Paper level for big names / attribution

[klee]

Good Evening 

 

How do the high end collectors generally read into big names attached to mid level papers ?

 

The 2 examples I see right now that jump out is the Den Go thats been talked about before 

 

https://www.aoijapan.com/katana-：mumei-unsigned-den-gonbthk-tokubetsu-hozon-token/

 

And a Shintogo Kunimitsu tachi 

 

https://eirakudo.shop/105943

 

With both big names having only TokuHo, is it reasonable to assume that both blades stayed at TokuHo due to the high probability of them being re-attributed to a lesser name if it went Juyo ? And is there definitive right or wrong path for an owner to take ? i.e try for Juyo or leave it at TokuHo

 

Thank you for any insight as im not familiar with the general politics in the papering side when it comes to titanic names 

 

-Kevin

 

[Robert S]

Or with those names, going from TokuHo to Juyo simply wouldn't provide any increase in value.  In cases like these I suspect the value's in the name, not the paper.

[Julien]

Since Jūyō shinsa operates differently and is significantly more expensive than Hozon or Tokubetsu Hozon, it can sometimes feel somewhat unpredictable. If a session is particularly strong, with many exceptional blades submitted, the competition becomes very intense, and a blade may fail to pass if it does not stand out even among already outstanding works. So, it may not pass the first time, but could be resubmitted a second, third time... As a result, the process can be quite time/cost consuming for dealers.
And as Robert pointed out, if the name and attribution stand out already, it can be enough, even without Jūyō papers or above... 

Edited yesterday at 03:31 AM by Julien

[Jussi Ekholm]

I am almost as far away from high end collector as you can be but I have spent lot of time with Jūyō data. First of all as a disclaimer I have to say I don't really like either of the swords.

 

The den Gō should in my mind be a slam dunk for Jūyō - Date family ownership, excellent polish, Kanzan Sayagaki, Tanobe Sayagaki. Still every year I know that items that are in my mind bound to pass fail, and some other items that are unimpressive to me pass. The mumei Shintōgo Kunimitsu katana just passed Tokubetsu Hozon in 2025. Now take the following what I will write with a big grain of salt but I have sometimes really felt that way, just as a disclaimer I am not quality focused collector but historical.

 

If you throw away the NBTHK papers attributing to Shintōgo Kunimitsu, would you pay 7,500,000 yen for that mumei sword? In my own opinion the NBTHK attribution sometimes carry too large value but market works how it works. Of course the fine workmanship of Shintōgo can not really be seen in few pictures. Still if I saw that mumei sword looking like it looks on the pictures I would just skip it without really even second thoughts about it, even if the price would be extremely lower than it currently is.

 

I know it is a controversial take but hopefully it can get the discussion going. 

[Hoshi]

Hello, 

 

Delicate questions.

 

In general, I recommend staying clear from recent TH papers to big names if you cannot assess it in hand and with sufficient experience studying higher level designations for said master. 

 

If this is not possible, only go in after having it appraised by someone who can hold it in hand, and has such experience. This is the value that a trusted dealer or collector friend brings. 

 

The reason for this is that the Shinsa panel is in a succession phase where it has to invest into new judges and ensure proper knowledge transmission - and this is a bumpy road. I has been so for a few years, let's see what happens at the upcoming Tokuju Shinsa. The last session had some eyebrow raising anomalies. For pieces attributed to Awataguchi Hisakuni, Shintogo Kunimitsu daito, Go Yoshihiro, Masamune without historical kiwame  a respected Hon'ami judge or an entry into the Kanto Hibisho, it is quite delicate at the moment. I would even be exercise caution right now with zaimei pieces. With this wide caveat in place, there are still incredible pieces that can surface from time to time. 

 

Value wise, every tier of paper de-risks the object, that's all it does, the object does not change, and it is this de-risking that drives market perception and creates the price premium.

 

If I'm a dealer and I tell you I have one of the best Nagamitsu, and it's sitting at TH, and I ask you 40 million yen for it, you're going to think I'm crazy. 

 

You won't believe me unless you have the knowledge to truly and deeply assess it, in relation to the corpus, and come up with your own conclusion that it is, in fact, one of the best extant Nagamitsu.

 

Now if I tell you it passed Juyo session 3, then Tokuju session 6, all of a sudden it's a different story probabilistically speaking it is very likely amongst the ultimate blades extant. Sure, it might be the 'lesser' of the series, but these sessions contained an incredible density of treasures and on average, they contained more peak works. Advanced collectors know this, and dealers too, forming common knowledge around these heuristics. 

 

On the other hand, if you're one of the most experienced collectors in Japan, and you've "seen it all" - you look at the blade and you just know.

 

You don't need the Juyo or Tokuju paper, you know what's out there, you've experienced most of it, you've been in the circles. You're ready to pay 40 million JPY in a blink for that blade sitting as a TH Nagamitsu. What's the value of his top blades? It's price = n/a. And the dealer might be very relieved you recognized it as such, and happy to sell it to you, because time is money and waiting for submission cycles is financially painful. He will put you into his serious client book, and propose you more such pieces in the future. 

 

If by miracle you get handed to you a zaimei Hisakuni tanto with denrai to the Imperial family -at Hozon- in good condition, it will be millions of dollars, and now the paradox kicks in that the buyer will be even happier as it's a secret blade that isn't recorded anywhere as some collectors just enjoy the secrecy a lot. 

 

This can help - for artists you follow, as you're looking for comparables out there, check out NW's artist database: https://nihontowatch.com/artists/nagamitsu-NAG281

 

Just be careful out there, if it looks like it's too good to be true, it probably is. 

 

I hope this helps, 

 

Hoshi 

 

[klee]

@Jussi Ekholm, @Hoshi

 

Thank you so much for the insight as always 🙏🙏🙏

 

My interests are similar to Jussi as I favor schools that produce rustic/stout blades. The sort of blades that would be considered " lacking elegance" and "artistic value" 😅

 

 

I dont think I will ever reach the level of ever considering blades at these price levels but intricacies and nuances when evaluating such blades will always fascinate me. I am very grateful to have knowledgable forum members for whenever these questions eat away at me.

 

Thank you again 🙏