over time, one discovers that much of the pleasure lies in the waiting. 

 

I hope this helps, 

 

Hoshi

[Lewis B]

15 minutes ago, Hoshi said:

 

Remember that building a collection is akin to tending to a Bonzai garden, the most important virtue are patience and love of learning.

 

Over time, one discovers that much of the pleasure lies in the waiting. 

 

 

I second that sentiment. I have my eyes on a very special sword, one I held in hand years ago. An offer will be made when the timing is right which isn't quite yet. I need to buy a house in France first. Priorities, right

[Mark S.]

This is my opinion only and not based on any anything other than that… a great number of blades ARE leaving Japan.  A great number of GREAT blades are not.  Those types of blades come up very rarely and are quietly kept within a very small discerning group of Japanese collectors.  Except for an elite few… foreigners are not in that ‘club’.

[Tetsu]

6 hours ago, Hoshi said:

I am Swiss, and we're not seeking out all of the historical Kokuho-grade Patek Philipps and treasured watches to bring them back "home" - they are enjoyed and collected by a worldwide diaspora, to the benefit of the community of people who appreciate the finest forms of watchmaking. They too are "part of my culture" (they symbolize our deep cultural appreciation for timeliness and precision) but I am proud that old masterpiece watches are widely appreciated across the entire world, and still worn on wrists today. This contributes to their aura and appreciation, and ultimately market value combined with knowledgable collectors is the best protections out there. 

 

As for the USD/JPY, Tariffs, etc - I am zen about it. I've bought blades at 1:100, 1:120, 1:40, 1:60, now 1:50 back, and so on. It doesn't matter much to me. I am in this for the long run, some items will be purchased at an unfavorable forex level or tax regime, so be it.

I selfishly appreciate your perspective towards preservation by an appreciative diaspora. Given enough time, its not "if" but "when" art collections will be destroyed in natural disasters, looted (Iraq Mesopotamian museums, 2001), and in some cases, neglected.

 

The current Japan -> US 10% tariff is something similar to sales tax - something I'm not fond of, but a minor factor in the purchasing decision.  When it was at 25%, it was definitely a factor of consideration for me.  Tariffs on antiques is nonsensical, the point of a tariff is to encourage the economy, employment, and reduce trade deficits.  No country is able to go back in time and produce Kamakura period swords or speed the passage of time. 

 

The Japanese demographic is shrinking, leaving some families without heirs to family swords and collections.  The quantity of mid-range swords on the market may be a function of this, with demographic changes shifting sales in favor of exports over the next few decades.