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I'm Not Buying Swords Anymore, But If I Were...


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I have written countless times - plus a 15 page article published on NMB - on the subject, so I won't become a broken record and repeat myself yet again. Just one more general comment: I have yet to see a sword from a Japanese dealer offered on eBay that's a bargain. In my experience, those are the swords (and fittings etc.) that don't sell in Japan for a variety of reasons, and are subsequently put on eBay.com. There might be exceptions, but as I said, I haven't seen them yet.

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I have written countless times - plus a 15 page article published on NMB - on the subject, so I won't become a broken record and repeat myself yet again. Just one more general comment: I have yet to see a sword from a Japanese dealer offered on eBay that's a bargain. In my experience, those are the swords (and fittings etc.) that don't sell in Japan for a variety of reasons, and are subsequently put on eBay.com. There might be exceptions, but as I said, I haven't seen them yet.

 

Agreed, if you're living in Japan, even if you know nothing of Nihonto all you need to do is go to the local sword shop and you'll have a pretty good idea of what your swords worth. There's even books with all the list prices updated yearly. Somewhat like Toko Taikan but more about the pricing. Speaaking of which I'd be interested in such a book if anyone knows where I could get one.

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Let's backtrack a bit. The title for the opening thread was: I'm Not Buying Swords Anymore, But If I were...

 

Was this a lament, or a sound recommendation for a sword that the OP thought was an exceptional item. Peter Bleed called him out on this, and I was initially a bit put off by the tone his reply, but I think that he had a point to make. 

 

Just because one person approves it, or covets it, does not mean that it is necessarily a good buy. Unless, of course, the person recommending it is a sensei associated with the NBTHK or an equally qualified expert.

 

The seller is "reliable". Of course he is. Someone paid him $3100 for a mediocre piece. He is laughing all the way to the bank.

 

Yes, that Enju is very nice! That particular dealer is very reliable. But now you are referring to sword that costs over four times what the unattributed $3100 sword cost! This is just dreaming.

 

I am very wary of "recommendations" now. You have to know what is good, and what you want. There are too many distractions on the internet and on this forum.

 

Quote from Steve Jobs: 

 

Your time is limited, so don't waste it living someone else's life. Don't be trapped by dogma - which is living with the results of other people's thinking. Don't let the noise of others' opinions drown out your own inner voice. And most important, have the courage to follow your heart and intuition.

 

Alan

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With regard to the Enju, I don't personally consider the price tag "dreaming".  I have a number of high value swords up for sale, and buying the Enju was not at all an unrealistic goal if they had sold.

 

I think I know what you are referring to, Alan, when you say "dreaming".  That the blade is in a category perhaps not attainable to the average collector.

 

I don't necessary disagree with that.  However, I am living proof that if people set their sites on a goal (a valuable sword, for example) they can achieve it if they are willing to sacrifice for it, and are committed.  The Sengo katana I just bought, I raised the money for it by selling other collectibles and useful electronics, often at a loss, sometimes at a gain.  I opened a savings account, I spent alot of my free time at night listing things for sale on collectibles forums and on ebay.  Every penny I made on those sales I put into that savings account.  It didn't matter if it was $6 someone paid for an old book from the 60's, if I had that $6 in my paypal account, I would transfer it to the savings account.  

 

The blade is mine now.  :-)

 

Anyone can do this if they understand their life well enough, have the motivation for it, and have some way to make some money; preferrably some money they can store away and don't need to live.

 

I know many people probably know this, but I don't think that the average person who takes an interest in swords is thinking about a nihonto purchase in this way.  They want to buy a blade because they want to have a blade, and they are impatient much like I was in the past.  Regardless of their impatience, the idea of selling every single thing they have in their life that they don't care much about in order to buy that one thing they truly do care about, is not really a part of their reality.  Their stuff is THEIR stuff.  They want their stuff, mostly because they haven't considered its real value to them.

 

A very well respected merchant in the nihonto community once told me,and I'm paraphrasing, sorry, "If you want to be collecting high value items like nihonto, you need to have a warchest waiting and ready to jump on that one sword you've been waiting for."  Yet another reason why I advocated in an earlier post that if new collectors don't know what they want, they shouldn't buy anything.

 

So I'm going to be building my warchest for the time being, but it's not going to be for things like swords.  It's going ot be for the future.  Family, home, marriage.  Actual life.  I've got the swords i want.  If I get a windfall of money and can spare it, well maybe I'll buy a nihonto, but they are no longer the priority.  I made alot of mistakes along the way to get those swords, and I lost a bunch of money along the way too.  In truth though, people like that merchant I was paraphrasing above, they have lost alot more than I did.  If you're buying and selling swords that cost less than $7,000-9,000, then your potential losses are going to fit that category of price.  If you're buying and selling swords in the 5-6 figure category, your potential losses are going to fit that category of price.

 

I agree with other posters above here, patience is the key to selling, but it is also the key to buying things you want to keep.  So if someone really wants that Enju sword that Mike has for sale, think seriously about what you have in your life and what it is worth to you.  Is keeping those bits and pieces of stuff worth that Enju sword to you?  Is that Enju sword worth a potential down payment on a house to you?  New collectors look at what is for sale on a merchant's website, and they think of it as something they could buy now.  They don't think of it as something that they can buy when their warchest is built up.  There will be another Enju sword.  There will always be more swords, sold for bargains, sold because they have to sell, etc.  Build your warchest by knowing what is really important in your life, then sell everything else, and save as much as you can.

In summary:  Learn what you want by studying.  Evaluate the things in your life.  Sell and save to build your warchest.  Buy to keep.

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The seller is "reliable". Of course he is. Someone paid him $3100 for a mediocre piece. He is laughing all the way to the bank.

 

 

 Let's not forget that any item is worth exactly what the buyer and the seller agree upon at the moment of the sale.  :)

 

 Could someone buy a sword like the one in the OP for 1700-1800$ on the last day of a sword show, if the seller needed the money to fund the purchase of a much better piece which was about to fly 2000 miles away within a few hours? Most likely so.  But that doesn't mean this is the "market value" of that sword. As a matter of fact, from my experience, in the antique business the "market value" of any given item is a very loose figure.

 

 This being said, 3100$ was probably on the expensive side for the given item (which tends to happen a lot on ebay for low range nihonto sold by dealers) , but let's not make it like the buyer got "fried" big time or something like that.

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The beauty of auctions, it's

 

 Let's not forget that any item is worth exactly what the buyer and the seller agree upon at the moment of the sale.  :)

 

 Could someone buy a sword like the one in the OP for 1700-1800$ on the last day of a sword show, if the seller needed the money to fund the purchase of a much better piece which was about to fly 2000 miles away within a few hours? Most likely so.  But that doesn't mean this is the "market value" of that sword. As a matter of fact, from my experience, in the antique business the "market value" of any given item is a very loose figure.

 

 This being said, 3100$ was probably on the expensive side for the given item (which tends to happen a lot on ebay for low range nihonto sold by dealers) , but let's not make it like the buyer got "fried" big time or something like that.

 

Of course the buyer didn't get fried as at the end of the day they were willing to pay $3100. This is the beauty of auctions as the seller simply listed it starting at $500 which would of been a bargain and had no say on the realised price. At the end of the day if you have 2 people prepared to pay $100k for it it'll sell for that, if they're only willing to pay $500 it'll sell for that. So listing items onebay is good for |Japanese dealers as they hope and what often happens is people will pay more than what most would consider the "market value".

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The beauty of auctioThis is the beauty of auctions as the seller simply listed it starting at $500 which would of been a bargain and had no say on the realised price.

 

 Unfortunately that's not the case, as ebay allows sellers to see the maximum bid made by a buyer, regardless on the current bidding level.  So if you place a 3100$ maximum bid on an item that's currently sitting at 500$, the underhanded sellers would simply use another account to place a $3000 bid and raise you close to your maximum bid.  If this doesn't happen they simply close the auction early.

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ebay allows sellers to see the maximum bid made by a buyer, regardless on the current bidding level.  

 

No it doesn't - if it did this would be ridiculous as it would make shilling impossible to stop. You can only tell the maximum bid as a seller when another person has bid more. 

 

James

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No it doesn't - if it did this would be ridiculous as it would make shilling impossible to stop. You can only tell the maximum bid as a seller when another person has bid more. 

 

James

Maybe they changed it, I haven't sold something on ebay for a few years. Even if it works now as you described it, an underhanded seller can still use a dummy account with zero feedback to slowly raise the bid until he figures out the maximum. The he cancels the bids of the zero feedback account(s) and uses a "respectable" secondary account to bid just under the maximum bid of the unsuspecting buyer.

 What gives away the dishonest sellers using these methods is the bid history , bid cancellation and the history of the accounts in relation to each others.

 

Due to more and more sellers using these tactics I never do anything but last second sniping on ebay  and if I cannot be online at the time when the auction ends I simply either let the item go or make a very conservative bid and hope for the best.

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you can just snipe, there are plenty of programs available that way you do not have to be at your computer or post your bid early. If someone did as you suggest (raising bid and them removing it) it would be easy to spot and the buyer is notified when outbid and when the bid is removed. Ebay has plenty of problems but that type of shill bidding is usually caught quickly

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