Fair points all.
It was bought at a general estate auction, along side a few obvious "cosplay" examples. The images were limited (see below), and the auctioneers had no idea, and were not inclined to take it out or photograph it any more. It was in a glass case (unlike the cosplay ones), and my initial thoughts were it resembled a WWII sword. The AI indicated this was not the case and suggested it was a civilian sword and after quite a bit of questions and prodding it was quite adamant on this... You cant always ask the questions you would like before hand so took a punt. Never thought it was of any real value, and was surprised at the AI comments, particularly after getting it and taking some better shots.... and still having it say it was real.
To answer some of the questions. The leather wrap is dry and old. I deal with horses so see a lot of crap leather. Easy enough to remove, but dried in place for some time so held its shape (painted on outer side). Had to be carefully not to tear or damage it further. The same is real rayskin, two panels one each side that have simply shrunk with age/drying, these are certainly organic and not plastic. Yes the Tsube is a cast mess, it has two seppa (wafer thin) on either side. Did not remove the habaki to examine it, but it looks thin. The saya is wrapped in leather. There is enough tarnish, dirt, dust, scapes, and scratches to suggest it was not made yesterday.
I get its a fake. I do wonder why a fake would use real leather, and real rayskin. Why not just paint the Saya black. Use fake rayskin, and cord for the wrap. Why run the ray skin under the kashira. Why use two layers of brass/plate on the koiguchi when one would have had the same effect. Why put in a spring latch at all... same for the seppa... it would all cost money to produce on what would have been ultimately still a cheap fake, that would have looked remarkably similar without them...
Anyway its done. Now to decide what to do with it.