Paper level for big names / attribution

[klee]

Good Evening 

 

How do the high end collectors generally read into big names attached to mid level papers ?

 

The 2 examples I see right now that jump out is the Den Go thats been talked about before 

 

https://www.aoijapan.com/katana-：mumei-unsigned-den-gonbthk-tokubetsu-hozon-token/

 

And a Shintogo Kunimitsu tachi 

 

https://eirakudo.shop/105943

 

With both big names having only TokuHo, is it reasonable to assume that both blades stayed at TokuHo due to the high probability of them being re-attributed to a lesser name if it went Juyo ? And is there definitive right or wrong path for an owner to take ? i.e try for Juyo or leave it at TokuHo

 

Thank you for any insight as im not familiar with the general politics in the papering side when it comes to titanic names 

 

-Kevin

 

[Robert S]

Or with those names, going from TokuHo to Juyo simply wouldn't provide any increase in value.  In cases like these I suspect the value's in the name, not the paper.

[Julien]

Since Jūyō shinsa operates differently and is significantly more expensive than Hozon or Tokubetsu Hozon, it can sometimes feel somewhat unpredictable. If a session is particularly strong, with many exceptional blades submitted, the competition becomes very intense, and a blade may fail to pass if it does not stand out even among already outstanding works. So, it may not pass the first time, but could be resubmitted a second, third time... As a result, the process can be quite time/cost consuming for dealers.
And as Robert pointed out, if the name and attribution stand out already, it can be enough, even without Jūyō papers or above... 

Edited Tuesday at 03:31 AM by Julien

[Jussi Ekholm]

I am almost as far away from high end collector as you can be but I have spent lot of time with Jūyō data. First of all as a disclaimer I have to say I don't really like either of the swords.

 

The den Gō should in my mind be a slam dunk for Jūyō - Date family ownership, excellent polish, Kanzan Sayagaki, Tanobe Sayagaki. Still every year I know that items that are in my mind bound to pass fail, and some other items that are unimpressive to me pass. The mumei Shintōgo Kunimitsu katana just passed Tokubetsu Hozon in 2025. Now take the following what I will write with a big grain of salt but I have sometimes really felt that way, just as a disclaimer I am not quality focused collector but historical.

 

If you throw away the NBTHK papers attributing to Shintōgo Kunimitsu, would you pay 7,500,000 yen for that mumei sword? In my own opinion the NBTHK attribution sometimes carry too large value but market works how it works. Of course the fine workmanship of Shintōgo can not really be seen in few pictures. Still if I saw that mumei sword looking like it looks on the pictures I would just skip it without really even second thoughts about it, even if the price would be extremely lower than it currently is.

 

I know it is a controversial take but hopefully it can get the discussion going. 

[Hoshi]

Hello, 

 

Delicate questions.

 

In general, I recommend staying clear from recent TH papers to big names if you cannot assess it in hand and with sufficient experience studying higher level designations for said master. 

 

If this is not possible, only go in after having it appraised by someone who can hold it in hand, and has such experience. This is the value that a trusted dealer or collector friend brings. 

 

The reason for this is that the Shinsa panel is in a succession phase where it has to invest into new judges and ensure proper knowledge transmission - and this is a bumpy road. I has been so for a few years, let's see what happens at the upcoming Tokuju Shinsa. The last session had some eyebrow raising anomalies. For pieces attributed to Awataguchi Hisakuni, Shintogo Kunimitsu daito, Go Yoshihiro, Masamune without historical kiwame  a respected Hon'ami judge or an entry into the Kanto Hibisho, it is quite delicate at the moment. I would even be exercise caution right now with zaimei pieces. With this wide caveat in place, there are still incredible pieces that can surface from time to time. 

 

Value wise, every tier of paper de-risks the object, that's all it does, the object does not change, and it is this de-risking that drives market perception and creates the price premium.

 

If I'm a dealer and I tell you I have one of the best Nagamitsu, and it's sitting at TH, and I ask you 40 million yen for it, you're going to think I'm crazy. 

 

You won't believe me unless you have the knowledge to truly and deeply assess it, in relation to the corpus, and come up with your own conclusion that it is, in fact, one of the best extant Nagamitsu.

 

Now if I tell you it passed Juyo session 3, then Tokuju session 6, all of a sudden it's a different story probabilistically speaking it is very likely amongst the ultimate blades extant. Sure, it might be the 'lesser' of the series, but these sessions contained an incredible density of treasures and on average, they contained more peak works. Advanced collectors know this, and dealers too, forming common knowledge around these heuristics. 

 

On the other hand, if you're one of the most experienced collectors in Japan, and you've "seen it all" - you look at the blade and you just know.

 

You don't need the Juyo or Tokuju paper, you know what's out there, you've experienced most of it, you've been in the circles. You're ready to pay 40 million JPY in a blink for that blade sitting as a TH Nagamitsu. What's the value of his top blades? It's price = n/a. And the dealer might be very relieved you recognized it as such, and happy to sell it to you, because time is money and waiting for submission cycles is financially painful. He will put you into his serious client book, and propose you more such pieces in the future. 

 

If by miracle you get handed to you a zaimei Hisakuni tanto with denrai to the Imperial family -at Hozon- in good condition, it will be millions of dollars, and now the paradox kicks in that the buyer will be even happier as it's a secret blade that isn't recorded anywhere as some collectors just enjoy the secrecy a lot. 

 

This can help - for artists you follow, as you're looking for comparables out there, check out NW's artist database: https://nihontowatch.com/artists/nagamitsu-NAG281

 

Just be careful out there, if it looks like it's too good to be true, it probably is. 

 

I hope this helps, 

 

Hoshi 

 

[klee]

@Jussi Ekholm, @Hoshi

 

Thank you so much for the insight as always 🙏🙏🙏

 

My interests are similar to Jussi as I favor schools that produce rustic/stout blades. The sort of blades that would be considered " lacking elegance" and "artistic value" 😅

 

 

I dont think I will ever reach the level of ever considering blades at these price levels but intricacies and nuances when evaluating such blades will always fascinate me. I am very grateful to have knowledgable forum members for whenever these questions eat away at me.

 

Thank you again 🙏

 

[Jussi Ekholm]

Chris wrote excellent post and information like that will take some time to process. It is actually quite complicated stuff.

 

I was giving an introductory into Japanese swords during the weekend, and I briefly mentioned about the difficulties in looking at prices as there can be so much variation that is very hard to understand. This does happen at all levels, not just at high end. Sometimes it can be really difficult to say why one sword is listed at 500,000 yen and another one for 700,000 yen. I was about to dig up some reference example where the same seller has listed blades from the same school at various price points. As a fun fact I have recorded Aoi Art selling 46 different mumei Ko-Mihara blades. 

 

Here are 3 blades from my cherished northern Hōju school that all have been listed at Eirakudo and all papered as Tokubetsu Hozon by NBTHK, and all are in shirasaya so koshirae does not complicate things. As a fun fact N. 1 & 3 have also been at other dealers at different price point.

 

1: Tachi 78,1 cm : 2,000,000 yen : https://eirakudo.shop/token/wakizashi/detail/368087

2: Katana 79,1 cm : 2,600,000 yen : https://eirakudo.shop/806442

3: Katana 72,8 cm : 1,300,000 yen : https://eirakudo.shop/099872

 

If all items were equally priced I would pick them in order 3,2,1.

 

I do like the number 3 most because of the strong shape. It has the strong Nanbokuchō profile that I like. I think the description for this one is good and there are of course some rougher areas on the blade that don't look that nice. There is one bit nasty delamination in kissaki that pop ups a bit, I could live with stuff like that but for many it might be annoying. Number 3 has also appeared on Samurai Museum for roughly 1,800,000 yen https://www.samuraimuseum.jp/shop/product/antique-Japanese-sword-katana-unsigned-hojyu-nbthk-tokubetsu-hozon-certificate-2/ and at Winners for price unknown to me https://www.winners-auction.jp/productDetail/99960

 

2 is the most expensive one and one that I have not yet seen anywhere else, it is recent 2025 Tokubetsu Hozon. This one has long length of 79,1 cm and in the sales ad it is mentioned this is ō-suriage. Long supposedly ō-suriage blades like this are always making my brain hurt. As then this would be an ōdachi originally and to me this does not really have the general vibe that ōdachi have. This is quite narrow sword in profile with little curvature. I know there is a hole at the bottom of the nakago but in my mind I see the middle most likely area for the original hole, so I would just see this as suriage sword and not ō-suriage. I would see this being bit similar to sword number one and both being late Kamakura period tachi originally. I am just comparing because I do have plenty of reference Hōju tachi that are in 80 to 88 cm range. I could very well see this being bit over 80 cm originally but struggle to see something like 95 cm. This does seem to have best polish of the bunch and most details are visible compared to other 2. To my eye sword also seems to be of the best quality out of all 3, the forging seems much finer than on other two. Even though you can see the pattern well it is still well made. I know Hōju often gets touted off as rough looking but Tokyo National Museum has Hōju tachi that has very fine forging.

 

Number 1 is a decent tachi. I just can't personally see it desirable at this price point. Of course I have looked at Hōju tachi for probably over 10 years now and seen many nice ones pop up to market and going usually rather fast. I don't agree with the age estimate that is written on shirasaya and what sword shop also states 元暦 (Genryaku was 1184-85). I don't think this is late Heian - early Kamakura sword. In my opinion this is rather late Kamakura - early Nanbokuchō sword. I know that Hōju swords get often touted as really early ones, however as I have done research on them I believe there are only extremely few of the that actually date to early Kamakura. The one that I believe would be the perhaps the oldest one is the Jūyō Bunkazai tachi of Seikadō Bunko Art Museum (unfortunately haven't seen that one in person yet). The majority of Hōju school works are from late Kamakura period to early Muromachi period. I do think in the pictures this looks "hazy" and bit difficult to see the details. This tachi was later at Aoi Art and was listed for 1,200,000 yen https://www.aoijapan.com/tachi-mumei-attributed-to-hoju-nbthk-tokubetsu-hozon-token/ unfortunately Aoi now removes their listings (I can totally understand why they do it but it is too bad for saving information). Even though this is ubu tachi and in general I cherish original size, I just can't see myself liking this sword a lot. 

 

Now this is just a one opinion and other people might feel totally different and that is the fun part of the hobby. We don't need to like the same stuff. I think number 2 is the best item out of the bunch, number 1 closest to original, number 3 is the lowest in quality but to me best in form.

[klee]

Some great examples @Jussi Ekholm

 

#2 would def take the top spot for me with size and a beautiful boshi but I do agree that #3 has the best shape but Im also fairly biased towards okissaki.

 

I havent seen many Hoju come around but they do catch my eyes whenever I see one. Has that perfect rustic feel with a wild feeling jigane.

 

What was it that made it your favorite school ?

[Sukaira]

I tend to agree with Robert. Hoshi also brings the nuance into light. When I was at Seiyudo last month they let me take out literally every sword in the store to inspect it. I was there picking up two fairly pricey swords so I think that’s why they invited me to do so. Anyway, they have a Ryokai there that is not listed on the site that they are planning to submit to Juyo and I want to say they told me it was currently around $60k. I asked them if the Juyo paper would increase the price they would sell it for and they said maybe, maybe not. I guess they were implying they would test the market at that time. Like Hoshi said, the paper just allows the market to potentially drive the price up since it’s gone through another level of scrutiny. All that being said, yeah some of these swords are just priced in already. Also what Julien said, two swords could be separated by a slight degree during judging and one wins out over the other. The sword might be important but this other one is more important at the moment. The owner or dealer doesn’t want to go through time and effort again etc. Doesn’t mean it isn’t Juyo, just means it hasn’t been granted it yet, and they just price it at Juyo. But smith name also doesn’t guarantee Juyo. Maybe it never will go. Just because it’s a Shintogo doesn’t mean it’s “important” to NBTHK in an absolute sense.