How does one determine value?

[obiwanknabbe]

As a new collector, I am very curious about just how to determine the relative dollar value of a particular sword? In other areas of collecting, such as coins or stamps, there exist price guides like the Red book. Is there any such tool for Nihonto collectors.

 

I know that Hawley has a point system, and that Fujishiro used a (sword="X" yen) approach to rating certain smiths, but how do we equate this into fair market value of a particular blade (or at least come close to ball-parking it), especially if it is an unrated smith or unsigned piece?

 

In short, how does a professional, or anyone, determine that sword "X" is worth selling price "Y"? Is it a simple "its worth what your willing to pay" paradigm or is there a more scientific approach to making that call to avoid getting burned?

 

Thanks to all

 

Kurt.K

[Bruno]

A popular answer here is how much the buyer is willing to pay his sword which determines its value.

[hxv]

Kurt,

 

It's a tough question. For me personally, it ultimately comes down to "how much am I willing to pay?" Generally, one can look at various dealers' websites on a regular basis (window shopping). They will give you an idea of the average price for a particular type of sword/condition/paper level. As I get more and more involved in my study, I find that I want a sword made in a particular tradition from a particular jidai, and if possible, by a particular smith. When it gets down to this level of detail, the "window shopping" approach won't work too well because the sample size is simply too small. One is lucky to find 1 or 2 swords that fit the requirements at any given time, and the statistical approach is not meaningful. So...back to "how much am I willing to pay?" and "what's available on the free market at the time I want to make my purchase?" I don't think there is a simple easy answer.

 

Regards,

Hoanh

[paulb]

Hi Kurt,

I think this subject has cropped up on numerous occasions since this board began and has been a subject of discussion long before that.

As far as I am aware there is no existing price guide (at least not in English) There are a number of guide lines relating to condition rarity age and size which can be seen in many references. But in reality I think the "It is worth what someone is willing to pay for it" is as accurate as it gets.

The only true guide is when looking at it are you willing to pay the asking price, if not then it isn't for you and you walk away, if it is then you buy it.

The only time this becomes an issue is if you are buying as an investment. I think everyone here and in the broader sword world would not recommend that as a good idea.

[Gabriel L]

Kurt,

 

It’s a less standardized market than some. Price is influenced by (absolutely not in any particular order):

 

• 
  Artistic quality
  Condition (polish, nakago, flaws, etc.)
  Age
  Rarity
  Size
  “Collectibility” (ancillary documentation, prime example of a particular feature, accessory items, part of a set, etc.)
  Paper level, date, comments, and organization
  Reputation of the seller
  Rating systems (e.g. Fujishiro)
  Featured in reference texts or exhibits
  And so on...
  

 

But of course you knew all that. The point is, how do you disentangle all these variables to come up with a single number? You develop a sense of price by watching deals go down over the years. Even if you don’t know the closing prices on some things, you can at least see the relative values by watching dealers’ sites/tables/shops, tracking auctions, trolling the classifieds, etc. Early on, NTBHK paper level (Hozon, TBH, Juyo, TBJ, etc.) offers a pretty good “bracketing” system for prices – one reason why papers are so desired in the first place, is because they significantly affect resale value.

 

Eventually it does come down to “how much am I willing to pay for this?” People, even educated and intelligent collectors, can have wildly different opinions on what makes something desirable or not.

 

Sorry that all I have to offer is this non-answer, but really that’s how it goes as far as I’ve ever been able to determine.

 

Cheers,

—GLL

[cabowen]

As others have said, there is no price guide.

 

Swords are each unique. Even among the works of the same smith, you will find greatly divergent prices being asked. Some blades by famous smiths are worn, tired, and a shadow of their former selves. These will be worth a fraction of what a healthy blade by that smith will fetch. Some smiths had a fairly large spread in the quality of their work. Some rank and file smiths made an outstanding blade once in a while that will be head and shoulders above their usual work. Length, a special order, a historical connection, etc., can all drastically influence price too.

 

This is yet another reason to specialize. By doing so, you will become familiar with the highs and lows of a segment and better able to judge a price.

 

And all the more reason to learn to recognize quality. Once you can separate the great from the good and the good from the mediocre, you will have come a long way in finding the answer to your question.

[obiwanknabbe]

My thanks to everyone who responded!

 

Indeed this is a very complicated field of study. That is likely one of the things that drew me in, aside from all the Samurai movies I grew up on. I believe specialization is an important tool in this game. Having started with Gunto blades, I have become familiar with the average going rates and the things to look for. Now that I am moving further back in history, I find myself gravitating towards late Shinto, early shinshinto period pieces. Looks like I have a whole new batch of things to learn before I break out the wallet again.

 

Good thing I don't sleep much.

 

Thanks again..

 

Kurt.K

[Geraint]

Hi Kurt

 

While nt exactly answering your question you might find the suggestions from this site interesting.

 

http://members.chello.nl/tfujimot/

 

All the best.

[seattle1]

Hello:

Some pretty good advice was give, however beware of the "its worth what you are willing to pay" dictum, as in fact the object of your affection might be worth considerably less. Willingness to pay and ability to pay are necessary requirements, but the real question, as you posed, is what is it worth? I think Chris Bowen came very close with the notion that the buyer has to have the ability to assess quality as the notion of "quality" captures much of the multidimensional differences that each individual blade carries.

The skill of quality assessment implies much study and knowledge of the criteria for a good blade and such can be acquired by book study, show attendance, conversations with fellow collectors and with dealers. There is lots of that kind of help out there for the seeker. Along the way you pick up some insight into a reasonable price by observing, as one does in the real estate market, sale prices, not asking prices, for comparables. Along the way you will also learn something about the rank orders of traditions, schools and smiths, as well as time periods. All other things equal a fine Kamakura era Yamashiro sword should be worth a multiple of a minor regional maker, as fine s that object might be.

Good hunting.

Arnold F.