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Valric Experienced

Valric

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A couple of swords were fetched at bargain prices, all papered. I think 4 of them in total, including the gassan, norimitsu and the yamato tachi. Similar swords on mid-tier dealerships like AOI would go for 2x, easily. 

 

What struck me were all the people buying the unpapered/obvious gimei stuff at a premium. I mean, those items have been scrutinized by previous owners, their papers tossed away, and then onto the next sucker. Those things sold. Muramasa old papers? you bet, it's shoshin. It seems that the aggregate collectors are interested in paying a premium for a lotto ticket with terrible odds. 

 

There was basically one really precious sword and it didn't hit reserve. 

 

There were also some greedy sellers with high reserve. The 'Sue-Sa' school sword with 'missing' inlay (obviously gimei then removed) was perhaps the most interesting - but the reserve priced as if it was something truly special, which it wasn't. I think sellers are keenly aware of the gamble premium, and if they aren't happy with the attribution they'll toss the papers and put it on auction hoping to recoup. 

 

Market is down when it comes to the mid-range papered swords, that much is clear. Shoddy gambles still faring well. You could basically take some bungo, uda, mihara, mumei suriage shinshinto swords with paper, dress them up, toss away the attribution, and get more for them that what you paid for as the crowd is eager to roll the dice hoping for that tier 1 attribution. 

 

It's not rational and gives a nice demonstration of some behavioral economic theory. Low odds are overestimated and people are willing to pay a premium (see prospect theory). For those who took part in auctions in the past, did you notice the same thing? or was this one truly an outlier. 

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Gakusee Mentor

Gakusee

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The auction shows us that we might think highly of our average swords but the market is merciless. This applies to old and new swords (all the Gassans we have been elevating in the separate thread). It brings back the old dilemmas and conversations we have had in separate threads about why we should buy (because we like it and derive gratification from it) as opposed to necessarily hoping to recoup funds or make profits.

I am also amazed at the gimei gambles across fittings and swords in that auction.

The top end swords were overpriced, in a few instances with audacious guide price ranges.

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Valric Experienced

Valric

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Indeed Michael. 

 

Dealer prices on average swords are no-go, except for extremely rare exceptions. The market is flooded with average stuff, and the quantity of nihonto collector isn't increasing to absorb it all. It's just just supply and demand, and people should update their expectations accordingly. If you want to buy an mid-tier sword, sign up on bonham or christies - you'll pay peanuts compared to dealership as the market is losing interest and dealer still convey to us a different impression. Tosogu are in the same state, so much supply floating around with inflated estimates and people still buy.  

 

This goes back to the 'wide' vs 'tall' collections. The more 'tall' you are the lower your rent, and you may even get dividends if you're 'extremely tall'. 

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