Swords imported from Japan......

[Ed]

I also don't see that there are any papers with the blade, and assume that it is likely to be gimei, if you bought it from Japan without papers.  

 

This should have been on an episode of Myth Busters.  

The idea that if a blade comes from Japan without papers it is gimei, is total nonsense.

 

Stop and think about that statement.

 

Didn't every Japanese sword come from Japan?

 

How many people here have had swords with no papers that later papered? Plenty!

 

I have imported many swords from Japan which had no papers, yet later papered.

 

Certainly, gimei is a possibility, but it is just as unlikely as likely.

 

Which is the best reason for study, so you can make an educated decision.  

Even if that decision only gets you close enough to decide whether the probability of passing warrants a submission to shinsa. 

 

There are many swords imported which are gimei, gimei is a common occurrence seen in Japanese swords.

Many swords have been imported with papers which were gimei.

Many swords with papers have later been deemed gimei. 

Many swords deemed gimei later papered.

 

Papers are just an opinion, and the blades are subject to varying interpretations or opinions.

 

So to profess that just because a sword comes from Japan without papers it is gimei, is nothing more than misinformation.

 

Please, please stop perpetuating this harmful and inaccurate myth.

[Curran]

I would say this is true of fittings too.

 

I know of several big name fittings to come out of Japan, unpapered. While there are some instances of provenance and buyer knowing what they are, so why bother with papers....   there have been others where they were assumed gimei and then were put through shinsa and papered.

    There have been other instances where something is up for sale and I am asked my opinion on the signature. In one where I really could kick myself, I had instantly dismissed it as gimei for being unpapered to one of the most highly regarded maker of fittings. When asked again by the new owner, I hit the books and thought it looked surprisingly good.

 

It is now Juyo. I think it has a chance for Tokubetsu Juyo. That one stings a bit.

[Brian]

While I agree with you both, the circumstances are usually around swords or fittings, bought online, from a dealer in Japan, that does have easy access to shinsa, and is sold for a price that is far less than the shoshin equivalent. Then you should be asking yourself why.

[Curran]

While I agree with you both, the circumstances are usually around swords or fittings, bought online, from a dealer in Japan, that does have easy access to shinsa, and is sold for a price that is far less than the shoshin equivalent. Then you should be asking yourself why.

 

When it comes to fittings, it is surprising how little some dealers know or care.

 

There are dealers that really know their stuff, and there are famous big dealers who should know something but just view it all as product and make -sometimes big- mistakes.

I have had conversations with a few where I thought they certainly spent their life swimming in the sword end of things and barely know which way a tsuba goes on a sword.

 

The focus of Ed's post is on swords, so I'll step out here.

[Ed]

That is just not true Brian.  Most of the dealers and collectors in Japan don't have near the focus on papers as we westerners do.  Yes, they have easy access to shinsa, but they generally don't rely on papers or don't care to incur the costs on what they deem merchandise. 

 

There are lots and lots of big name pieces, swords and fittings sold by dealers in Japan who later paper.  There is at least one member here who if he would, chime in and tell you how many tsuba he has bought from big name dealers in Japan and then papered them to Juyo. You would not believe it.

 

And though my focus was initially regarding swords, it is the same for fittings.

 

I will stand adamantly by my comment that because a blade comes from Japan without papers it is gimei, is total nonsense!

[Peter Bleed]

I think that Ed is over-making a fair point. Buy the sword not the papers, .   .      yahh-dahhh-yahhh dah.

BUT, getting a sword "papered" in easy and fun to Japanese collectors. There is also a lot of "action" in the Japanese sword world. And Japan certainly is the best market for Japanese swords.

Thus, I think it has to be safe to assume that a sword that is being exported from Japan HAS been formally evaluated and assessed. So, if  it ain't got papers, you have to bet that it tried but missed...

I am impressed that some American dealers are currently sayign some version of ,  "this sword has not been submitted..."

Just saying...

Peter

[Valric]

Dealers want to make money. If papering a sword increases the money they make, they will get the sword papered. This is simple. Those that do not act as profit-seeking go bankrupt and are replaced by dealers who follow market incentives. To say that dealers don't care about papers just does not make sense at all. If the blade has a big name, they absolutely care about getting Hozon. If the name is too small to even bother with papers, they don't care. This is why most iron tsubas and low grade nihonto aren't papered, it's not worth the cost and hassle. Dealers are rational creatures and those that aren't simply cease to exist. 

 

As for the general point, It's a question of probability. To say that all unpapared or old papered blades coming from Japan are gimei is obviously not true, just like saying that none of them are gimei. The real questions are, what are the factors that increase, or decrease, the probability of fraud? I use fraud here because Gimei is just one way. But passing off Shinshinto blades as Koto, or a mumei Hankei as a Shizu are all the sort of things which fall into this wider bucket of swindling. 

 

If it's unpapered with a big name, and sold by a dealer at a 'special price' then it's 99.99% gimei. If the dealer is online then it's even worst (less reputation consequences). If we go on Yahoo auction fishing for bargain Masamune or Kyomaro then we're deep into the fraud swamp. If it's sold by a widow's estate liquidator who happens to have found a few swords under the rug, one being signed Kanemitsu, then maybe it's Soshin. Chances to access the later for a westerner are extremely slim. 

 

This is how we should think, to break it down:

 

1. Expertise of the source. High expertise: Fraud %+

2. Price. Price point below market to trigger greed: Fraud %+

4. Name. Big name: Fraud %+

3. Consequence of Fraud. Anonymous, low consequence interactions: Fraud %+

 

It's better to profess caution and skepticism than to let beginners get burned and drop out of the hobby. 

[Surfson]

Having been the original poster who made the statement referred to as "nonsense", "misinformation" and "perpetuating a harmful and inaccurate myth", I feel that I have to respond.  

 

I never said that all swords without papers in Japan are gimei, so please don't put those words in my mouth.  My original statement was about a sword that was purchased without papers from Aoi arts.  And I assumed that it was gimei (I labeled this as an assumption, not a certainty).

 

Perhaps it would have been fairer or more accurate if I had said "if a signed sword on Aoi has no papers, then it is usually gimei."  

 

Of course there are signed shoshin swords in Japan with no papers, but let's not "over-make a fair point".  

 

Brian, Peter and Chris all have it right I believe, and I will add - yea, what they said!  

[Ed]

Thus, I think it has to be safe to assume that a sword that is being exported from Japan HAS been formally evaluated and assessed.  So, if it ain't got papers, you have to bet that it tried but missed...

Peter, That seems like rather grandiose thinking.  Do you really believe that every exported sword has been FORMALLY evaluated and assessed?   Please explain to me why so many unpapered swords receive papers every year?  Were not the majority of these swords legally exported from Japan ? 

 

So, if it ain't got papers, you have to bet that it tried but missed...

That is worse misinformation to spread than the topic of this post.

 

I have imported too many swords bought from dealers in Japan with no papers, which were papered later upon shinsa submission to even consider your position. 

 

To say that all unpapared or old papered blades coming from Japan are gimei is obviously not true, just like saying that none of them are gimei.

That is exactly what I said.

"Certainly, gimei is a possibility, but it is just as unlikely as likely".

 

 

(let me get your words right), to “assume that it is likely to be gimei, if you bought it from Japan without papers”.  

I am not over-making anything, and I wasn't really singling you out, I have been hearing this nonsense for years. The point is that this myth regarding Japanese swords being likely gimei if they come from Japan without papers is simply not true.

 

As I said originally, certainly, gimei is a possibility, but it is just as unlikely as likely.

 

It's better to profess caution and skepticism than to let beginners get burned and drop out of the hobby. 

 

I beg to differ. 

I think better to be truthful and not scare off new potential buyers, by providing information which is inaccurate.

And the statement, “assume that it is likely to be gimei, if you bought it from Japan without papers”, is inaccurate. 

 

I think it better to know that a sword exported from Japan may be gimei, but it just as well may be shoshin.

 

I think it better to encourage study and educating oneself in order to increase the odds of making a better decision on any sword you consider buying.  

 

I will leave it at that, take from it what you will, believe what you will, but for new collectors, know that not all swords which are exported from Japan without papers are gimei.

[Surfson]

Well, now that we have straightened this one out, anybody want to tackle NBTHK Green Papers?   (just kidding).

 

I think all points have been made on both sides of this discussion.  

[Ken-Hawaii]

 

"Certainly, gimei is a possibility, but it is just as unlikely as likely".

Ed, are you really saying that it's equally likely an unpapered blade is shoshin as it is gimei?

[Peter Bleed]

Ed,

Maybe I'm coming off of a bit of shinsa disappointment. Certainly we all know that shinsa assessments are subject to change and variation. And there is no question that there are undiscovered swords in Japan. So, if you have trustworthy purveyors in Japan who can supply worthy swords at prices suited to the Gaikoku market, you are fortunately indeed.

Peter

[Ed]

Ken,  I am saying that not all swords that come out of Japan without papers are gimei.  Nothing more, nothing less.

[Vermithrax16]

I'll just add another myth to this list that's worth thinking about:

- green papers or no papers to some obscure smith, good

- no papers but obscure smith in fittings, probably good

 

BLOWN away at the number of fakes for even seldom notated makers; after research, study, and asking around, many fakes. This makes zero sense, but it's real and it's prevalent.

[TETSUGENDO]

The fakers are getting smarter, they are becoming aware of, and are exploiting previously unexplored ploys.

 

-S-

[Brian]

Enough guys.
Ed, no-one can possibly say that all swords out of Japan without papers are gimei. That would be stupid and wrong.
But we also cannot say that dealers familiar with sales online and especially to the West have just as much chance of selling shoshin as gimei.
There is a middle ground.
It's obvious and doesn't need too much debate. If you as a buyer know your dealer, and know how he works..by all means take a chance and hold thumbs. If you don't know the seller, he does frequent exports and gives no expectations of it being shoshin..then use caution. Buy as gimei...and celebrate your luck if shoshin.
We cannot generalize too much, but we also need to give guidelines. Comes down to common sense.

[Bugyotsuji]

The fakers are getting smarter, they are becoming aware of, and are exploiting previously unexplored ploys.

 

-S-

StevenK touches on something here. Since the demand for papers has risen so high abroad, and since the NBTHK machine really started churning through 6.000 swords a year, of which maybe 4,000 get papered, even as their quality of judgement may actually be rising, the overall situation has probably started to change. By burning my fingers I have come across things the fakers have done but the dealers have not spotted. To be confident in spotting some of these would make you a serious expert.

 

Not agreeing or disagreeing with anyone, just throwing this into the pot. I would add though, it is important to know who you are buying from.

[Surfson]

 Ed's quote:

"I am saying that not all swords that come out of Japan without papers are gimei.  Nothing more, nothing less."

 

I don't disagree with this.

 

 

My quote:

"I also don't see that there are any papers with the blade, and assume that it is likely to be gimei, if you bought it from Japan without papers."

 

I still stand by this very qualified statement (assume...likely), especially if the sword is purchased from Aoi or other online dealers. 

 

I think that both quotes can stand on the middle ground that Brian mentioned.

[Ed]

Ed, no-one can possibly say that all swords out of Japan without papers are gimei. That would be stupid and wrong.

 

 

 

 

But they do say or imply exactly that and have for years.

Peter's comment, "So, if it ain't got papers, you have to bet that it tried but missed..."

Robert's comment, “assume that it is likely to be gimei, if you bought it from Japan without papers”.  

 

certainly, gimei is a possibility, but it is just as unlikely as likely.

 

In retrospect, perhaps I should have worded this comment better.  I did not mean to imply that there were any ratio's such as a 50/50 chance, involved.  

 

All I meant is what I have said from the beginning: 

NOT ALL swords that come out of Japan without papers are gimei. 

Nothing more, nothing less!!!

 

Should you use caution, absolutely!!

 

I can't help but wonder if some of you didn't read my original post, or misunderstood my meaning, as I clearly wrote:

1. There are many swords imported which are gimei, gimei is a common occurrence seen in Japanese swords.

2. Many swords have been imported with/without papers which are gimei.

 

What I have tried, yet apparently failed to do is to encourage collectors to study opposed to blindly accepting information.

If there is a flaw in that concept, I apologize.

[Peter Bleed]

This remains an interesting thread. Thank you Ed.

I happen to have lived thru the great process that sent swords (poorly assessed and usually underpriced) BACK to Japan. NOW, I think I am seeing the ebb tide of that process. Stuff that went  to Japan has  been (largely) organized and assessed. Japanese society likes regularlty, order and hierarchy. It also happens that altho interest in Nippon-to remains substantial - ie. there is a DEMAND. But due to the effectiveness of the folks who ran the earlier return phase, SUPPLIES are now LOW outside of Japan. In this situation, laws of economy say there  will be flow out of Japan.

Every sword in Japan - with very few exceptions, - has been assessed. Toroku Shinsa are overseen by guys who read in the signature and passed them to the owner. In that and other steps - ie getting it polished, buy sword bags, having tea with other guys, etc etc, - information is distributed. All of that is way different from "a shinsa". You can't take that to the bank. But swords in Japan exist with assessment.  My point is that sword coming out of Japan are not being offered by completely naive providers. They may be dumb, or tired, or eager to be rid of a sword, but they DO have information. 

Peter

[Valric]

 

 

Every sword in Japan - with very few exceptions, - has been assessed.

 

I think we should qualify this statement further. Every sword from sources accessible to the vast majority of westerners has been assessed. 

 

Assessed doesn't necessarily mean Shinsa. When in doubt, Shinsa is a gamble and you may lose money at Hozon. It's also a time sink. Money now is worth more than money later. What it is guaranteed to mean is that someone professional in the food chain had a close look at it, and in most cases it was purchased in the sword dealer internal auction, meaning that a lot of experienced dealers gave their best guess. 

 

The big fish in Japan find new swords every year. In fact, one of them even has a business of handling estates with a group of experts, a glossy website, and a reputation. This is where new swords are found, which go on to fuel the shinsa process for the latest session. This is where the whales compete and profits are made: in access to these estates. Fresh, new, top blades are still found there, and judging by the inputs in Shinsa, it doesn't seem like the supply of top blade has dried out yet. I haven't seen any evidence of inflation, and in fact quite the opposite, which makes me suspicious of supply-side gaming a la DeBeers but this is a topic for its own post.  

 

Collector Estate->Big Fish->Internal dealer auctions for triage->Dealers->the vast majority of us. That's the food chain we're dealing with. Everyone at each level had a look, and applied his markup in order to make a profit, or not lose money at the very least. Sometimes mistakes are made, the lower the presumed level of the item and the more volume oriented the business model, the more likely the mistake because it's just not worth it to spend time in study. 

[TheGermanBastard]

You have to apply sort of a modiefied Lasswell formula:

 

Who sells what to whom in which chanell / market with what intention ...

 

If it is a big name from a big dealer without paper => Error

 

If it is a small name without paper => Reasonable

 

If it is a big name from a none professional => I do not know. Everything possible ...

[raynor]

I think western focus on papers is a lot higher then in Japan, unless a dealer specializes in the western markets the lack of papers might not mean as much as someone non Japanese might percieve.

 

That said papers from NBTHK and either of the two NTHK incarnations are a valuable bar for not so experienced collectors against the steadily improving scammers.

[TheGermanBastard]

That said papers from NBTHK and either of the two NTHK incarnations are a valuable bar for not so experienced collectors against the steadily improving scammers.

 

[raynor]

Oh youd be surprised how many (in the west) buying papers with a sword not a sword with papers

[TheGermanBastard]

No I would not and am not.