Pragmatism

[Steve Waszak]

Darcy recently added another excellent entry on his blog, this one titled "Pragmatism."  I highly encourage giving it a read. 

 

https://yuhindo.com/ha/

 

Briefly, Darcy notes the extreme unlikelihood (read impossibility) that some lucky collector will be able to sniff out an ultra-rare and important treasure when that treasure is in Japan, and is being offered by a Japanese seller on a Japanese auction site for next to nothing.  Darcy's very logical argument is that this seller---if he thought he even might have the real thing---would take advantage of his proximity to the wealth of knowledgeable dealers, collectors, and experts there in Japan to verify that the piece in question was genuine.  Whereupon, if discovering that the item was not, he might look to dump it onto an auction site at some low-ball price, wanting to be rid of the fake.  In other words, if we happen upon an item in a Japanese auction that is purported to have been made by an important smith and is being offered for relatively little money, we should recognize how improbable it is that this would actually be an authentic work by that smith, and not waste our time and funds on such a piece.

 

I don't think there is much room for disagreement with Darcy's assessment here.  However, "never say never" is a sentiment that can keep hope alive, even in the face of the pragmatism Darcy is encouraging all of us to practice.  For there are exceptions to (nearly?) every rule.  Once in a full lunar eclipse blue moon, a treasure can fall through the cracks.  This example, while not sword-related, still proves essentially analogous, I think:

 

https://paleofuture.gizmodo.com/everyone-thought-this-coin-from-the-california-gold-rus-1825498372

 

Of course, in this case, the item did turn out to be authenticated by a higher-level expert after having been rejected as fake by a number of lower-level authorities, but imagine if the coin had been put into auction after several of these (still knowledgeable and experienced) lesser experts had declared it not to be genuine.  My point here is that, while Darcy's advice is excellent and should absolutely be the rule of thumb in navigating the waters of Japanese auctions, we need to do our own studying and research such that if and when an important "blue moon"-type item does appear, even though we recognize that the item in question most likely will have been circulated (and rejected as genuine) among experts in Japan, our own studies may allow us to remain open to the possibility that a gem has slipped through those admittedly tight cracks. 

 

We are talking about once-in-a-lifetime sorts of situations here, though, so Darcy's caveat still holds with resonance:  Don't plan on winning the lottery, even if there are such things as lottery winners.  Lottery winners are not quite unicorns, but for all pragmatic purposes, they may as well be. 

 

Hope may spring eternal, but focused, smart, and diligent study is really what can give substance to that hope...

 

Cheers,

 

Steve

[TheGermanBastard]

Hello Steve,

 

I fully agree to Darcy.

 

Buying an unpapered (old papered) big name dude in Japan is like picking up an allready played lottery ticket that some othe rguys has thrown away as it was a failure.

 

Anything really big has with a 99.9% chance been run through the Japanese Shinsa system and been pinked - unless you buy it from somone who has no clue about this whole thing.

 

There is of course a random chance that the NBTHK or NBTHK can be wrong and it is really good - but how would you prosper from that case? You would still have an unpapered sword ... no good.

 

I have bent down and picked up that lottery ticket in the past thinking I was smarter. The truth is I was just damm stupid ...

[eternal_newbie]

Sure, this $2000 blade with Kicho papers might be a Juyo-worthy blade that I could resell for - on average - $30,000. There are around 10,000 Juyo blades out of 2 million registered blades, so that makes the odds around 0.005. If it turns out to be a Juyo-level blade, I will need to spend at least $10000 on a good polish and shinsa to get those papers.

 

($30000 - $10000) x 0.005 = $100 return on average for $2000 spent.

 

Sure, you might be able to resell the blade to some other sucker to make up for the money you spent - but then you're becoming part of the problem (and you'll lose some money in the fees/conversion/opportunity cost in the meantime figuring out that your 'diamond in the rough' is really a bit of broken glass).

 

And of course, those with real expertise will know that the proportion of blades on eBay at the Juyo level are significantly less than the proportion of blades in general at Juyo level, so the odds are even lower than that...

[ROKUJURO]

Steve,

i fully agree. 

.....My point here is that, while Darcy's advice is excellent and should absolutely be the rule of thumb in navigating the waters of Japanese auctions, we need to do our own studying and research such that if and when an important "blue moon"-type item does appear, even though we recognize that the item in question most likely will have been circulated (and rejected as NOT genuine) among experts in Japan, our own studies may allow us to remain open to the possibility that a gem has slipped through those admittedly tight cracks. .....

Did I understand that right?

[Steve Waszak]

Hi Jean,

 

Yes...  What I meant there was "rejected because it wasn't seen as being genuine." 

[vajo]

You can find treasures only there where treasures laying around. On roofs and in dark cellars, from old people who passed away in countries outside Japan. ???? As collectors we are the treasure maker for the next generation when our time is coming ????

[rkg]

Steve,

 

When I read this I got out of it that Darcy was talking about a more specific situation - specifically swords attributed to big names/groups, often with dodgy papers.  I'd posit they're actually more of a special case - almost by default swords in Japan get looked at by lots of eyes - if you find one in the wall, you're supposed to take it to the cops and get it registered at the very least (or you panic and hand it off to somebody who is probably going to be knowledgeable 'cause you -know- they're illegal to just own w/o doing -something-) Even if they're hated, the general public has an inkling that they might be worth something so they get shown, etc etc. The odds of getting a "treasure" though that network at a steal price is really really low...

 

Fittings are nearly as bad (the dealer industrial complex seems to be good at sweeping up anything special before it escapes into the wild), though sometimes they miss things that incorrectly described/really badly imaged...

On the other hand, for other less known items/items that don't have to be registered... you might be surprised - I mean, the whole shtick of Antiques roadshow is finding people who have a family heirloom or something they bought at a garage sale/thrift store cheep, shocking the sh*t out of them with the value and filming their reactions - and they have -no shortage- of people to shock...  And, FWIW, I've been there on shoveling out relatives' houses, where you just don't care anymore that something -might- be valuable, you just start sending it to the goodwill or throw it out at a garage sale cheep  (or put it on ebay w/no research and with bad pictures) because you need it gone, -now-...

 

That said, I think Darcy is correct in stretching the special case of swords to the general case that its still not the way to bet - unless you study and either know or have a fair guess at what you are looking at (and even then bidding with your grocery money is probably a bad idea).

rkg

(Richard George)

[TheGermanBastard]

Darcay is in my humble oppinion one of the smartest guys in the (English speaking) sword world. His reasoning is brilliant. His blog offers great wissdom and a must read.

 

As Christopher says you can still find treasure troves out there. Things that have been forgotten for long time and turn up one days with somebody who does not know what he actually has.

[SteveM]

if you find one in the wall, you're supposed to take it to the cops and get it registered 

 

Slight correction; you take it to your regional Board of Education to get it registered. 

[Surfson]

I do not disagree with Darcy's main thesis.  However, there are some subterranean holes that can transmit great pieces sometimes.  There are lots of Japanese dealers that now sell on ebay.  Most of what they sell is relatively low quality, often the papers are green papers, and I suspect that the "polish" that these blades often have is not done with the classical rigor.  However, a friend or two of mine have, on occasion, pulled some important pieces, especially fittings, from ebay auctions by these Japanese dealers.  It must be that some of them are not that knowledgable but create a niche by being able to move lots of pieces through the internet using English as the main language.  They have a team of young folks helping them and must have creative ways to beat the bushes to get folks to send along their fittings and swords.  

[TheGermanBastard]

Hello Bob,

 

you can strike great deals from the Japanese dealers as the market is slow. But what do you mean by important? Personally I think it is about near impossible to buy a blade out of Japan that will be worth let's say 10 times of your investment.

 

I barely use the word important.

[Surfson]

Hi Luis.  I find it nearly impossible to buy a blade anywhere and make ten times my investment!  I am talking mostly about fittings purchases that I have heard about (things like Jingo or Kanayama popping up unnoticed..... 

[Guido]

Slight correction; you take it to your regional Board of Education to get it registered. 

 

Slight correction : the finder has to contact the crime-prevention section of the district police (keisatsu-sho-bōhan-ka 警察署防犯課). There a hakken-todoke 発見届 certificate is issued to enable the finder to attend the tōroku-shinsa 登録審査 at the kyōiku-inkai  教育委員会, the regional board of education.

[TheGermanBastard]

Hi Luis.  I find it nearly impossible to buy a blade anywhere and make ten times my investment!  I am talking mostly about fittings purchases that I have heard about (things like Jingo or Kanayama popping up unnoticed..... 

 

Hello Bob,

 

I think you could do with an important blade where your cost of investment is about 4 - 5k and you resell at 40 - 50k. Chances of this are very small though. I think you can buy blades from Japanese dealers at 1 - 2k that are worth around 4 -5k. That is a heck of a deal. But really important stuff is hard to come by.  Fittings in general don't seem to fetch top money on ebay. I believe the maximum potential gain is bigger. Also due to the fact that fittings move much slower. Hence it is never a good idea to put a tsuba at USD 1.00 opening bid on ebay. It just won't find its audience in time.

 

I see many decent fittings coming out of Japan at dirt cheap prices. Just considering how much it would cost to do a modern fitting as a replacement it is a joke. So many nice Fuchi / Kashira for example that can be haved at 200 - 300 bucks. If I get the plumber for half a day I allready have to pay that and he neither flushes down Shakudo in my toilett nor - with all due respect - is it marvelous art he does there.

[Jussi Ekholm]

I think there was a mumei blade with Tokubetsu Kichō and attribution den Masamune sold at Japanese auction and posted at NMB recently which might have inspired the posting? http://www.militaria.co.za/nmb/topic/25489-masamune-for-only-23k/

 

In general I will agree with Darcy as I don't think myself as smart and educated enough to outsmart the market. I will rather save my pennies and grab one decent sword somewhere along the way rather than gamble away my money with potential treasures (I just don't have funds for that).

 

Lucky finds happen from time to time however. I remember talking with few German collectors on our way to eat in Berlin, about an ebay find which went through papering up to Jūyō papers straight away. I don't remember the details all that well so I'll leave them out as I don't want to write misinformation. Needless to say someone made an amazing find but for every one of these success stories there are dozens and dozens of failures.

 

This might be bit harsh to say but I think here in "Western world" we overvalue low-mid quality swords. Where as Japanese dealers are more up to speed on their actual value. Which makes two slighty different markets which comes down to what Luis wrote above that we might see something in Japan as a really good deal while it in reality is just according to market prices but we know that in Western market you could possibly flip it for some money. Sometimes you can see the same swords being offered in different countries over the years if you track items.