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Learning About Auctions

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There is still 6+ days left so I am sure it will rise a bit.


1 of my 2 swords was sold by Kanetoyo long time ago. However I would not personally be comfortable from buying anything from them based on their pictures. Based on their photos this does not seem to be in too good condition. It is difficult to say anything as they pictures are poor. I hope Nakamura-san will get some better pictures of his swords as it might boost sales a bit.


Kongōbyōe school is not too highly valued in general, it is wakizashi length and has NTHK papers. I personally like Kongōbyōe and NTHK papers but market is what it is... Can't say anything about koshirae as I don't know about those. To me koshirae looks quite nice, more desirable than the blade.

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On top of the factor's mentioned above:


Seller expectations adjust slowly. Nihonto Antiques is not a high throughput market - that means the process of price discovery and hence expectation adjustments takes longer. Low to mid-tier waks are on a downward trend due to increasing supply from Japan being dumped on the western market + post WW2 old collectors passing away with shinto wak troves seeking new acquirers. It's all supply and demand at the end of the day.  


A more general point: 


People don't go into collection nihonto 'at random' historically. There are periods of booms in demand and interest - such as the post WW2 treasure hunting era where baby boomers (and the previous WW2 vet generation) began to produce demand. That baby boomer period is coming to to an end and big collections are going to be increasingly dumped on the market. The real supply of some items being hoarded will be discovered by the market and prices will drop. New, young western collector are scarce and won't be able to produce as much demand as the previous generation. It's a gradual process...

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