Introducing NihontoWatch: The Entire Market in Your Pocket

[Hoshi]

Hi, 

 

Thank you for the report. It's fixed. 

 

This was a data bug - this item was retrieved a long time ago, in a period where the classifiers were more prone to errors on certificate detection. The original text states: A blade of similar character appears among the 65th Jūyō Tōken designated works. This is what caused the confusion. Today the classifiers are much more resilient to such assertions. 

 

Choshuya's people are wonderful and kind, on top of it - they often have excellent items at more than a fair price.

 

It comes at the cost of their website being a digital IQ test for foreigners and I lack words to describe just how difficult it is to extract meaningful, up to date structured data from it. 

 

All the best, 

 

Hoshi

[George KN]

I've got to say, this is a really smart looking site! Super useful, thank you 

[The Blacksmith]

What an absolutely fantastic app, thank you so much for your time and efforts on our behalf. Even though I am sadly not in the market for buying, there is just so much to take in here and drool over. It is an amazing resource indeed. Thank you Hoshi.

 

Darcy would be extremely proud indeed!

[Takezo]

@Hoshi have been using your site every day since it launched. Really great stuff. I am a software engineer myself so I appreciate having a modern implementation to use on our ancient hobby

 

I did notice some bugs with classification of some smith ranks, like Yasumitsu for example being rated as Saijo-saku plus some others. Sorry if that's been reported already.

[Hoshi]

Hi @Sukaira,

 

Thanks for the report, it helps. It will be fixed shortly. 

 

Let me know if you see any other anomalies in the data, feel free to shoot me PMs or reply to the thread, whatever is more convenient. 

 

Glad you're enjoying NW! Can you think of any feature you wish existed? 

 

Best,

 

Hoshi 

[Sebuh]

@Hoshi

Sorry to budge in here, when your asking someone else for feedback.

I was wondering if it'd be possible to add an area somewhere on an Artist's profile that can highlight their works average sale/sell price? sort of like stock prices? it could be a pretty good idea when looking how much smiths sell for at the Hozon, TH, and Juyo and beyond. Though I understand there are variables such as big names, only having Hozon and being hundreds of thousands. 

This is really just a rough outline of an idea, if this is something that intrests you I could try thinking more into it. 

Thanks,

[Hoshi]

Dear Sebuh,

 

I'm sympathetic to the request, but I'm convinced a feature like this would cause more harm than good to the community — let me explain why.

 

The root problem is that quality isn't a legible characteristic through dealer photos. Paper levels are the best proxy we have, but they're a coarse one. Within a single designation, there are "barely Juyo" Norishige and "Tokuju-in-waiting" Norishige, and in Japan those are completely different items value-wise. The overseas market tends to get offered the "barely Juyo" tier with open price, because the "Tokuju-in-waiting" pieces get deemed "too expensive for Juyo" by Western buyers and stay in Japan or are marked as "ask". So the average Juyo Norishige price an aggregator like this would surface is already a biased signal.

 

It doesn't reflect the artist's realized market price, it reflects items that make it online with a revealed asking price. 

 

The deeper concern is what happens once that metric exists. Collectors will (rationally) optimize against the legible signal: lowest possible price-to-name ratio. That, in turn, creates an incentive for dealers to source cheaper and cheaper items attributed to master smiths (rationally). We've already seen a flood of big names with recent TH papers at prices that feel too good to be true, and the uncomfortable answer is that they're too good to be true. The market is responding to exactly the pressure this kind of metric would amplify.

 

I think the better direction is to help prospective buyers understand what constitutes truly great work within an artist's oeuvre, so quality becomes more legible, not just price-per-name. How to do this, however, is not so obvious, but I have some ideas down the line. 

 

Hope this helps, 

 

Hoshi

[Sebuh]

27 minutes ago, Hoshi said:

Dear Sebuh,

 

I'm sympathetic to the request, but I'm convinced a feature like this would cause more harm than good to the community — let me explain why.

 

The root problem is that quality isn't a legible characteristic through dealer photos. Paper levels are the best proxy we have, but they're a coarse one. Within a single designation, there are "barely Juyo" Norishige and "Tokuju-in-waiting" Norishige, and in Japan those are completely different items value-wise. The overseas market tends to get offered the "barely Juyo" tier with open price, because the "Tokuju-in-waiting" pieces get deemed "too expensive for Juyo" by Western buyers and stay in Japan or are marked as "ask". So the average Juyo Norishige price an aggregator like this would surface is already a biased signal.

 

It doesn't reflect the artist's realized market price, it reflects items that make it online with a revealed asking price. 

 

The deeper concern is what happens once that metric exists. Collectors will (rationally) optimize against the legible signal: lowest possible price-to-name ratio. That, in turn, creates an incentive for dealers to source cheaper and cheaper items attributed to master smiths (rationally). We've already seen a flood of big names with recent TH papers at prices that feel too good to be true, and the uncomfortable answer is that they're not too good to be true. The market is responding to exactly the pressure this kind of metric would amplify.

 

I think the better direction is to help prospective buyers understand what constitutes truly great work within an artist's oeuvre, so quality becomes more legible, not just price-per-name. How to do this, however, is not so obvious, but I have some ideas down the line. 

 

Hope this helps, 

 

Hoshi

Got it! I thought the same, but thought to throw it out there.

Use the site daily and love looking at new improvements 

 

Thanks for everything!

[eternal_newbie]

Here's one the that initially seems like bugged AI but turns out to be the fault of the seller using copy&paste from other listings: #328540 (https://ginza.choshuya.co.jp/sale/gj/r8/007/00_norishige.htm).

 

It's an 1836 naginata by Taikei Naotane described in the overview as a gakumei Norishige wakizashi (the in-depth description is correct) made in Kanbun (??). I've seen a few other similar oddities on the seller's website.

[Hoshi]

Good grace @eternal_newbie

 

You're fast. 

 

I just saw it and fixed it.

 

The seller copy/pasted their past listing for their gakumei Norishige, mislabelling the item, and this caused utter confusion in the classification system. 

 

Thanks for the report. 

 

Best,

 

Hoshi

[Toryu2020]

I wonder is Tozando on your list of sellers?

 

https://japanesesword.net/collections/antique-Japanese-sword-katana

[Hoshi]

Dear Thomas, 

 

Yes, Tozando is a verified seller. 

 

Here is the link to Tozando: https://nihontowatch.com/?tab=available&dealer=101&sort=recent

 

Since there are now way too many dealers for a dropdown menu selection, I suggest you use the textbox under dealer in the side panel filter. There, you can select the specific dealer. 

 

 

All the best, 

 

Hoshi

 

 

[tosogu_eu]

On 2/18/2026 at 5:53 PM, Hoshi said:

Hello everyone,

 

TLDR: Interested in Japanese swords and fittings? I made this to help the field.

 

Open nihontowatch.com on your phone browser, and add to home screen (Share → Add to Home Screen). Thank me later.

 

 

 

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

I have been thinking for quite some time about the future of our field.

 

I have been blessed with incredible mentors and opportunities, most notably the late Darcy Brockbank, who was so generous in sharing his knowledge. Since his tragic passing, I have felt a responsibility to carry that work forward. What I am about to present, I built as an homage to his memory.

 

Our field has problems.

 

We operate in a field of extraordinary depth without being equipped with the knowledge and tools to understand what we're looking at when we browse the market. Refreshing dozens of dealer websites every week, most in Japanese, copy-pasting listings into translation apps, pinching to zoom on sites built twenty years ago — market awareness is just painful and you miss things constantly. You spend an hour and walk away unsure you have seen everything.

 

And this is just the market experience.

 

The deeper problem is access to knowledge.

 

There are no catalogues raisonnés for artists. Yuhindo would have grown into it — it was planned. But alas, Yuhindo is no more.

No way to know, with any confidence, whether a price is reasonable without decades of experience or tens of thousands of dollars invested in published references. No way to know why something costs what it does. Communication with Japanese dealers remains daunting for most. No easy way to know who is a reputable dealer. The barrier to entry is simply too high, and this friction keeps our field artificially small.

 

Fine art has Artnet. Watches have Chrono24. Antiquarian books have AbeBooks — markets with comparable depth and comparable opacity, served by platforms that bring transparency and accessibility. These fields have benefited immensely: they have enabled new entrants in droves to collect in confidence. Our field needs more knowledge and transparency to build interest and trust.Japanese swords and fittings.

 

Eight hundred years of collecting history at the highest levels. The category that contains the most national treasures in Japan. The indefatigable search for perfection of an entire civilization.

 

And yet, we have nothing.

 

This had to change.

 

As I write this, there are 3,021 Nihonto and 1,607 Tosogu items for sale across 44 dealers, Japanese and international, in a single searchable interface. Every listing is structured with attribution, certification, measurements, and artist intelligence data. NihontoWatch is on track to follow 100% of the online market for genuine items with NBTHK papers.

 

Refreshed 12 times a day.

 

Everything is translated and structured, as it trickles in live.

 

But what is this worth, if it's so hard to know what you're looking at? Especially for newcomers, it is so hard to tell what you're looking at. 

 

This is where the magic is.

 

I am nostalgic of reading through Yuhindo's artist descriptions. It made me deeply appreciate the field. It got me in.

 

NihontoWatch scales this experience and creates something approaching a living catalogue raisonné for every Tosogu and Nihonto artist. It matches every listing against a database combining the complete Juyo, Tokubetsu Juyo, Juyo bunkazai, Kokuho, and Gyobutsu designation data — over 23,000 items at the highest level, with rich text in classical Japanese. This data is then processed, synthesized, and presented into NihontoWatch's artist directory in a way that is respectful of the NBTHK's copyright. With this, you'll be able to discover a maker's historical reputation through quantitative analysis of exhaustive provenance records, in ways never seen before. 

 

Over time, all of these artist pages will come alive, forming an ever-expanding knowledge base. 

 

- How rare is it?

- How many Tokuju?

- How many designated works ranked Juyo and above? 

- Why is this important?
- Where does it rank relative to other works?

- What is for sale right now?

- What was for sale recently?

 

All the answers are in.

 

These are questions that come up constantly in our community, and until now, answering them required years of collecting published references worth tens of thousands of dollars, and patiently indexing them with post-its or one-by-one in a spreadsheet. Only professional dealers or major collectors could afford to do this.

 

This is a BETA, so there are errors. The more obscure the artist, the higher the error rate, and there are still basic errors I need to fix with some famous artists. A lot of algorithmic tinkering and curation ahead. It will keep getting better with your feedback.

 

See the results for yourselves:

- Soshu Masamune: https://nihontowatch.com/artists/masamune-MAS590
- Ichimonji school: https://nihontowatch.com/artists/NS-Ichimonji
- Yasuchika (tosogu): https://nihontowatch.com/artists/yasuchika-TSU001
- Goto school: https://nihontowatch.com/artists/NS-Goto

 

Click one and explore the designations, the provenance abalysis, the measurement distributions. This is just a first shot — over time this data will grow.

Here is one where I have published an item I studied for my Substack article on Mitsutada:

 

- Osafune Mitsutada: https://nihontowatch.com/artists/mitsutada-MIT281

 

Imagine Yuhindo, but with a page for every artist and every piece ever captured on camera. Saw a national treasure at an exhibition in Japan? Share your photos on NihontoWatch's artist catalogue. In the future, owners of particular works will be able to publish them to the artist's catalogue. Think of it as a growing, community-curated knowledge base for every artist in the field.

 

And so much more

 

Browse and filter: Designation, dealer, item type, school, province — all filterable, all instant. Prices display in JPY, USD, or EUR.  Every filter combination is a shareable URL. The sold archive tracks thousands of items for pricing research.

 

And it works for every budget, for collectors at every level.

 

- All Tokubetsu Juyo Nihonto on the market
- All Tsuba with Hozon or Tokubetsu Hozon, maximum price $2,000

 

Setsumei translations: On some items, you can press the floating book icon on any Juyo item to toggle between photos and the Juyo setsumei translated text. For most Juyo and above items, the NBTHK evaluation text from the dealer's page is identified by computer vision and translated into English. It will fail if the dealer has not posted the Juyo Zufu extract, but in the majority of cases they do, and the result is remarkably accurate. Do use responsibly — the quality is great, but not perfect. Always purchase professional translation from Markus Sesko when contemplating the purchase of a Juyo-designated piece.

 

Search alerts: Never miss an item again. Define keywords and filters and save them. NihontoWatch will run your search every 15 minutes, and when something new appears, immediately send you an alert email. In practice, missing a listing that fits your interests becomes almost impossible.

 

Tip: I recommend avoiding overly specific queries. "Juyo tsuba" or "Kamakura signed tachi" are safer than specific artists such as "Yozozaemon Sukesada," which would be more fickle. Broad queries give you the best market coverage.

 

Inquiry emails: Press "Inquire" on any listing to draft a professional inquiry in Japanese. Handles etiquette and formality, and can help you request the 10% consumption tax exemption available to overseas buyers. Did you even know you could get 10% off? How many new entrants lost 10% on this, at least at the beginning? I for one did. I've seen countless high spenders neglect to request it while shopping across Japanese galleries.

 

Glossary: The technical language of Nihonto and Tosogu is deep and specialized — needlessly so for non-Japanese speakers. Anytime a technical term comes up, you can click and see what it means. Over 1,200 terms, searchable, automatically linked from the setsumei translations. Who remembers always keeping an index open to keep track of terms when studying Juyo items?

 

https://nihontowatch.com/glossary

 

How best to use NihontoWatch

 

While it works wonders on desktop, NihontoWatch works most beautifully on your phone. I use it every day — it feels like I have the market in my pocket.

 

Open nihontowatch.com on your phone, hit Share → Add to Home Screen. 

 

And voila, you have an app. 

 

 

It becomes something you check with your morning coffee, the way one might check the news.

 

 

A word of caution

The data has errors — always verify independently. This is a tool to explore the market, not a substitute for critical thinking. If it looks too good to be true, it likely is, and this system can't easily correct online misrepresentations. Old listings where dealers have not marked items as "SOLD" will still appear as available. Listing errors will slip through, but data quality improves continuously as the system learns over time.

 

Get involved

- Missing a listing or dealer you like? PM me or post here.
- Bug? PM me or post here with steps to reproduce.
- Dream feature request? Reply in this thread.

 

I will keep this thread active and share major updates when time permits.

Everything is free right now, and will remain so until ready for official release. This is no trivial task, and it is expensive to operate — it will need to be covered in some way down the line.

 

It will be tempting to keep it for yourself. But if we want our field to grow, we must share knowledge and expand market access and transparency. The single most impactful thing you can do right now is help others discover and use the tool.

 

Share it with your study group.

Share it with your collecting circle.

Share it with a friend who has been curious about Nihonto and Tosogu but found the barrier to entry too high.

That barrier just got a lot lower.

 

Farewell, Darcy. This is for the teacher in you.

 

Hoshi

 

 

 

Really cool idea and a great tool indeed. Thanks so much hoshi! 

 

Its so important that we lower barriers and help people to access these beautiful topics of nihonto and tosogu.

 

This is my little contribution, still a lot of work todo and a complete different approach. But maybe some will find it helpful.

 

https://tosogu.eu/

 

Best, Alex

[PNSSHOGUN]

Getting these popups every few days despite being logged in:

 

[Hoshi]

Dear @PNSSHOGUN,

 

Oh my. Thank you for letting me know, this is clearly a bug. I will investigate. 

 

Best,

 

Hoshi 

[Hoshi]

Quote

Getting these popups every few days despite being logged in:

 

This is now fixed, thanks again for the report. 

[PNSSHOGUN]

Some feedback on the recent UI changes; it's now somewhat challenging to view/open multiple listings as you can't right click a tile listing in a new tab with view item button removed. Additionally, the link to the item page and sellers site is tucked away below the contact dealer and watch item options. 

 

Would you consider moving the item and dealer links to a more prominent position, or changing the properties of the tiles to allow opening in a new window? 

 

 

[Hoshi]

Hi, 

 

Much appreciated report, this is an oversight in a major update that made it through, half-baked. 

 

"Contact seller" is now replaced with "Visit dealer site" 

 

Question for feedback: What is missing on the NW page that is present on the dealer page, which adds to the study process? What more would you like to see? 

 

 

And thank you for the swift report, 

 

Hoshi

 

 

 

[eternal_newbie]

37 minutes ago, Hoshi said:

"Contact seller" is now replaced with "Visit dealer site" 

 

Better, but still requires clicking on the item, waiting for the next page to load, clicking "Visit seller website" and then going back to the search page to look at other items. Previously we were able to open the listing without navigating away from the search results by right clicking on a found sword and "Open link in new tab" - now the only part of a result tile that allows this is the information about the smith/school. Having this option would probably reduce traffic/hosting costs on your end, as we now have to reload the search results every time we want to look at a result in detail.

[Hoshi]

Hi, 

 

Yes, there is a large update underway which calls for a change in architecture, the quick popups don't really work well for this. 

 

Transition times like these with many updates in a row can be a little turbulent, this is why I so much appreciate the quick feedback I get here when something is off. Keep it coming. 

 

Best,

 

Hoshi

[Takezo]

On 7/1/2026 at 5:06 AM, eternal_newbie said:

 

Better, but still requires clicking on the item, waiting for the next page to load, clicking "Visit seller website" and then going back to the search page to look at other items. Previously we were able to open the listing without navigating away from the search results by right clicking on a found sword and "Open link in new tab" - now the only part of a result tile that allows this is the information about the smith/school. Having this option would probably reduce traffic/hosting costs on your end, as we now have to reload the search results every time we want to look at a result in detail.

I generally agree...this version feels heavier, slower and is way more tedious. The pop over window was great, it felt lightweight and was quick. In addition to what was already said about navigating away and back being less than ideal, (or having to do the old tried and true - open in new tab trick) the massive wall of info next to the squeezed pictures is too much. The best UX is one that gets things out of the way of the user, reducing friction. This definitely introduced more.

Edited July 2 by Takezo

[Hoshi]

Hi, 

 

I much appreciate the feedback. 

 

I am working on lightening the text, make the pictures overall more central, and make it feel much snappier and responsive. 

 

In the meantime the bug that interfered with "open a new tab via right click" has been fixed. Good catch. 

 

 

Best,

 

Hoshi

 

 

 

[Hoshi]

Hello, 

 

Rejoice everyone, the beloved speed is back.

 

I found the technical solution 

 

Keep pointing out things that matter for you, the faster the better. 

 

Best,

 

Hoshi

 

 

[eternal_newbie]

Great work, thank you

[PNSSHOGUN]

If you could implement that link property change to the old style of tiles everything would be perfect.  

[WillFalstaff]

Wow! Drop off from the forum for a few months and look what I've been missing! Great Job, Hoshi!

[Takezo]

This feels way better, you improved the pop over and it feels lightweight again  - keep tweaking it

[Tetsu]

This is absolutely amazing @Hoshi, thank you so much for democratizing Nihontowatch to the community.  Visiting multiple dealer sites (assuming we knew they existed in the first place) is a chore most of us will not miss, and a big time saver.

[Hoshi]

Hello everyone, 

 

Big news! We are nearing the release of the V1, scheduled for August 17th. 

 

The "Beta" tag will be going away in a few days. After six long months of near daily improvements and development, I feel like we've earned it. What began as a small seed experiment has now grown into a promising young Bonzai worth nurturing.

 

NihontoWatch has been a labor of love, something I always yearned for. I like to think of it as zen garden, where you can go and study the Samurai Arts market, presented beautifully on a modern platform, and deeply contextualized far beyond what information dealers make available. You can learn about their markers, influence, schools, and much more through the item itself. A digital museum and gallery at the same time. All of this, at your pace, during downtime, anywhere, anytime, on any device, and across language barriers.

 

A deeper part of me always believe that Samurai Arts truly deserves a better market with more accessible knowledge. It is a such a deeply enchanting field replete with truly magnificent objects, be it nihonto, tosogu, or armor. It is also a form of human expression unlike all others, conjured at the junction of the functional imperatives of the battlefield and the aesthetic currents of eastern philosophical and martial traditions.

 

But it is under-appreciated. It’s fair to say that it is extremely difficult to study, especially for a foreign audience. Reliable information is hard to come by, not to mention to all the traps out there that are inherent to the art market where serious money is involved. When a curious beginner has a poor experience, they simply leave the field and conclude it’s not for them. First experiences matter a lot.

 

It’s a problem many larger arts and collectible fields have faced. Unlike ours, other markets are large enough that pouring development resources into them is a worthwhile business endeavor. Trading cards, fine watches, wines, paintings, musical instrument, etc, all benefit from impressive market aggregator and trading platforms.

 

Samurai Arts, in the other-hand, leaves us meandering over the web on decade old websites all fragmented across linguistic barriers. To keep an eye on the market, it’s 80+ tabs in a browser, one for every dealer, and with many adding new stock every week, it’s simply impossible to follow. It’s also difficult figure out why something is priced the way it is, or to know who to trust for that matter.

 

It can take decades before you know and understand what you’re looking at. As a result, mistakes naturally follow, and the market remains impenetrable for newcomers. Collectors need is more accessible knowledge, more price transparency, comparables analysis, and better security when making a purchase. Dealers, in turn, need more collectors to inspect their items and draw new customers, as well as an easier way to establish trust with new entrants.

 

NihontoWatch today: 

• Tracks 88 dealers all over the world and indexes more than 29’000 items accross nihonto, tosogu, and armor, with 10’000+ currently for sale. Every item is deeply enriched with data on the artist and his school.
• Connects listings with comparable items (same artist, same school, same tradition) directly when examining an item. This means you can easily explore the styles of a certain school, compare prices and traits.
• Provides collectors with a comprehensive encyclopedia of the field with with 1752 artists and 144 schools documented and connected to the items. With hundreds of artists with comprehensive profile pages built from the latest knowledge in the field drawn directly from the latest NBHTK’s publications. 
• You can search for specific makers, item types, dealers, schools, sub-schools, and phases of a school precisely. This means you can type various technical terms such as “Ko-Aoe tachi“ and it will surface all tachi attributed to Aoe smiths of the Ko-Aoe phase of the Aoe school.
• You can follow specific artists, schools, or search queries and setup alerts that sends notifications straight to your email within 15 minutes of the item being discovered. This is especially useful when 60% of collector interest happens in the first 48 hours of an item appearing on the market. Items either sell fast, or stale for a while on the market. 

 

All of this, as you can imagine, is expensive to run. NihontoWatch has been my night job for the past half year, and while it has been a labor of love in a field I deeply care for, it has taken its toil financially. The infrastructure runs in the four figures a month to support the load, and It has to have a commercial component to stand the test of time and be there for all of us tomorrow. I believe there is no silver bullet here, and it will need to be a combination of collectors and dealers chipping in. 

 

With that said, if possible, I'd like to be able to keep the vast majority of it free for everyone: 

•   Browsing the entire market. Every listing, every detail page, search, filters, currency conversion.
•   The encyclopedia. Every artist and school profile, lineages, designation records, the
•   glossary. This is the field's public record, and I believe it should stay open.
•   Saved searches, follows, and email alerts.
•   The weekly digest

What membership adds:

 

From August 17th, the free feed will refresh every 48 hours: new listings enter free browsing, search, and alerts about two days after we first spot them. Members stay on the continuous feed, seeing new listings an receiving alerts the moment an item is discovered. This means that if you're actively participating on the market and looking to get these rare gems first, this is the membership for you. If you are actively buying items on the market, and have ever lost a piece you had waited years for because someone else placed it on HOLD before you could make a move, you know what those 48 hours are worth.

 

If you are simply here to window-gaze and study, I want the site to remain genuinely good and free for you.

 

As a bonus, Members also get access to the private collection vault for cataloguing their own pieces. This lets you catalogue your collection in great detail in your own private gallery. It's packed with useful features, such as generating compliant insurance reports, and much more. 

 

Membership is $99 a year, which works out to 8.25$/mo. One price, billed yearly. It renews automatically and you can cancel anytime from your profile. 

 

To everyone who used the site during the beta, reported bugs, voiced your concerns about changes you didn't like, flagged bad data, and wrote to me with ideas: thank you!

 

If you have thoughts on any of this, I read everything here. Feel free to drop me a PM. 

 

See you on the Watch

 

-Hoshi

[eternal_newbie]

Congratulations are in order for having come so far in so (relatively) short a time. I shall be hoping for the site's success and waiting in line for my own subscription.