$15k and NTHK

[Valric]

Tokubetsu hozon should not be a criteria for ascribing value above hozon provided one has the knowledge to understand the conditions under which TH is awarded. Namely, a blade without objectively described key flaws in a given period. 

 

This is why 10-20K is the danger zone. It's the middle of the ladder where dealers would make you believe TH sits only to draw a sucker on a "cheap 8K for TH". In this range, you get the bad session bottom barrel fluke Juyo or the overpriced, ladder-theory-infused TH. At 20K we enter the the domain of the Juyo 23 Tegai, Naoe Shizu, Mihara, Uda, Enju and co. Dealers buy these for 10K and sell them at 20K+ and tell you cheap for Juyo, Juyo is 40K, it's a deal! This is the level where the most profit is made from ladder theory arbitrage by drawing on greed, this is why its so dangerous. Now there are some great blades from these makers, but this is the domain where expertise is needed to sort the good from the bad, and where getting burn is exceedingly likely as a beginner. 

 

It's a minefield. 

[Jussi Ekholm]

First of let me say I am not biased in favour of either organization. Yes I am NBTHK member but I would be NTHK member too if they had a presence in Europe. I do plan to run both of my tachi (NBTHK papered) through NTHK shinsa just for fun if we will get one in Europe and I will be able to attend. Financially that makes 0 sense in my opinion but there is much more to this hobby for me than pure finances.

 

I personally feel NBTHK papers dominate totally financial side of things. And if you have highly ranked good sword there is no reason not to have it papered by NBTHK. As a collector I appreciate NTHK papers a lot but in my opinion they do not hold financial value. As Japanese and international dealers understand business side of things, they know the difference it makes if the sword has no papers / old NBTHK papers / NTHK papers / modern NBTHK papers.

 

@Prewar70  James was/is the sword you were looking at a signed and dated tachi by any chance?

 

There have been few very interesting NTHK attributions for mumei swords I've seen popping up online lately. They are in 1M+ range (well didn't see the asking price for the first one but...)

 

Kanemitsu: http://www.nihonto.us/O-KANEMITSU%20KATANA%20RT.htm

den Enju Kunisuke: http://chigaitakanoha.com/touken/cat01_item001.html

Ryōkai: http://chigaitakanoha.com/touken/cat01_item056.html

den Aoe Yasuyuki: https://www.seiyudo.com/ka-100313.htm

[vajo]

I agree with your words Chris.

The danger is also to wants to be an art collector without a reseller view. I'm not an art collector so me view is only if i ever want to sell later how are my chances to get my money back. If you buy art you must live with the possibility of loosing a lot of money. Its like stock trading. You need to do your due dilligence. If you only jumps in because other says it is art you have no clue what you are doing. And you need a good network for reselling expensive pieces.

[MWH]

“If you're a beginner in a vacuum: Buy the NBTHK attribution, not the blade

 

If you're a beginner with access to knowledgeable people with your best interest in mind: Buy what you're told to buy”

 

I think this is very good advice for beginner collectors and casual hobbyists.  You’ll never make money speculating but you probably won’t get burned either, and as long as, in all cases, you buy swords you appreciate/enjoy (that should be true, papers or no papers), the rules above seem better to me than assuming you know more than the experts (which, no matter who you are, you probably don’t).  Just my 2 cents.

 

There is, of course, one rule before all the others that will also serve you well - buy the books before the blades!

[Prewar70]

Jussi, to answer your question, yes.

[Surfson]

To answer the OP, I have lots of signed swords that I thought were good (I never submit unless I think so) and have NTHK papers.  If they are in good enough polish to enjoy, I don't bother with the NBTHK papers.  On the other hand, if I am having them polished in Japan, I will get NBTHK papers.  Not once, in at least 6-8 occasions, has a NTHK papered signed blade not papered the same at NBTHK.  If the sword is worth in the $15K range, I usually want a polish though, so the NBTHK papers are easy to get.  If you are considering a sword that has a fresh polish from Japan and has older NTHK but not NBTHK, you might want to ask a few questions about that.  

[Vermithrax16]

Tokubetsu hozon should not be a criteria for ascribing value above hozon provided one has the knowledge to understand the conditions under which TH is awarded. Namely, a blade without objectively described key flaws in a given period. 

 

This is why 10-20K is the danger zone. It's the middle of the ladder where dealers would make you believe TH sits only to draw a sucker on a "cheap 8K for TH". In this range, you get the bad session bottom barrel fluke Juyo or the overpriced, ladder-theory-infused TH. At 20K we enter the the domain of the Juyo 23 Tegai, Naoe Shizu, Mihara, Uda, Enju and co. Dealers buy these for 10K and sell them at 20K+ and tell you cheap for Juyo, Juyo is 40K, it's a deal! This is the level where the most profit is made from ladder theory arbitrage by drawing on greed, this is why its so dangerous. Now there are some great blades from these makers, but this is the domain where expertise is needed to sort the good from the bad, and where getting burn is exceedingly likely as a beginner. 

 

It's a minefield. 

Worth it's own thread, but have seen this argument made quite a bit across NMB. So under 3k is ok, over 25k is ok or say 30k to be safe from the crap. Well, that summarizes the slow but steady loss of people that will ever learn anything or appreciate nihonto. If you are paper crazy or chase the same 6-12 names everyone else chases, maybe this is true. Give me $15k and I can find something well worth appreciation and study.

[Rivkin]

I understand that NTHK and NBTHK can arrive at different conclusions.  Would you spend $15k on a signed blade with NTHK papers only or would you want to get NBTHK's results too?

 

Prewar, my personal take is that the "paper scare" does not really apply to signed blades as much. With a very few known exceptions, signed papered by NTHK NPO will repaper with NBTHK if submitted, and the seller can even be asked to guarantee it, again if it is required for whatever reason (15k I guess suggests a Juyo candidate, so maybe that's the game being considered). As it is, probably the blade is simply located outside of Japan and well, NTHK is more accessible there.

 

The paper scare comes in when you have a school (widely defined) and there are two masters, A and B and there is a big price differential between them, and one group papers it to A, another to B, and well whom do you trust.... and the honest answer can be that A and B probably left too few signed blades so it is hard to be certain where one begins and another ends. It gets kind of ugly though when 10 years difference in dating can shift the price by 10x.

 

P.S. And buying unpapered blades is also ok as long as you know both the sword and the school quite well.

P.P.S. Only a very brave person will guarantee that the blade will repaper for certain after the polish is redone. Especially if it is done outside of Japan, or by aggressively self-advertised Japanese expert. This one is just asking for trouble.

 

Kirill R.

[paulb]

I think there are some very good and interesting points made here. It also highlights some of the challenges faced today which were not so prevalent in the past. At risk of sounding like an old codger reminiscing, 20 years ago there was far less on an internet based sword community and far fewer papers flying around the market. People bought swords from dealers they knew and trusted (rightly or wrongly) and if they were unsure they sought the help of someone with greater experience. If I am honest I think we were possibly a little less obsessed with pricing and potential resale value but then again the amounts being paid were generally lower, not in real terms, but because we generally only had access to lower and mid range blades.
Today the market is more open the Internet has created a virtual community and the amount of information, good and bad, the number of swords and the volume of papers has exploded. Hence we get the discussions like the one above and the old clichés such as “buy the sword not the paper” and all the counter arguments appear. As I have used the aforementioned cliché let me explain my thinking. It is not an exhortation to rely on your own expertise which would require a great deal of study and confidence. What I mean, and maybe others too, is that your focus when looking should be the sword. Look for a Bizen Ichimonji, or a Hizen Tadayoshi or whatever (maybe just a blade with the hada you like) But don’t set out with the intention of “buying a Juyo”. Basic Principles I have tried to follow:
1. Like the sword you intend to buy
2. Buy the best you can afford (without over extending your finances)
3. Do not buy a sword as an investment. Accept that after many years of enjoyment you may not recover all of your initial investment.
4. If buying unseen (i.e. via the internet) buy from a buyer you trust. If it involves a large amount of money then I would always want some form of authentication such as a sayagaki from Tanobe sensei or a paper from the NBTHK. The type of paper isn’t actually that relevant its purpose is to validate the attribution. You should satisfy yourself regarding quality (do you like what you see) and condition.
A beginner 30 years ago spent a couple of hundred dollars on a WWII Showa-To and was happy to have that until they learned more and moved it on. Today many buyers here spend several thousand dollars on their first sword and through choice without access to the network of support available in the past through active clubs, shows etc. papers have therefore become more important.
For the record the most expensive blade I ever bought had a Hozon paper (it also had an older shumei and sayagaki by Tanobe Sensei)

[Jussi Ekholm]

As I believe I know the swords as there are not too many contenders that fit the criteria. Here is bit of an analysis about this tachi, just a personal opinion which may or may not be correct.

 

I think the asking price is reasonable and I believe the sword would achieve Tokubetsu Hozon papers from NBTHK. Even though this smith has relatively high Fujishiro ranking I don't think he is being considered amongst the top smiths of his era. It is of course positive that the sword is ubu but as NBTHK has been getting tighter in their Jūyō passes I'd think Tokubetsu Hozon would/could be where this one stops. As I looked at my books many Jūyō sessions that have featured tachi by this smiths have been the ones where lots of items passed, 14,19,20,23,24,25 (I do have a gap in there from 28 to 41 currently, and I just checked the first 25 and last pass) last tachi to pass Jūyō by this smith seems to be in session 56.

 

The sword seems to be in good condition as far as I can see from the pictures. I feel it might be bit rude to say but for me the sword seems quite average. Even though the shape gets compliments in the sales ad I personally don't like that sugata, short, little curvature and narrow in width. Note that this is just a personal thing and there are Jūyō tachi by this smith with quite similar sugata. But it is a good sword, just not one for me.

 

It's all relative, as I don't like the particular sword too much I wouldn't buy it even if it had NBTHK Tokubetsu Hozon and I would have the money for it. But I do feel the price might be right for the right buyer.

 

I think even that it sounds negative the advice that Chris gave earlier about "mid-range" being a minefield is a good one. I don't generally think it as a negative because it is telling the buyers to be on their toes. Spending 5k-20k on a luxury item is a lot of money for lot of us. It is really important to understand the market when stepping in here. Of course eventually when I have enough funds saved again I am going to step in this exact minefield, and possibly step on a mine, but I don't care too much if I like that one. When money is no object you can always go higher and higher but for some of the regular folks low and mid tier items are the reality with occasional chance for a high end. I think you need to just buy well in that particular budget. Good thing for this is tracking interesting items in different ranges. I've been doing that for years and years. I can always find some (what I consider good) deals in below 500k Yen, 1M Yen, 2M Yen, 3M+ Yen brackets on items that I personally like. There are so many swords up for sale at any given moment, it's just picking what you like the most. However Japanese sword market is a difficult one to grasp and there are lots of pricing decisions I do not yet understand...

[bigjohnshea]

Since this hypothetical blade is signed the organization is both confirming the signature and the quality of blade. Either is fine for that. There are references that they use to match the signature.

I think that if the blade is mumei, one might have a different view.

I'm of the school of buy the blade not the paper.

 

Barry,

I agree with buying the blade, not the school, and if I may add, not the paper.

 

All,

I'll add to that a lesson I learned recently, that if you are buying for your own enjoyment then the best shinsa is yourself.

 

As for Barry's comment regarding either paper being sufficient for signed blades, I must respectfully disagree. I have personally had signed blades of mine pass NTHK-NPO shinsa with 72 points by Miyano sensei, only to be submitted to NBTHK shinsa and fail being called gimei. I'll add the following, that this blade was worked on by a mukansa polisher who absolutely, 100% agreed with the Miyano decision... Let me elaborate by saying that this experience was mind numbing and infuriating! The implication of those two polar opposite outcomes is that not even the top sword scholars in this business will reliably agree on the veracity of a signature! A SIMPLE SIGNATURE!

 

If it was a mumei that had received two different attributions I would have completely understood. As a good friend once said "Once you remove a mei, any attribution is just one man's best guess." In my opinion, if you have bought a mumei sword with little knowledge of the school it has been attributed to (regardless of what paper) then you bought the paper, not the sword. The paper unfortunately can change in a heartbeat... If you judge the sword yourself first and foremost, and then decide if the paper agrees with you, then the paper never really mattered, did it?

 

In summary, signed or unsigned, if you are buying for your own enjoyment of the blade then the best shinsa is yourself. If the papers agree with you then they are the right papers.

[b.hennick]

John:

It takes a lot of study of good swords in-hand to get to that level of confidence. Viewing blades on-line will not in my humble opinion get you to where you need to be to make that purchase. I still consult my mentors before making an expensive decision. 

[Ken-Hawaii]

+1 

[brannow]

Full polish with Tokubetsu hozon papers from the NBTHK for sure.

[Gakusee]

So, which ones are the concrete swords we are talking hypothetically and theoretically above?

Thanks.

[Jussi Ekholm]

I do think it was this tachi by Moromitsu that sparked the original post. http://www.nihontocraft.com/Bizen_Moromitsu_Tachi.htmlThis was the one I thought immidiately when reading the OP and there are not too many signed & dated tachi at that price with NTHK papers for sale at the moment.

 

There is of course lots of theoretical and hypothetical discussion but I was referring to this particular sword.

[SteveM]

I'm sure I have said "buy the sword, not the paper" more than once. If I have said this, I hope it was to advise a beginner to look closely at the sword, and to not obsess over something that is secondary to sword. So many times we get somebody who is interested in swords, and they are desperate to know more about the sword, but they don't know what to look for, or how to look at the sword. They post a message that says, "I have a chance to buy this samurai sword for $1000, is it worth it?", and in the post they will send us three blurry pictures of a tsuka with frayed wrapping. These are the people who need to look at the sword before they start worrying about authentication or papers. But its hard for a newbie to wrap their head around sword appreciation versus treasure-hunting. The phrase "buy the sword, not the paper" is an easily remembered reality check of sorts. We should all aspire to attain a level where we don't need the NBTHK's affirmation, but that is a very difficult level of expertise to achieve. And even then, the papers are extremely useful when reselling (or when our inheritors resell). I hope nobody has ever interpreted the phrase "buy the sword, not the paper" to be interpreted as "the paper is valueless". This is especially true for mid-price swords, which, for me starts at about $10k. Note that by "mid-price" I don't mean middle of my price range... but this is a topic for another thread. 

[Prewar70]

Yes that is the sword that sparked the question.

[Gakusee]

Good sword. Thanks, Jussi and James. For the period, it is as it is supposed to be, showing Oei traits well.